DISCONTENT WITHIN THE RULING PARTY AND THE MAIN OPPOSITION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MASERU 000035 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPARTMENT FOR AF/S E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR LT SUBJECT: DISCONTENT WITHIN THE RULING PARTY AND THE MAIN OPPOSITION PARTY MASERU 00000035 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In the aftermath of the first post - independence Lesotho local government elections, which were held in April 2005, rumors emerged about internal disputes and power struggles within the two biggest political parties - the ruling Lesotho Congress for Democracy (LCD) and the main opposition, the Basotho National Party (BNP). As the rumors intensified, undertones challenging the leadership in both parties began to surface and it was feared that this would lead to general discontent as they prepare for the 2007 general elections. Some factions within the LCD feel that Prime Minister Mosisili should emulate other regional leaders by leaving public office after two terms even though the constitution allows him to seek more than two terms. The BNP's internal problems have spilled over to include the Speaker of Parliament who is accused of destabilizing the BNP by interfering in its internal affairs. Internal political decisions may begin to stall progress in areas ranging from parliamentary reform to needed action on international matters. End Summary. -------------- -------------- -------------- Discontent with the Leadership in the Ruling Party -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Tension within the LCD was fueled by rumors that the PM intended to resign prior to the 2007 general elections. This created friction between the PM, the ministers tipped to succeed him and their supporters. The Deputy Prime Minister, who has been referred to as PM Mosisili's man, has no strong political backing. This has paved the way for ministers who wish to succeed Mosisili to gradually show their interest. ¶3. (SBU) Sources within the ruling party indicate that there are some factions within the LCD who openly want a leadership change ahead of the 2007 elections. They contend PM Mosisili should leave public office after two terms even though the constitution allows him to seek more terms. They are under the conviction that a leader who stays in power for too long becomes susceptible to authoritarian tendencies and ends up eliminating potential future leaders. Die-hard elements within the LCD feel that Mosisili was just a compromise candidate when he was elevated to the position of Deputy Prime Minister prior to the 1998 general elections. The then ailing Prime Minister Ntsu Mokhehle, was faced with a dilemma of choosing a successor. Mokhehle had to choose between his brother, Shakhane Mokhehle, then a Minister of Trade and Industry, and current Foreign Minister Monyane Moleleki (who was then Minister of Natural Resources) but he was deemed too young at the time. Mosisili emerged as the best candidate because of his perceived level-headedness compared to the supposed radical elements within the LCD. ¶4. (SBU) The two front-runners now are said to be Foreign Minister Moleleki and Minister of Communications Tom Thabane (former Minister of Security). Press reports suggest Moleleki is the favorite; he is a member of the LCD National Executive Committee (NEC) and the editor-in-chief of the party newspaper. Thabane is not a member of the NEC but has a strong following in his constituency as well as in other areas. (Note: Thabane has served in a number of ministerial positions over his long political career.) ¶5. (SBU) As the "leadership battle" continued to brew, indirect personal attacks on the credibility of the two prospective candidates have been topics of discussion in party caucuses. Also, accusations and counter-accusations between the two ministers and their supporters both in and outside government corridors intensified and spread to the constituencies. In a surprise move in December 2005, Mosisili wrote a letter to the LCD NEC, Women's League, Constituency Committees as well as LCD Members of Parliament (MPs). He indicated that he would not resign and would govern until his opponents in the party "get used to it." ¶6. (SBU) At a recent party conference held later the same month, Mosisili reiterated his declaration. According to the "Public Eye" newspaper dated December 16, 2005, the Prime Minister appealed to Moleleki and Thabane not to contest a non-existent leadership position in the party. He labeled their crusade as unfounded and targeted at dividing the party. It was also reported that when the PM arrived at the conference, some LCD members rushed into the conference hall while others were sluggish, showing disrespect. When the Prime Minister shouted out the party slogan, some LCD members chanted negative responses. -------------- -------------- -------------- MASERU 00000035 002.2 OF 003 And the Same in the Largest Opposition Party -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The leadership of the BNP, which is the largest opposition party, has not been immune to problems either. After party leader Major General Metsing Lekhanya was re-elected in March 2005, it did not take long before his disgruntled opponents, both in and outside parliament, began to openly encourage him to resign. The discontent began to rise but the party leadership, in an attempt to prevent divisions took disciplinary action on some members while others chose to resign from party organs. ¶8. (SBU) The situation was exacerbated when the Speaker of the National Assembly, Mrs. Nthloi Motsamai (a member of the ruling LCD),selected a disgruntled member of the BNP in parliament to attend a meeting on the harmonization of SADC electoral laws in