CALDERON SCORES BIG IN FIRST PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MEXICO 002240

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX
SUBJECT: CALDERON SCORES BIG IN FIRST PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE


1. (SBU) Summary: As measured both by the polls and the
pundits, National Action Party (PAN) presidential candidate
Felipe Calderon emerged the big winner in yesterday's
presidential debate, offering a national audience a polished,
well-organized and engaging summary of his platform. His
principal opponent in the debate, Institutional Revolutionary
Party (PRI) candidate Roberto Madrazo, while aiming for the
political center, appeared to alienate many voters with his
aggressive attacks and his uneasy manner. Patricia Mercado
of the Alternative Social Democratic and Peasant Alliance
(Alternativa) proved the surprise of the evening, offering a
polished, composed and engaging performance that will surely
strengthen her party's chances of reaching the 2% threshold
necessary to be officially registered as a party. The other
minor party candidate, Roberto Campa of the Nueva Alianza,
assumed the role of the spoiler, relentlessly attacking
Madrazo's integrity, decency, and even his attitude towards
women. The four candidates referred infrequently to Andres
Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO),the candidate of the leftist
Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD),who in a
controversial decision opted not to participate and whose
absence was symbolized by an empty lectern. While
post-debate polls suggest that AMLO's refusal to participate
could cost him some support, it remains to be seen whether
this damage proves long-term. Although with two over months
left in the campaign, we do not expect last night's debate to
be decisive, it likely provided Calderon with renewed
momentum, at the expense of Madrazo and AMLO. End summary.

Polls and Pundits Give Victory to Calderon
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2. (U) Post-debate polls published in the April 26 edition
of Reforma showed that 43% of viewers considered Calderon the
winner of the debate, as opposed to 18% for Madrazo, 14% for
Mercado, and 7% for Campa. A panel of approximately 300
pundits and opinion makers in Mexico City, Monterrey, and
Guadalajara favored Calderon even more strongly than the
viewing audience: 71% considered Calderon the winner, as
opposed to 11% for Madrazo, 9% for Mercado, and 6% for Campa.
The same group asserted that they viewed Calderon and
Mercado more favorably as a result of the debate, while
viewing Madrazo and AMLO less favorably.

Calderon: "Candidate of Ideas, President of Solutions"
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3. (SBU) Most analysts concur that Calderon won the debate
both on substance and on style. He appeared confident,
relaxed and in good humor, and spoke more slowly and evenly
than in some early campaign appearances. Characterizing
himself as a "candidate of ideas," he tended to offer more
detailed policy prescriptions than the other candidates,
enumerating his points in a logical, easy-to-follow manner.
With respect to fiscal policy, he said he favored (i)
reducing income tax rates and possibly adopting a flat tax,
(ii) simplifying tax filing procedures, (iii) increasing the
transparency surrounding the use of government funds, (iv)
targeting government funds to social programs with a real
impact on quality of life, such as health insurance for
children, and (v) increasing economic stability, in part by
protecting property rights. Calderon described his labor
policy with one word: "jobs." He said he would seek to
create jobs by increasing Mexico's competitiveness, including
by lowering energy costs and interest rates. He promised to
provide financial incentives for companies to hire young
workers, to create day care centers for working mothers, and
to provide financing for small and medium size enterprises
(SME). Calderon said he supported allowing strategic
alliances with private capital in the energy sector,
particularly power generation and deep-water oil exploration,
and advocated competition in the energy sector as a means of
lowering energy costs.

Madrazo Stakes Out the Political Center
--------------


4. (SBU) Throughout the encounter, Madrazo laid claim to the
political center, characterizing the right as "intolerant"
and the left as "conflictive." He framed his case by arguing
that during the past five and one-half years of PAN
government, conditions in Mexico had "reversed," with
economic indicators dropping and indicators of insecurity
rising. With respect to fiscal policy, he proposed adopting
a simplified tax system, eliminating tax loopholes, and
improving tax collection. He promised to create nine million
jobs during his term, in part by providing stimuli to SME,
and creating incentives for businesses to hire young workers.
Alluding to the Fox Administration's failed attempt to expel
striking workers from a steel plant in Michoacan last week,
he said that unlike a PAN administration, his would respect

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the autonomy of unions. Turning to energy issues, Madrazo
promised not to privatize Pemex. He called for Mexico's
energy resources to be managed according to the principle of
"modern nationalism," although he did not specify whether
this would permit private investment. He strongly criticized
Calderon's performance as Fox's Energy Secretary.


