NEW POLLS SUGGEST PAN CANDIDATE CALDERON MAY CROSS

62898 2006-05-04 23:27:00 06MEXICO2409 Embassy Mexico CONFIDENTIAL 06MEXICO1461 VZCZCXRO4667 RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM DE RUEHME #2409/01 1242327 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 042327Z MAY 06 FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0675 INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1173 RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 0933 TAGS: PGOV MX C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 002409 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2016 TAGS: PGOV MX SUBJECT: NEW POLLS SUGGEST PAN CANDIDATE CALDERON MAY CROSS THE FINISH LINE FIRST REF: MEXICO 1461 Classified By: PolCounselor Leslie A. Bassett for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary: A flurry of post-debate polls puts National Action Party (PAN) candidate Felipe Calderon ahead of former front-runner Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO)(Democratic Revolution Party - PRD) by between 1-7 percentage points, depending on the poll. PAN party President Manuel Espino told us 5/3 that he had cut deals with PRI governors that made him confident Calderon's victory was assured. Espino said that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the PAN had not cut any deals with teacher's union leader Elba Esther Gordillo, meaning that New Alliance (PANAL) candidate Roberto Campa would likely finish the campaign. Espino acknowledged differences between party leaders and the Calderon campaign team. He also stressed the PAN's interest in playing a greater role regionally to counter Chavez and Morales. End Summary ¶2. (SBU) A series of published polls taken after the April 25 presidential debate (reftel) for the first time put Calderon ahead of AMLO, who has been the frontrunner in polls for over 18 months. Milenio newspaper released its poll May 2 indicating Calderon held 36 percent of those polled, AMLO 33 percent, and PRI candidate Madrazo 28 percent. On May 3 Reforma newspaper released a poll that gave Calderon 40 percent, AMLO 33 percent, and Madrazo 22 percent. On May 4 Televisa released poll results that gave Calderon 35, AMLO 34 and Madrazo 27. Espino told us that internal PAN polls give Calderon a seven point lead over AMLO, and added that GEA-ISA would release a poll showing him five points ahead. Just a month ago the polls moved for the first time towards a "technical tie" between Calderon and AMLO, with AMLO slightly ahead. These most recent polls indicate a continued drop in support for AMLO as Calderon gains momentum. ¶3. (C) Espino and his colleagues (two of whom were wearing "Felipe Calderon" button-downs) attributed AMLO's fall to bad PRD campaign strategies, AMLO's controversial attacks on President Fox, and AMLO's decision not to participate in the first national debate. They were extremely pleased with the impact of PAN "spots" which linked AMLO to corruption in Mexico City politics during his time as mayor, and compared him to Venezuelan President Chavez. The PAN will keep the heat on AMLO, Espino said. He added -- surprisingly -- that he had spoken to PRI candidate Madrazo and the two had agreed to focus their respective energies on eroding support for AMLO. Espino explained that it was important to the PAN strategy to keep third place contender Madrazo a viable player in the race. If the Madrazo campaign collapses, the PRI votes will migrate not to the PAN but to the PRD. ¶4. (C) That said, the PAN was not slow to exploit the very evident divisions within the PRI. Espino confirmed that he had been in negotiations with former PRI Secretary General Elba Esther Gordillo (also head of the teachers' union). Gordillo is the driving force behind the PANAL campaign and candidate Roberto Campa, and the PAN had hoped to get Campa out of the race and attract his vote. However, Espino continued, Gordillo's price was too high (in terms of congressional and cabinet positions) and polling showed PANAL was drawing less than one percent of the vote. Post the April 25 debate, Espino said, the PAN decided it didn't need Gordillo. He added that the Calderon camp wasn't pleased with this outcome, but the party had the final say. Espino acknowledged that he had come to the same decision months ago while negotiating a possible alliance with the PVEM "Green" party -- the Greens were charging too much for the few percentage points of support it could deliver. The PRI ended up in alliance with the Greens, to the Calderon camp's dismay. Time has shown, Espino concluded, that he was right -- the Greens cost the PRI more trouble in terms of conflict over congressional seats than they will likely deliver on July 2. ¶5. (C) Espino further confided that the PAN has solid deals with rebellious PRI governors who are secretly but actively aiding the Calderon campaign while giving lip-service to supporting Madrazo. The PRI governors relish the autonomy and authority they have enjoyed under Fox and know that Madrazo will rein them in if elected, Espino explained. While Espino would not confirm any specifics, it is common knowledge that Sonora Governor Bours has met with the Calderon team. Espino implied that Nuevo Leon Governor Natividad Gonzalez Paras might be another one by telling us that the governors formerly supporting rival PRI candidate Montiel were now working behind the scenes for Calderon. ¶6. (C) Espino concluded by saying the PAN was confident MEXICO 00002409 002 OF 002 Calderon would win, and hoped to take a plurality in Congress. The divisions within the PRI made the PAN hopeful that eventually renegade PRI congressmembers might cross the aisle to vote with the PAN, giving them an effective majority. The PAN, he stressed, would remain a good partner with the U.S. It would also look to the region to see what more could be done to counter Chavez, Bolivian President Morales, and other leftist leaders now coming to power in Latin America. ¶7. (C) Comment: The PAN is clearly buoyed by Calderon's good performance in the debates and the recent shift in the polls. Calderon's move to first place makes it more likely both the PRD and the PRI will intensify their complaints that President Fox is using undue influence to support Calderon. The challenge for the PAN is to consolidate Calderon's current bubble of popularity into solid support in the 60 days remaining before the elections. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity KELLY