ACT II: AMLO KICKS OFF CAMPAIGN'S SECOND STAGE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 001311 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR MX SUBJECT: ACT II: AMLO KICKS OFF CAMPAIGN'S SECOND STAGE REF: A. MEXICO 536 ¶B. MEXICO 765 Summary ¶1. (U) Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO),presidential candidate for the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD),held a campaign event on 02/26 that filled Mexico City's central plaza (Zocalo) with approximately 70,000 to 120,000 supporters. The event marked the end of a successful first stage of the campaign as polls show AMLO's lead increase to almost 10 points since the campaigns officially began in January. The Zocalo event was also the launch of the campaign's second stage (reftel) which will be adjusted slightly to expand AMLO's image not only as a leader but as a team player as well. The focus of the second stage's initial two weeks will be to support PRD candidates in the March 12 State of Mexico local elections. From there, AMLO will attempt to visit over 400 municipalities around the country before June. At an average of five campaign events a day, there is concern that AMLO will burn out before the elections. PRD insiders, however, believe he will only continue to get stronger. End Summary. Welcome Back, AMLO ¶2. (U) The Zocalo rally was billed as the largest event of the campaign, and AMLO did not disappoint, raising the enthusiasm of approximately 70,000 to 120,000 supporters, many of who were bused in from all over the city and surrounding areas. His speech focused on a number of his most important domestic policies and a summary of the campaign's first stage, but also touched on some of AMLO's foreign policy initiatives. His promises to the crowd included lowering electric, gas, and gasoline prices, ending taxes on food and medicine, and making the energy sector the engine for economic development without opening it to private investment. He also added that if elected president he would not raise taxes and would slash cabinet secretary salaries as well as presidential pensions. He listed his 26 specific promises to Mexico City, a strategy he has used throughout the campaign of creating specific commitments to meet the needs of each individual state in addition to his 50 Promises for the Nation. AMLO used the event to highlight some of his foreign policy beliefs as well, not surprisingly inspired by the Sheraton-Cuban delegation affair (reftel). AMLO stated that he would return Mexico to its traditional foreign policy of non-intervention and that Mexico was "not going to meddle in the internal life of other peoples and other governments, because we don't want them meddling in ours." He explained that Mexico was not going to be the puppet of any foreign government, although he did not mention the United States directly. He also added that he would give Mexico's 45 consulates in the U.S. more responsibilities to defend the rights of migrant workers living in the U.S. AMLO did state, however, that his government was open to international cooperation and that he would have friendly, cooperative relationships with " all the societies and governments of the world." ¶3. (SBU) Hoping to take advantage of February polls that show him ahead of National Action Party (PAN) candidate Felipe Calderon by almost 10 points, AMLO told the crowd that he would soon start the next phase of his campaign, visiting municipalities and rural regions of the country to get even closer to the public, finishing once again in Mexico City's Zocalo. Jesus Ortega, AMLO's campaign coordinator, told us during a previous meeting that the objective of this second stage was to show AMLO as a team player, supporting other PRD candidates around the country and hopefully help them win their respective races (reftel). The first two weeks of the second stage will focus on municipalities in the State of Mexico in an attempt to help PRD candidates campaigning in 41 of the states 125 municipalities. Winning the majority of those municipalities during March 12 elections would be a huge victory for the campaign. The PRD currently controls 21 of the state's municipalities and has only 19 representatives in the local congress. The PRD, which was disappointed in last July's gubernatorial elections, hopes that recent scandals involving former PRI governor Montiel will erode the PRI's hold on one of the key 2006 states. According to one source close to the campaign, it appears that PRD candidates will win in a number of the municipalities and hopefully place a strong second in the others. Running on Empty? ¶4. (SBU) After the March 12 State of Mexico elections, AMLO will attempt to visit over 400 municipalities around the country, helping local PRD candidates and reaching out to poorer, rural voters. Some analysts and observers claim that at an average of 5 campaign events a day, AMLO will run out MEXICO 00001311 002 OF 002 of energy before the July 2 elections take place. Those close to AMLO, however, state otherwise - telling us that AMLO will get stronger as the campaign continues. A number of Citizens Network coordinators we met with said that AMLO gets his energy from the crowd and feeds off of their excitement. Rafael Marin, coordinator for the three states encompassing the Yucatan peninsula and long-time AMLO friend, told us that when he was campaigning with AMLO in 1994 for the Tabasco governorship he would wake up before the sun rose and went to bed well past midnight - never once looking tired or skipping an event. Comment ¶5. (U) There is a good chance AMLO will concentrate in this second phase of the campaign on areas where support is lower but where voters will have a higher impact on the election results. According to a report in Reforma, six states represent 45.7% of possible voters - Mexico City, State of Mexico, Veracruz, Jalisco, Guanajuato, and Puebla. AMLO is strongest in Mexico City and Veracruz, while the PRI controls State of Mexico, Jalisco and Puebla and the PAN holds Guanajuato. Helping AMLO's cause in PRI territory are a number of recent desertions and scandals that have rocked his opponent's campaign. At least one pollster has told us that disenchanted PRIistas are more likely to shift toward the PRD (a spin-off of the PRI) than the PAN. According to Citizens Network coordinators we have met with, there are only a handful of states where AMLO holds third place, mostly in the north of the country. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity GARZA