Botswana in September 2005 without consulting the BNP leadership. ¶9. (SBU) Outraged by this nomination, Lekhanya wrote a letter to the Speaker in September 2005, requesting her to reconsider the nomination and hold proper consultations. Lekhanya stressed that such a unilateral act set a dangerous precedent that damages the independence and integrity of political parties. (Note: In the mixed member parliament of Lesotho, the proportional representative members are nominated and enter parliament by parties and can be removed by parties. Whereas the "first - past - the - post" members can enter parliament under a party ticket or as independent candidates and cannot be removed from parliament until their term is over. The BNP only has proportional representative members. End note.) The BNP leader also reminded the Speaker that she had unilaterally appointed an MP from the Lesotho People's Congress as Chairman of the Public Accounts Committee whereas the chairmanship is traditionally allocated to the leader of the biggest opposition party in government. Lekhanya went further to remind the Speaker about a highly debatable issue that he (Lekhanya) was still not recognized as the official opposition leader and not accorded the privileges of that position. (Note: The official leader of the opposition is entitled to an official vehicle and chauffeur, official residence, and salary and other privileges equivalent to those of a cabinet minister. However, the Speaker's stand has been that the BNP leader does not command the required numbers for such recognition. According to the Speaker, the official opposition leader's party must have at least twenty-five per-cent (25%) of the seats in parliament in order to be accorded such privileges. The BNP occupies 17 percent of the seats. End note) ¶10. (SBU) The BNP Youth League and Women's League also wrote a letter in October 2005, protesting the Speaker's action. In addition, the BNP Youth League accused the Speaker of disrespecting their leadership's decision of appointing the BNP Youth Leader to replace a deceased BNP MP in the Parliamentary Reforms Committee. The Speaker had instead appointed a different BNP member, again against the wishes of the BNP leadership. The letter concluded by informing the Speaker that all BNP MPs were summoned for debriefing at their headquarters the same day. The letter also stipulated that those who would attend would be deemed as deserters and as such, their seats in parliament would be forfeited. ¶11. (SBU) In response, the Speaker made a statement in Parliament, outlining the events that led to the nomination of the BNP member for the Botswana conference, and her thorny relations with the BNP leadership in general. She indicated that as a co-chairman of the former Interim Political Authority (IPA),the BNP MP had the requisite experience to represent the parliament in Botswana. (Note: The IPA is a multi-party body which was established following the 1998 political disturbances, and was instrumental in bringing about the present mixed member electoral model.) ¶12. (SBU) Essentially asking for protection from the House, the Speaker outlined a barrage of "intimidating" letters that she had received from various structures of the BNP. Subsequently, a motion was passed to refer the matter to the Parliamentary Privileges Committee. The committee has not reached a decision. ¶13. (SBU) The latest BNP communication to the Speaker is a letter dated December 22, from the Chairman of the Maseru regional constituencies and co-signed by ten constituency representatives. The letter accuses the Speaker of gross interference with BNP internal affairs, and calls for her resignation. A copy of the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association guidelines accompanies the letter on parliamentary MASERU 00000035 003.2 OF 003 procedure as it affects the role of political parties, party discipline, and parties and legislative leadership, which they claim, were violated by the Speaker. 14 (SBU) COMMENT: The internal power struggles and accusations clearly show the gravity of problems involving the top leadership of both parties. Some believe the Speaker of Parliament has tarnished her image as the custodian of parliamentary procedures and over-stepped her powers by interfering in matters which should have been left to political parties to deal with. The ruling LCD is due to hold a leadership conference on January 28, 2006, which will choose the leadership for the 2007 general elections. Likewise, the BNP will also hold a similar conference in December 2006. It is difficult to predict the outcome of the conferences, but Mosisili is likely to stay-on as LCD leader and seek a third term until he can handpick a successor. General Lekhanya has alienated potential successors by surrounding himself with " yes men " who have no potential for leadership. He is also likely to stay until a new contender emerges and defeats him or he handpicks a successor and resigns by choice. ¶15. (SBU) Divisiveness within the ruling LCD and the BNP could render decision-making on major internal multi-lateral and bilateral issues lengthy or leave them unresolved. In a "consensus" Cabinet and divided Parliament, objective consideration of matters from parliamentary reform to trade to security could become immeshed in internal political power moves. Stalemates within the LCD as well as the opposition may also lead to delays in action on pending legislation such as the Marriage Equity Act, land reform and other measures. At the same time, we understand from senior Cabinet officials that key bills (e.g., anti-money laundering) are high on their agendas and they hope to be able to obtain passage between February and April. However, the calendar has not yet been published. End Comment. PERRY