BLAST FROM THE PAST: FORMER PRESIDENT ECHEVERRIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 003196 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2016 TAGS: PINR PGOV PREL MX SUBJECT: BLAST FROM THE PAST: FORMER PRESIDENT ECHEVERRIA OFFERS TOUR D'HORIZON REF: 05 MEXICO 6612 Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR WILLIAM H. DUNCAN, R EASONS: 1.4(B/D). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a July 5 breakfast with poloff, former Mexican President Luis Echeverria Alvarez (1970-76) offered his views on the state of U.S.-Mexican relations and the current election campaign. He expressed concern about the damage the migration issue was doing to U.S.-Mexican relations and about the possibility that a large number of undocumented Mexicans in the U.S. could be repatriated to their economically stagnant states of origin, provoking social unrest. He predicted considerable post-election turmoil within the third place Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI),opining that it would have to offer a new image to the Mexican public -- and possibly even change its name -- to remain competitive. Although the former president remains frail following a January 2006 stroke, he appears clear minded, well-informed, and interested -- if not engaged -- in politics. End comment. ¶2. (C) The breakfast, held at Echeverria's Mexico City residence, was organized by former PRI presidential candidate and one-time Echeverria aide Everardo Moreno Cruz (reftel). Echeverria, Moreno Cruz and POLOFF were the only participants. The 84-year old Echeverria suffered a stroke in January that temporarily left him with partial paralysis. He appears to have recovered from the stroke and is well-informed and clear-minded, although his speech is a bit labored, and he appears to need some help in walking. During the discussion, he did not raise the issue of the recent criminal proceedings seeking to hold him accountable for the killing of student protesters by security forces in 1968 (when he was Secretary of Government) or during the so-called "Corpus Christi Massacre" of 1971. Concerned About U.S.-Mexican Relations, Economics -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Echeverria professed great concern as to the damage that the issue of migration was doing to U.S.-Mexican relations. He said he feared that if comprehensive immigration reform failed to pass the U.S. Congress, the USG would seek to repatriate millions of undocumented Mexicans living in the U.S. to their Mexican states of origin, which could seriously destabilize Mexico. He urged the USG to provide economic assistance targeting those Mexican states responsible for the largest number of migrants. He also favored a bilateral migration accord. ¶4. (C) Turning to the issue of bilateral economic relations, he urged the USG and GOM to work together to address the shared threat posed by cheap Chinese imports. He argued that Mexico could not compete with China in all sectors and that the GOM therefore needed to pursue an "industrial policy" favoring specific industrial sectors that had the potential to be competitive. A Debilitated PRI Cries Out for Help -------------- ¶5. (C) Echeverria admitted that the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) was severely debilitated and that there undoubtedly would be a blood-letting within the party after the election. He conceded that the party needed to be reformed and modernized but believes it is strong enough to survive. He predicted that in seeking to rebrand itself, the party might even change its name. He saw Felipe Calderon and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador as representing the two extremes in Mexican politics, and said that despite his admitted weakness as a candidate, Madrazo's centrism and the PRI's nationwide electoral machine kept him in contention. Former Presidents Get No Respect -------------- ¶6. (C) In a side conversation after the breakfast, Moreno observed that once Mexican presidents leave office, they tend to withdraw from political life and lose virtually all of their political influence. He said that although Carlos Salinas had been an exception to this tendency, even his influence within the PRI recently had been dwindling, given his poor relations with Madrazo and perceived preference for Calderon. To further illustrate his point, Moreno said that former President Miguel de la Madrid (1982-88) recently had complained to him that Roberto Madrazo had made absolutely no effort to contact him during the campaign. He added that he had spoken to former President Ernesto Zedillo last week about the latter's current visit to Mexico for a conference on management. He said Zedillo planned to avoid any contact MEXICO 00003196 002 OF 002 with political figures during his visit, to avoid even a hint of involvement in the campaign. Comment: Once a Statist, Always a Statist -------------- ¶7. (C) Comment: Echeverria appeared especially interested in discussing events during his presidency, particularly his dealings with President Nixon over the admission into the UN of the People's Republic of China, and his state visit to Beijing and meeting with Mao. Notwithstanding his call for remaking the image of the PRI, it appears that the hard-line PRIista remains a dyed-in-the-wool statist, philosophically opposed to the free market policies of the last two PRI presidents. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity BASSETT