MOZAMBIQUE: JUNE ECONOMIC DIGEST

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MAPUTO 000847 SIPDIS SIPDIS AF/S FOR HTREGER AND JMALONEY JOHANNESBURG FSC FOR RDONOVAN JOHANNESBURG TDA FOR DSHUSTER USDOC FOR RTELCHIN MCC FOR SGAULL USAID FOR AA/AFR AND AFR/SA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EAID EINV ETRD MZ SUBJECT: MOZAMBIQUE: JUNE ECONOMIC DIGEST MAPUTO 00000847 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. This is a brief summary of significant economic developments in Mozambique during June 2006. We provide it as a supplement to our other reporting. The items discussed are: -- IMF Completes Fourth Review Under PGRF Arrangement -- GRM Launches Second Five-Year Poverty Reduction Plan -- World Bank to Loan USD 20 Million to Mozambican Farmers -- Mozambican Beer Launched in London -- Fuel Prices Rise Again -- Germany to Provide USD 25 Million in Budget Support -- Road Sector to Receive USD 230 million in 2007 -- New Currency Issued without Problems IMF Completes Fourth Review Under PGRF Arrangement -------------- -------------- ¶2. On June 20 the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the fourth review of Mozambique's economic performance under its existing Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PGRF) plan. Completion of this review allowed for the release of an additional USD 2.4 million to the Mozambican government (GRM). (Note: This loan is part of approximately USD 16.7 million the IMF is providing Mozambique under the PGRF. End note.) ¶3. Mr. Takatoshi Kato, Deputy Management Director and Acting Chair of the Executive Board, characterized Mozambique's performance in 2005 as "strong, despite exogenous shocks". Fiscal results were commendable and all performance criteria through end-March 2006 were met, according to Kato. While the macroeconomic outlook remains favorable, vigilance will be required in light of volatile oil prices and unpredictable weather. ¶4. According to the IMF, the main challenges over the medium term are sustaining broad-based economic growth and making further inroads in alleviating poverty through implementation of 2006-2009 poverty reduction strategy. Mozambique launched its second poverty reduction strategy this month (see para 5 below). GRM Launches Second Five-Year Poverty Reduction Plan -------------- -------------- ¶5. On June 23 the Mozambican government formally launched its second five-year "Plan of Action for the Reduction of 
Absolute Poverty" (PARPA II) in a ceremony chaired by the Minister of Planning and Development, Aiuba Cuereneia. The plan document had been approved in May by the Cabinet of Ministers, after a long drafting process that included consultation with civil society and the donor community. ¶6. PARPA II aims to reduce, by 2009, the percentage of the population living below the poverty line from 54 percent, the figure derived from the 2003 National Household Survey, to 45 percent. The new plan maintains many of the same priorities of PARPA I, including more training in the education and health sectors, strengthening good governance, developing basic infrastructure, and improving macro- economic and financial management. ¶7. Where PARPA II differs from its previous iteration is that it focuses on development at district level, something Guebuza has emphasized, as well as on creating a favorable environment for growth of the productive sector, particularly with respect to small and medium companies. PARPA II also attaches significant importance to investment in infrastructure. (Note: In this regard Prime Minister Luisa Diogo has characterized 2006-2007 as the "year of civil construction" in Mozambique. Projects planned include improvements to the national highway system and construction of the Zambeze and Rovuma bridges. End Note.) MAPUTO 00000847 002.2 OF 003 ¶8. Cuereneia stressed that the success of PARPA II will depend on close coordination between the government, civil society, and Mozambique's foreign donors and funding agencies. He also emphasized the importance of timely and rational allocation of government resources. The Minister stated that Mozambique's 128 districts will form the basis for all planning and development activities outlined in the PARPA II. ¶9. Some observers have criticized the plan for being too lax in its goals and objectives. During a June 27 talk in Maputo, UN-affiliated economist Jeffrey Sachs stated that PARPA II, although it contained the right elements, was not ambitious enough. (Comment: Sachs repeated this view numerous times during his visit, going as far as to cite specific paragraphs of the PARPA to illustrate how "ambition" was lacking in the document. End Comment.) World Bank to Loan USD 20 Million to Mozambican Farmers -------------- -------------- ¶10. The World Bank announced in June that it would make USD 20 million available to smallholder farmers in the Zambezi valley via a credit facility to be disbursed through the International Development Association. ¶11. According to