DEFENSE SECRETARY SEES KAPIT BISIG AS "BIG PLUS"

S E C R E T MANILA 003066 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MTS USPACOM FOR FPA HUSO SECDEF/OSD/ISA/AP FOR TULLAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/10/2016 TAGS: MOPS MCAP MARR PTER PREL RP SUBJECT: DEFENSE SECRETARY SEES KAPIT BISIG AS "BIG PLUS" TO CT EFFORTS REF: MANILA 2937 Classified By: (U) Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Defense Secretary Cruz views the Kapit Bisig framework as a "big plus" for US-RP counterterrorism cooperation, is focused on neutralizing High Value Targets, and believes the Kapit Bisig implementing guidelines are flexible enough to accommodate a variety of circumstances. He takes the long view on the Communist insurgency, predicting it will take 6-10 years to defeat it using military and socio-economic tools. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) In private talks with DCM at the July 18 Philippine Defense Reform (PDR) talks, Secretary of National Defense Cruz expressed satisfaction at the successful conclusion of the Kapit Bisig counterterrorism framework negotiations (reftel),saying that it was "a big plus" to the common goal of eliminating terrorism. ¶3. (S) Cruz said he viewed the accompanying implementing guidelines as a standing offer of US assistance that Philippine commanders could draw upon, should the need arise, to support their counterterrorism operations. He particularly focused on their flexibility to accommodate operations necessary to neutralize High Value Targets. The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) had already developed several potential areas of cooperation in addition to those in the implementing guidelines -- such as joint intelligence fusion and analysis centers; joint civil-military and psychological operations; and use of precision-guided munitions delivered from either AFP or U.S. (with accompanying AFP crew) platforms. "Let's gain experience and see the gaps," Cruz said, adding that he hoped the US interaction with the AFP would provide "a scientific basis" for determining what new equipment the Philippine military needed to acquire themselves. ¶4. (C) Asked about press reporting that the Administration hoped to defeat the Communist insurgency in two years, Cruz ascribed the remark to Presidential Advisor Mike Defensor and called Defensor's remarks "unrealistic." He said that President Arroyo had never made that prediction, and that he told her it would take 6-10 years strategically to defeat the NPA. The campaign to defeat the Huk rebellion in the 1950's and the successful effort by the Ramos administration against the Communist Party of the Philippines/New People's Army (CPP/NPA) in the 1990's had each taken 6-10 years. Cruz noted that the decline in CPP/NPA strength from its peak of 26,000 insurgents in 1987 to 4,500 in 1997 had been helped by dramatic improvements in the economy. We need to repeat what we did earlier, Cruz said, observing that already CPP/NPA strength, currently estimated at 7,500 insurgents, was declining at the rate of 13% per year. He believed that the "Kalayaan Barangay" program aimed at improving the socio-economic conditions of under serviced communities in Communist and Muslim insurgent areas could help win back the population to the government's side. "We need to under promise and over deliver," Cruz concluded. ¶5. (C) COMMENT. Cruz is right to take the long view about the NPA insurgency. While the GRP just announced it will allocate 700 million pesos ($13.4 million) to the AFP and 300 million pesos ($5.7 million) to the Philippine National Police to eliminate the NPA, it will require a sustained effort of military operations and socio-economic programs to defeat the Communist threat and to win over Muslim separatist groups. However, other officials differ. The incoming Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Esperon, reiterated the two-year pledge during his July 21 change of command ceremony. Visit Embassy Manila's Classified website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm Kenney