March Economic Digest: Mozambique

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MAPUTO 000460 SIPDIS SIPDIS AF/S FOR HTREGER AND JMALONEY JOHANNESBURG FSC FOR RDONOVAN JOHANNESBURG TDA FOR DSHUSTER USDOC FOR RTELCHIN MCC FOR SGAULL USAID FOR AA/AFR AND AFR/SA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EAID EINV ETRD MZ SUBJECT: March Economic Digest: Mozambique MAPUTO 00000460 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. This is a brief summary of significant economic developments in Mozambique during March 2006. We provide it as a supplement to our other reporting. The items discussed are: -- Moma Titanium Reserves 40% Higher Than Expected -- IFC Purchases 5 Percent of Gas Project -- IMF Gives Positive Review of GRM's Tax Policy -- GRM Narrowly Missed 2005 Revenue Collection Target -- USAID/GRM Announce Tourism Development Project - "Development of Tourism in the Northern Arch" -- Port Concessionaire and Railway Parastatal in Dispute -- Debtor Companies Given Additional Time to Pay Overdue Social Security Contributions -- Fifty Percent of Exports go to South Africa Moma Titanium Reserves 40% Higher Than Expected -------------- --- ¶2. Kenmare Resources, owner of the Moma Titanium Minerals Mine in the northern province of Nampula, announced that exploratory drilling has found much more titanium ore than expected. Kenmare now expects to recover 101 million tons of ilmenite, a significant increase over the earlier estimate of 72 million tons. Construction on the mine is also ahead of schedule, now 81% complete, and should be finished before the end of this year. Kenmare expects to produce at least 700,000 tons of ilmenite, 60,000 tons of zircon and 17,000 tons of rutile each year for at least 20 years. The mine is expected to employ over 400 employees and create around 1500 indirect jobs. Once operational, the mine is projected to contribute up to 2.4 percent per year to Mozambique's GDP. IFC Purchases 5 Percent of Gas Project -------------- ¶3. IFC, the private sector financing arm of the World Bank, signed a purchase agreement with the Mozambican Hydrocarbon Company (CMH) on March 27. Under the terms of this agreement, IFC will now own five per cent of CMH's shares in the Pande/Temane Natural Gas Project in the southern province of Inhambane. The South African petrochemical company Sasol will still own 70% percent of the Pande/Temane project, with the remaining 30% owned by CMH (25%) and the IFC (5%). The agreement took effect as of April 1, 2006. Current gas production from the project is approximately 91 mega joules and Sasol representatives state they look forward to a rapid increase in gas production over the next few years. If increased production is realized, Sasol has expansion plans that will result in a significant increase in the amount of natural gas available to the Mozambican market. IMF Reviews Tax Policy at GRM's Request -------------- ¶4. The IMF conducted a review of Mozambique's tax policy, at the request of the Government of Mozambique. The IMF examined the structure and design of the tax system, with administration issues only of peripheral consideration. After completing its review, the IMF concluded that the GRM's tax policy is overall sound, with only small deficiencies. The review highlighted some problem areas: a) absolute tax revenues are going up, but are declining as a percentage of GDP; b) there are overly generous terms to mega projects that are essentially unrestricted by time and c) administration of the system. Based on what IMF officials called "precarious" data, the GRM has the potential to collect 22 percent of GDP. However, currently it collects 11 percent of GDP in taxes, with royalties and fees boosting total revenue to 14 percent. Looking forward, there are two significant tax collection gaps that will need to be filled - the missing portion of potential collections and the projected fall in customs revenue that will result MAPUTO 00000460 002.2 OF 003 from the SADC free trade agreement's required reduction in tariffs. GRM Narrowly Missed 2005 Revenue Collection Target -------------- -------------- ¶5. The GRM declared in March that it missed its 2005 revenue collection target, falling short by 0.4 percent of GDP. Collected revenue was equivalent to 14.1 percent of estimated GDP, short of the 14.5 percent goal. Mozambican officials plan to focus on improving the links between the tax administration and taxpayers, increasing the number of tax collection offices and fighting corruption and fraud. Not all observers found the shortfall upsetting, some believing the original goal of 14.5 percent unrealistically ambitious. USAID/GRM Announce Tourism Development Project - "Development of Tourism in the Northern Arch" -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶6. On March 3, USAID officials and Tourism Minister Fernando Sumbana announced the USAID sponsored tourism project - "Development of Tourism in the Northern Arch". The project focuses on promotion of tourism in the northern region, specifically the provinces of Nampula, Niassa and Cable Delgado and will be implemented over the next three years. USAID is contributing USD 5.5 million to the project, which will consist of three prongs. The first prong focuses on attracting tourists through rehabilitation of Ibo Island and other endeavors, while the second prong focuses on attracting investors. The third prong is dedicated to preserving the environment through creation and support of a Pemba Bay Conservancy and a National Park on Lake Niassa. USAID will have a lead role in project implementation. Port Concessionaire and Railway Parastatal in Dispute -------------- -------------- ¶7. Rui Fonseca, Chairman of the parastatal Mozambican Ports and Railway Company (CFM),made several public statements in March accusing the Maputo Port Development Company (MPDC) of failing to honor its contracts and causing huge losses to CFM. Under the concession agreement, MPDC is supposed to pay an annual amount fixed to the US Consumer Price Index, plus a percentage of pre-tax gross income. MPDC officials say that they have not paid the fixed amount to CFM for the last two years because CFM is also in violation of the concession agreement. (Note: This amount is USD 10 million. End note.) According to MPDC, the concession agreement required CFM to rehabilitate the railway line connecting the Port of Maputo with Ressano Garcia, the closest border crossing to South Africa. CFM has not yet been able to rehabilitate this line, recently canceling a concession with the South African firm SpoorNet after years of inactivity. Prior to independence, the Port of Maputo handled over 15 million tons of product per year. The Port currently handles approximately 6 million tons per year, and MPDC officials state that rehabilitation of the rail line is critical to reaching pre-independence levels. Debtor Companies Given Additional Time to Pay Overdue Social Security Contributions -------------- -------------- ¶8. The GRM announced on March 20 that companies would be given an additional three months to pay overdue social security contributions. The current amount outstanding is estimated to be over USD 4.8 million. Collection of contributions owed to the National Social Security Institute (INSS) has been an ongoing struggle, with many companies deducting the amounts for worker paychecks but failing to transmit the money to the INSS. In August of 2005, Minister of Labor Helena Taipo fired the INSS General Director and many INSS employees in an effort to refocus the entity and fight corruption. Fifty Percent of Exports go to South Africa -------------- MAPUTO 00000460 003.2 OF 003 ¶9. Sergio Macamo, economic advisor to Mozambique's Ministry of Industry and Commerce, speaking at an investment seminar in neighboring Nelspruit, South Africa, on March 14, emphasized South Africa's role as a major economic partner with Mozambique. According to Macamo, not only do fifty percent of Mozambique's exports go to South Africa, but fifty percent of its imports are South African as well. Macamo stated that Mozambican companies were looking for partners in glass, textile and rubber ventures, and that Mozambique offered vast opportunities for investors in mega- projects such as coal mining, bio-diesel manufacturing, aluminum and refurbishment of railway lines. La Lime