5. (SBU) With the possible exception of Roberto Campa,
Madrazo was by far the most aggressive of the candidates in
attacking his opponents. He tended to refer to them by their
last names, while they tended to refer to each other by first
names. In a pointed double entendre alluding to Calderon's
height, Madrazo charged that Calderon "lacked the stature" to
be President. While his delivery was smooth, he rarely
smiled and a number of commentators said he seemed ill at
ease and lacked Calderon's warmth and engaging manner. A PRI
insider conceded to Poloff that Madrazo's "nerves had gotten
to him" and that he ended up reading many of his remarks from
prepared statements. He said that despite the PRI's public
claims of victory in the debate, Madrazo's inner circle was
"very worried," and predicted that as Madrazo's campaign
continued to lag, we would see further defections.

Mercado Emerges with Stature Enhanced
--------------


6. (SBU) Alternativa candidate Patricia Mercado used the
rare opportunity to appear before a national audience to her
best advantage. Mercado managed to stay above the fray
throughout the evening, escaping criticism from her opponents
and offering her policy prescriptions in a polished,
measured, and self-assured manner. She emphasized that she
considered herself a leftist in the mold of Spain's Felipe
Gonzalez and Chile's Michelle Bachelet. She repeatedly
emphasized her concern for the rights of women, the
handicapped and other marginalized groups. Surprisingly in
this conservative and religious country, she argued for
legalizing gay marriage, asserting that the issue was not one
of morality, but rather one of rights. Most pundits agreed
that she emerged from the event with her stature enhanced;
one pundit described her performance as "serene," and others
observed that she provided a fresh presence in Mexican
politics.

Campa Excels as a Spoiler, Not as a Candidate
--------------


7. (SBU) Through much of the debate, Nueva Alianza
candidate Roberto Campa focused on attacking Madrazo, calling
into question his personal integrity and charging that he was
hostile to women. In perhaps the most charged moment of the
debate, Campa announced that he recently had received in the
mail an anonymous package containing documents proving that
Madrazo had not paid income taxes in 2003-05. He observed
tartly that Madrazo must have had income, as he had been
widely reported to have purchased luxury homes in Mexico City
and Miami during that period. Madrazo did not respond
directly to Campa's allegations, preferring to dismiss him as
a "puppet," an allusion to teachers' union leader Elba Esther
Gordillo's perceived influence over the Campa campaign.
Although Campa achieved his goal of scoring points against
Madrazo, he was less effective in promoting his own
candidacy; at times, he gesticulated wildly and spoke in near
shouts.

AMLO Loses in Absentia
--------------


8. (SBU) Although AMLO opted not to participate in last
night's debate, he inevitably remained part of the dynamic,
with an empty lectern on the stage symbolizing his refusal to
participate. Although his rivals referred to him only
infrequently during the debate -- one political analyst had
speculated to Poloff that a Mexican audience would react
poorly to those who criticized him in absentia -- the
audience could not fail to take note of his absence. Indeed,
according to Reforma, 55% of viewers thought AMLO would lose
votes because of his refusal to participate. Nevertheless,
AMLO has said he will participate in the second and final
debate, scheduled for June 6, which could provide an
opportunity to undo any damage incurred last night.

Comment: No Knock Outs, But A Clear Calderon Victory
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9. (SBU) In our view, and that of most pundits, Calderon
emerged the clear winner in the debate, even if his rivals
did not commit any fatal errors. His victory comes just when
his campaign was beginning to show renewed signs of life,
with recent polls showing him having narrowed, or even
closed, the gap with AMLO. His victory in the debate -- and

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in the post-debate spin -- should give his campaign a fresh
boost of momentum, and such boosts do not come often in what
has been an uneventful campaign to date. Moreover, Madrazo's
loss could cement his status as an improbable third place
contender, and encourage swing voters who strongly oppose
AMLO to throw their allegiance to Calderon as the more likely
alternative. Of course, the wild card in this analysis is
AMLO himself. While we would not be surprised to see him
slip into second place in post-debate polls, he has promised
to participate in the June 6 debate and by then, his failure
to appear last night may well be forgotten.


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