PAN LEGISLATORS OPINE ON CAMPAIGN/PARTY DYNAMICS

66879 2006-06-06 13:29:00 06MEXICO3081 Embassy Mexico CONFIDENTIAL VZCZCXRO9377 RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM DE RUEHME #3081/01 1571329 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 061329Z JUN 06 FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1428 INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL MX C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 003081 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL MX SUBJECT: PAN LEGISLATORS OPINE ON CAMPAIGN/PARTY DYNAMICS AND ROLE OF THE NEXT CONGRESS Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR LESLIE BASSETT, REASONS; 1. 4(B/D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. In separate meetings with TDY Poloff, both Senator Maria Luisa Calderon (sister of ruling National Action Party (PAN) presidential Candidate Felipe Calderon) and Federal Deputy German Martinez (party representative to the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE)),expressed their frustrations with the leadership of PAN president Manuel Espino and the influx of Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) refugees into the party. Calderon and Martinez also agreed that the PAN will not have a majority in Congress, but are confident they will increase their representation substantially, giving a potential Felipe Calderon administration a good shot at forming a working majority. Not surprisingly, US migration legislation and border security were hot topics for the PAN legislators. End SUMMARY. A Divided PRI Up For Grabs as the PAN Calculates Congressional Odds ¶2. (C) When asked about the role of Congress in the next sexenio both confided that PAN internal polls show that it will be almost impossible for the party to have a majority in the lower house. The PAN could increase its representation to about 225 seats. The Senator predicted that Calderon would be more successful at working with Congress because he is a much better politician than President Vicente Fox. She commented that President Fox never learned how to deal with Congress. Fox still acts like a CEO, she continued, overly pragmatic and wanting to win at all costs. Candidate Calderon, she said, would work with the opposition but without weakening the power or authority of the Executive. While Senator Calderon admitted the possibility of a special session of the sitting Congress, she said it would only take place after the elections and with the concurrence of the president-elect. If Calderon wins, he will seek to revisit �00A;the radio portion of the TV and Radio law and clean up minor lose-ends of the Fox administration. ¶3. (C) While Martinez did not speculate on a special session, he did predict the PRI will play a key role in the next Congress, but not as the united force of the past. The party will split when Roberto Madrazo loses, Martinez suggested, and the subsequent infighting will spill into Congress. The PRI Governors will control their federal legislators in the lower house, while PRI strongman Manlio Fabio Beltrones will control the Senate. PRI dinosaur Manuel Bartlett's decision to support Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is the latest sign of the fractures deepening within the PRI. Martinez is confidant that with the support of younger, progressive PRI Governors, such as Enrique Pena Nieto (Edomex),Eduardo Bours (Sonora) and Eugenio Hernandez (Tamaulipas),a PAN government will have enough votes in Congress to have a working majority. Martinez said that the PRI as we know it will cease to exist on July the third, a victim of defeat and the financial consequences of bad decision-making by candidate Madrazo. Madrazo's decision to ally with the Green Party, for example, will cost the PRI eight percent of federal subsidies (which are calculated on the basis of the vote each party attains). The central PRI structure was already short of money, and a poor showing in the July vote would further exacerbate its financial woes. Making Deals with the Devil ¶4. (C) On the issue of former and current PRI officials joining the PAN, the Senator firmly stated that the party's National Executive Committee and the campaign are two different organizations. According to Calderon and Martinez, PAN President Manuel Espino's performance has been awful for several reasons, including making deals with the devil (suggesting the PRI). Martinez added that Espino, who is close to first lady Marta Sahagun, tramples all over PAN principles in his zest to get votes, wherever possible. The Senator said that Espino, not Calderon, has given priority to non-PAN politicos who bring votes, not values, to the party. As a result the presidential campaign and the party are somewhat distant. According to Martinez, some PRIistas are more acceptable than others. For example, former PRI president Genaro Borrego (who resigned from the party 6/5) came from a primarily PANista family. Luis Tellez, a Zedillo cabinet member set to support Calderon, is a technocrat who is almost apolitical. On the other hand, Ruben Mendoza, former candidate for governor of Edomex, was a colossal disaster. Martinez squarely blames Espino for pushing forward Mendoza's nomination and costing the PAN a very public setback. On the subject of acceptable technocrats, the Senator confirmed that IMF deputy managing director MEXICO 00003081 002 OF 002 Agustin Carstens, a PRI member, has been touted as a potential Secretary of Finance under a Calderon administration. She said that her brother is pragmatic enough to choose the best man to run the economy even if the person is not a PANista. The Senator did add that Calderon would place trusted aides in Under Secretary positions to keep an eye on those non-PANista Secretaries. Sojo Factor and Other Campaign Issues ¶5. (C) Martinez told us that Fox advisor Eduardo Sojo has been a calming influence with the relatively young Calderon team. Sojo participates in war room meetings and serves as a link between the campaign and Los Pinos. Martinez added that Calderon likes Sojo and expects him to play a significant role in a possible Calderon administration. Martinez confirmed reports that the Calderon team is not working with teachers' union (SNTE) president Elba Esther Gordillo -- because she wanted too much in exchange for her union's support. (Note: It thus seems likely that her competing presidential candidate, Roberto Campa, will finish the race under the "New Alliance" banner. End Note). ¶6. (C) Martinez was not terribly disappointed with IFE's ruling against the PAN's "AMLO is a danger to Mexico" spots and said the campaign has already moved on. The strategy now is to focus on the debate, he said. If Calderon does well and it is reflected in post debate polls, the campaign will take a more passive approach and act presidential. On the other hand, if Lopez Obrador does better than expected, the Calderon campaign will go back to being aggressive. Martinez expects the debate to be tough for Calderon, and believes Lopez Obrador will quickly turn the event into a "good vs. evil" exercise. Martinez, like many in the PAN, dismissed the PRI, and suggested that PRI candidate Madrazo's recent overtures to the PRD reflect desperation. Martinez added that any PRI-PRD alliance hurts Lopez Obrador and helps Madrazo. It also helps the PAN because they can easily paint both opponents with the same brush, however, Martinez said the campaign is worried that a PRI-PRD alliance could spark unrest if Calderon only wins by a couple of points. Cabinet Selections and other Key Bilateral Issues ¶7. (C) Martinez stressed that candidate Calderon has a great deal of confidence in the military (SEDENA),and in current Secretary of Defense Vega. Calderon will keep with tradition SIPDIS and allow Gen. Vega to submit his top five choices for his replacement. Calderon will be very involved with all Secretariats, not just SEDENA, while he learns the issues. SIPDIS Only after Calderon feels comfortable with the agenda, Martinez predicted, will he delegate to his Cabinet members. Martinez said that besides migration, Calderon,s priority in his foreign policy with Washington will be to shift the public debate on border security. According to Martinez, Calderon wants Mexico to take more ownership of issue and be a more active partner with Washington. The goal of a Calderon administration would be to find commonalties between terrorism-security and narco-security. Economics will be another key priority. Comment ¶8. (C) Both Senator Calderon and Martinez indicated that tensions between the campaign and the PAN party structure remain strong even at this late date in the campaign, and after Calderon's brief but impressive rise in the polls. The campaign and the party have been effective partners in the effort to win as large a PAN faction in Congress as possible, and in putting out effective messages against the other presidential candidates. After the election, especially if Calderon wins, he may well try to shake up party leadership to better reflect his priorities. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity GARZA