NO WINNER IN MEXICO'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS UNTIL

UNCLAS MEXICO 003662 E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL MX SUBJECT: NO WINNER IN MEXICO'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS UNTIL JULY 5 ¶1. (U) Mexico's Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) announced July 2 that frontrunner presidential candidates Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (Revolutionary Democratic Party -- PRD) and Felipe Calderon (National Action Party -- PAN) were effectively neck and neck after both exit polls and quick counts were tallied. As a result IFE will not declare a winner in the presidential contest until all the votes are tallied July 5. Post recommends NO congratulatory or other calls be made until IFE's vote count is complete and officially announced. ¶2. (U) In other races, the PRD as expected won the contest for Mexico City mayor, with candidate Marcelo Ebrard taking an early and large lead. Preliminary results indicate the PAN won gubernatorial contests in Jalisco, Morelos and Guanajauto. Prelminary congressional results indicate that the PAN (35 percent) and PRD (31 percent) gained some ground at the expense of the Institutional Revolution Party (PRI)(28 percent),but no party has a majority or even a plurality. ¶3. (U) Thus far Mexico City is calm in the face of an uneventful voting day with few irregularities initially reported. IFE's delay in announcing a winner will probably not result in unrest if an announcement is made as expected July 5. Anyone can watch the vote count on IFE's internet tallying site, a mechanism that will help preempt allegations of vote rigging. Still, with a race this close the odds are even better that electoral challenges will surely follow (and must be filed by July 9). Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity GARZA