GOVERNMENT OFFERS MILF "SELF-DETERMINATION"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 004836 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2016 TAGS: PREL PINS KISL MY RP SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT OFFERS MILF "SELF-DETERMINATION" INSTEAD OF NEW TERRITORY REF: A. MANILA 4802 ¶B. MANILA 4656 Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. At President Arroyo's direction following her POTUS meeting on the margins of APEC, Chief GRP negotiator Secretary Afable briefed us November 22 on the government's new offer to the MILF to allow the Muslims of Mindanao to establish their own form of government in Muslim majority territories of Mindanao. The proposal side-steps the MILF demand for "ancestral domain" over non-Muslim majority territory by offering extensive self-government, including police powers, in Muslim territories, in sharp contrast to the heavily negotiated powersharing arrangements of the MNLF's 1996 peace agreement. Afable explained that "self-determination" was always the stated goal of MNLF and MILF leaders, and would be difficult for MILF leaders to reject. The proposal would force leaders of Muslim factions to unite, or at least cohabitate, instead of each seeking a better deal from Manila. "Self-Determination" had always been anathema to Manila, but the Administration now believed that Congress and local Christian leaders in Mindanao would agree to let the Muslims govern themselves as they choose. The proposal's risks include a slide towards independence and reducing central government control over terrorist havens, but Afable underscored that the Philippine Armed Forces would retain jurisdiction over a potentially more politically peaceful Muslim territory. If the MILF accepts the proposal, Afable said the government would place it squarely in the 2007 election congressional election campaign, hoping that newly elected congressmen would promise to support the proposal with a framework law. A transitional council in the current territory of the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao would be responsible for convening delegates to draft a new charter for Muslim Mindanao, under which new leaders would be elected in 2010. The MILF has yet to respond to this dramatic new proposal. End Summary. -------------- Self-Determination and its Risks -------------- ¶2. (C) GRP Peace Panel Chief Secretary Silvestre Afable told Deputy Chief of Mission on November 22 that the government had offered the MILF "self-determination" in a Bangsamoro Juridical Entity (BJE) covering the six provinces of the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM),and possibly some additional Muslim majority geographic areas contiguous to the ARMM. Given the long-standing call by Muslim leaders for self-determination, Secretary Afable believed the MILF would find it difficult to reject the proposal, even though it would mean dropping their claims to non-Muslim majority territories to become part of BJE under the concept of "ancestral domain." Rejecting such an offer for self-determination would be difficult for the MILF Central Committee to explain to the Muslim populace in Mindanao, according to Afable. ¶3. (C) Afable said President Arroyo and her cabinet had approved the proposal, though some cabinet members were initially concerned that self-determination could mean a slide towards independence, encouraging the MNLF to renew its claims to Sabah, Malaysia. Afable believed that the concept of independence was no longer a danger, after many years of negotiations on the basis of autonomy. He acknowledged that MNLF leader Nur Misuari, whom he knows well, continues to hope to reclaim Sabah, but believed that problem was manageable. Other cabinet members raised concerns over the central government's ability to enforce law in the Muslim entity. Afable acknowledged this risk, but believed that Muslim leaders could be very effective with their own police force against terrorists and drug traffickers. In any event, he pointed out, the Armed Forces of the Philippines will continue to exercise jurisdiction in the new entity. -------------- Local Government Leaders Receptive -------------- ¶4. (C) Afable said that Presidential Peace Advisor "Jess" Dureza had quietly sought the views of some of Mindanao's Christian leaders, who have been highly concerned that their localities would be handed to a new Muslim entity in a peace agreement. They were receptive to Muslim self government, including Zamboanga City Mayor Celso Lobregat, as long as their own municipalities were not included in the Muslim entity, according to Afable. MANILA 00004836 002 OF 002 -------------- --- Moro Self-Determination to Become Election Issue -------------- --- ¶5. (C) Afable noted the Arroyo Administration's plan to mobilize support for the new proposal among political candidates in the May 2007 elections. Passage of a law regarding the framework for the new Muslim entity would be placed on the agenda of the new Congress after the elections, according to Afable. Upon the expiration of ARMM Governor Zaldy Ampatuan's term of office in 2008, President Arroyo intends to form a transitional council that would convene delegates to a convention to draft a new governing structure for their entity. After years of negotiating with Muslim leaders on institutional arrangements, Afable said he had concluded that political systems emphasizing overt contests between those in power and an opposition were not suited to the more consensus-oriented Muslim culture. He believed the Muslims themselves could establish more appropriate governing mechanisms than could be established in negotiations with the central government. He did not predict any difficulties over central government control of foreign affairs, national defense, and national monetary policy. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) The government's new proposal is a creative effort to break the impasse in the negotiations over MILF claims to non-Muslim majority territory. It may turn the tables on the MILF, MNLF, the Ampatuan clan and others who seem more interested in negotiating separately with Manila than coordinating among themselves. However, Mindanao is full of factions vying for power who have no current intention of sharing power in a Muslim entity. The MILF has said that it is carefully studying the new proposal. Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/ KENNEY