LESOTHO POWER SHIFT: 18 MPS QUIT GOVERNING PARTY

UNCLAS MASERU 000514 SIPDIS SENSITIVE, SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC LT SUBJECT: LESOTHO POWER SHIFT: 18 MPS QUIT GOVERNING PARTY REF: MASERU 507 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On October 13, stepping up a rapidly unfolding political drama in Lesotho, eighteen members of the governing Lesotho Congress for Democracy (LCD) abandoned their party, symbolically crossing the aisle at Parliament to join new splinter party, the All Basotho Convention (ABC). As partisan crowds outside Parliament chanted political slogans, unsubstantiated rumors swirled that more defections from the LCD could follow in the coming days--potentially leading to a vote of no-confidence against the Government. As of COB October 13, Maseru remains calm and commercial activity normal. Many government and party leaders, including PM Mosisili, returned to their home constituencies for the weekend of October 13-15, seeking support and/or consultations. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) Eighteen Members of Parliament formally defected from the governing Lesotho Congress for Democracy (LCD) on October 13 to join the newly formed political party "All Basotho Convention (ABC)," led by Thomas Thabane, former Minister of Communication. Thabane, who quit the LCD and formed his new party on October 9, succeeded in wooing several more MPs than he and local observers had anticipated (reftel). With the dramatic floor-crossing at Parliament, the LCD's previous two-thirds majority has been cut significantly, from 79 out of 120 National Assembly seats to a slender one-seat majority of 61 seats. ¶3. (SBU) Following the brief, but boisterous, session of Parliament, leaders of the LCD and various opposition parties departed Maseru for their home districts either to seek support from constituents or to consult with local leaders on next moves. Prime Minister Mosisili (leader of the LCD),joined by Foreign Minister Moleleki and other GOL officials, traveled to his home district of Quacha's Nek in remote southeast Lesotho. A senior MFA official (PROTECT) told Charge that the dramatic political development "had seized the attention of all Basotho." ¶4. (SBU) Unsubstantiated rumors circulated among members of the new ABC party that several more MPs from the LCD, including the Assistant Minister of Justice, could defect over the next few days. Local observers speculate that some MPs did not join the new party on October 13 as they wish to first consult with constituents. ¶5. (SBU) Amidst a significant police presence around Parliament buildings on October 13, hundreds of supporters of the LCD and the ABC, separated by security officials, sang and chanted party slogans. ABC supporters appeared to slightly outnumber those defending the governing party. There were no reports of violence. Maseru was calm at COB October 13 and local commercial activity was normal. ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: If ABC parliamentarians are correct in their optimistic prognosis that two or more additional LCD MPS intend to defect over the next week, this opens the possibility of a subsequent no-confidence motion in Parliament against the current LCD Government. Lesotho's opposition parties, however, are highly fragmented and would face great difficulty forging a coalition government. Thabane's new ABC party will have to contend with the country's current top opposition party, the BNP, led by former putchist (ret.) General Lekhanya. Neither Thabane nor Lekhanya is inclined to play second fiddle within a hypothetical coalition government. END COMMENT. MURPHY