the World Bank, which deems this a market- led smallholder development project, long term environmentally sustainable agricultural development by smallholder farmers is essential for continued macroeconomic growth. To support such growth, the Bank intends to provide direct support to smallholder groups and other supply chain participants, as well as strengthening local level capacity within the context of the GRM's decentralization policy. ¶12. This project has four components. The first component, Community Group Organization and Local Institutional Strengthening, focuses on empowering and building the social capital of farmer groups, women's groups and other supply chain participants. The second component, Agricultural Production and Marketing Development, is intended to provide technical support for market driven, broad-based sustainable agricultural development via technical assistance to stakeholders involved in production, marketing and processing of agricultural products. The third component, Community Agricultural and Environment Investment, will provide financial resources and technical assistance to support agricultural related public and private investments. The last component focuses on continued capacity at the governmental level; the Management, Coordination and Monitoring and Evaluation component will work with the Directorate of Rural Development within the Ministry of Planning and Development to ensure effective management of the project. ¶13. The World Bank provides this money as a soft loan, payable over 40 years, which includes a ten-year grace period. This pilot project is part of the World Bank's overall strategy to support development in the Zambezi valley, where the World Bank is already supporting bridge, road and rail projects. If successful, the World Bank may extend the project to other areas of Mozambique. Mozambican Beer Launched in London -------------- ¶14. On June 23 the Mozambican High Commissioner in London, Antonio Gumende, hosted an event launching a Mozambican beer, Laurentina, in Great Britain. The launch was part of the High Commission's larger effort to promote tourism in Mozambique. Both types of Laurentina, Clara (clear) and Preta (dark),will be available for purchase at select wholesalers. Laurentina is produced in Maputo at the MacMahon (2M) brewery, owned by Cervejas de Mocambique, the local subsidiary of South African Breweries (SAB). Fuel Prices Rise Again -------------- ¶15. The Mozambican Ministry of Energy increased fuel prices again in June. The price of fuel oil rose by 54.9 percent; petrol increased by 10.9 percent; diesel fuel by 16.2 percent. The rise in jet fuel was slightly lower at eight MAPUTO 00000847 003.2 OF 003 percent. Cooking gas also increased by 11.9 percent. The Ministry of Energy blamed the increases on rising import prices for all petroleum products and the depreciation of the metical against the US dollar since the last price rise. (Note. The metical depreciated by 9.63 percent in that time period. End note) Mozambique must import 100 percent of its fuel needs and is therefore very vulnerable to fluctuations in price and currency value. Germany to Provide USD 25 million in Budget Support -------------- -------------- ¶16. Over the next two years, the German government, via its cooperation institute KFW, will grant approximately USD 25.4 million to the Mozambican budget. This will be the first budget support Germany has provided. This direct budget support is intended to help Mozambique implement its Plan for the Relief of Absolute Poverty (PARPA II),but is not specifically earmarked for any project or program. Mozambique will receive half of the money in 2006 and half in 2007. The Governor of the Bank of Mozambique, who signed the agreement along with KFW's representative in Maputo, stated that this direct budget support is a sign of trust on the part of Mozambique's partners, the fruit of Mozambique's economic stability, control of inflation and of the exchange rate. Road Sector to Receive over USD 200 million in 2007 -------------- -------------- ¶17. Mozambique's road sector is set to receive USD 150 million in donor funding in 2007. The GRM will contribute an additional USD 80 million. The multi-donor and multi- year (2007-2011) program eventually will put an estimated USD 1.14 billion towards construction, improvement and maintenance of Mozambique's road infrastructure. Transition to New Meticais Relatively Problem Free -------------- -------------- ¶18. At 12:01 a.m., July 1, Mozambique began circulating its new currency, the Nova Familia de Metical. While some minor inconveniences arose, such as ATMs being inaccessible while waiting to be calibrated, there was no major disruption. Some Mozambicans have complained that they have not yet seen the new notes and some ATMs are still issuing the old notes, but these issues are expected to resolve themselves easily over the next months. Both the new and the old currencies will circulate until December 31. DUDLEY