MAGUINDANAO CLASHES UNLIKELY TO UPSET PEACE PROCESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 002833 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2016 TAGS: MOPS PINS KISL RP SUBJECT: MAGUINDANAO CLASHES UNLIKELY TO UPSET PEACE PROCESS REF: A. MANILA 2013 ¶B. MANILA 0740 Classified By: Pol/C Scott Bellard for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Armed clashes erupted between GRP security forces and elements of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) on June 28 when police officials attempted to serve arrest warrants on two MILF commanders related to a June 23 bombing in Shariff Aguak that left seven dead. While members of the Malaysia-led International Monitoring Team (IMT) and GRP Coordinating Committee on the Cessation of Hostilities (CCCH) are determined to mediate an end to the conflict, tensions remain high and sporadic fighting continues, leaving hundreds or perhaps thousands displaced from their homes. This latest outbreak of hostilities in the long standing rido (feud) between the powerful Ampatuan clan and individual MILF commanders is unlikely to derail the peace process, but is a tragic reminder of the difficulties of achieving true peace in Mindanao. End Summary. -------------- Fighting Erupts -------------- ¶2. (U) During the morning of June 28, shooting began in the Mamasapano area of Maguindanao Province when Philippine National Police officers attempted to serve arrest warrants on MILF Commanders Said Pakiladatu and Ameril Ombrah Kato for alleged involvement in a June 23 bombing apparently aimed at assassinating Maguindanao Provincial Governor Andal "Andy" Ampatuan. According to the Philippine Bomb Data Center (PBDC),an improvised explosive device (IED) hidden in a multi-cab detonated at about 7:05 a.m., destroying the fourth of eight vehicles in Ampatuan's convoy. The blast wounded seven and killed seven others, including Governor Ampatuan's nephew Kamlon Ampatuan, Congressman Simeon Datumanong's nephew Kahelo Datumanong (a grand nephew of Governor Ampatuan),and local politician Edzrapel Mangansakan. Governor Ampatuan was unharmed; he has also survived three prior ambushes, although his son Saudi (ref b) and other relatives have not been so lucky. ¶3. (U) The Civilian Volunteer Organization (CVO) and Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) used mortars and howitzers to shell positions held by Pakiladatu and Kato. Fighting spread within Shariff Aguak, Mamasapano, Datu Unsay, and Datu Saudi Ampatuan on June 29, displacing hundreds of families. Tensions remain high and sporadic armed clashes continue as of July 6. -------------- Trying To Restore Peace -------------- ¶4. (C) According to Executive Director of the GRP Peace Negotiations Panel Secretariat Ryan Sullivan, members of the Malaysia-led International Monitoring Team (IMT) and GRP Coordinating Committee for the Cessation of Hostilities (CCCH) attempted to mediate a cease fire on June 28, but were unable to enter the conflict affected area due to security concerns over continued fighting between the MILF and CVO/Civilian Armed Forces Geographical Unit (CAFGU) forces loyal to Governor Ampatuan. Consequently, the IMT established a monitoring outpost and temporary holding area for displaced persons at Guindolongan on the periphery of the conflict. AFP Chief of Staff Generoso Senga also traveled to Maguindanao on June 30 to help the IMT and CCCH diffuse the conflict, without success. ¶5. (C) Sullivan said that the CCCH had recommended the establishment and enforcement of a "no firearms zone" within the four municipalities of Maguindanao affected by the fighting, along with the withdrawal of CVO members from these areas. AFP Chief of Staff Senga met with his senior commanders on July 3 to discuss these recommendations, which Governor Ampatuan and the MILF commanders would also have to accept. While lines of communication remain open among the IMT, CCCH, and MILF, Governor Ampatuan has for now stopped communicating directly with IMT and CCCH members. All inquiries/contacts are handled by the Governor's Administrative Assistant, who is unauthorized to make any decisions, according to Sullivan. ¶6. (C) GRP-MILF Ad Hoc Joint Action Group (AHJAG) Chairman Ben D. Dolorfino has separately been holding discussions with the MILF since June 24 regarding a proposal for AHJAG to conduct an investigation and validation of intelligence regarding the June 23 bombing. MILF Secretariat Chairman MANILA 00002833 002 OF 002 Muhammad Ameen stated on July 3 that the MILF was willing to cooperate with the GRP on such a joint investigation. Ameen also commented that the MILF did not consider Governor Ampatuan an enemy. However, MILF Peace Panel Technical Adviser Musib Buat expressed concern to poloff that factions within the AFP appeared determined to wage war on Muslims in Mindanao for budgetary, career advancement, political, and/or other agendas. Buat commented that if AFP support to Ampatuan's "private army" were severed, Ampatuan's power in Maguindanao Province would rapidly dissipate. ¶7. (SBU) On July 6, Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process Jesus Dureza traveled to Maguindanao to assess the situation on-the-ground. -------------- Comment: Peace Process Continues -------------- ¶8. (C) Officials from the GRP and MILF continue to insist that they remain committed to the peace process and do not intend to let the latest skirmishing derail ongoing negotiations. The prevalence of violence in the weapons-rich and rido-driven Mindanao will nonetheless make the achievement of genuine peace difficult, even after the latest violence subsides and in the wake of any eventual GRP-MILF peace accord. All parties seem to recognize that cutting off peace talks and disbanding the IMT and/or AHJAG would only lead to more conflict and bloodshed, a tribute in particular to how far these young institutions have already come to having a positive -- if not yet powerful -- impact on the political and military landscape. Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/ Kenney