LOCAL ISSUES -- NOT MANILA POLITICS -- DOMINATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 001259 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, INR/EAP, INR/B E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/21/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINS ECON PREL PINR SOCI RP SUBJECT: LOCAL ISSUES -- NOT MANILA POLITICS -- DOMINATE DEBATE IN NORTHEASTERN PROVINCE REF: A. MANILA 0830 ¶B. 05 MANILA 2470 ¶C. 05 MANILA 2064 Classified By: Acting Pol/C Joseph L. Novak for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Based on emboffs March 16-17 visit, recent political turbulence in Manila appears to have garnered little attention in Isabela Province in northeastern Luzon. Governor Grace Padaca, the 2006 Ninoy Aquino Award for Public Service winner, remains popular, but faces entrenched opposition. With mid-term elections slated for 2007, issues such as illegal logging and land reform are likely to dominate the local political debate. Our soundings in Isabela reflect what we have heard in other areas outside of the capital -- Manila politics are far, far away and are often viewed dismissively. End Summary. -------------- Disconnected from Manila Politics -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Recent political turbulence in Manila appears to have had little impact in Isabela -- a large, mainly rural province located about 200 miles northeast of Manila. During March 16-17 meetings with POLOFF and pol LES, local politicians and activists, religious leaders, and students expressed a distinct lack of interest in Manila politics. Practically all interlocutors reported that President Arroyo's State of National Emergency had "no impact" in Isabela and life went on normally. (Note: The State of National Emergency was imposed on February 24 and rescinded on March 3 -- see ref a. End Note.) While the State of National Emergency was in effect, there was only a trace of local opposition to the measure, with only one small demonstration taking place in the capital city of Ilagan. Several observers expressed the view that Manila politicians were out of touch with the needs of citizens in the rural Philippines, adding that Manila's constant political infighting did not have much impact on day-to-day life in the provinces. ¶3. (SBU) Mainstream Opposition groups, in general, do not appear to have a large profile in the region. A majority of contacts expressed dissatisfaction with President Arroyo's job performance, however. She apparently improved her image a bit by visiting Isabela in December 2005 and again in February 2006 in the wake of floods that destroyed crops and displaced many residents. President Arroyo, contacts said, moved quickly to release relief funds to improve flood control and rebuild flood-affected areas. ¶4. (C) Elements of the Communist New People's Army (NPA) appear to exert influence in some parts of the province. Police Superintendent Abraham Balderas basically dismissed the NPA as a threat to the region, however. He told POLOFF that there had been one attack by the NPA during 2005, resulting in the death of one police officer. (Note: Other sources report that at least four armed clashes occurred between NPA forces and government security forces in 2005. In addition to some mountain redoubts, there is also evidence that the NPA may exert some influence in Ilagan. End Note.) -------------- Padaca's Priorities -------------- ¶5. (C) In a March 16 meeting, Governor Padaca stated that her priorities for the province were to fight corruption and inefficiency and to provide productive employment for the citizens of Isabela. Most contacts believe that she is doing a good job and that she maintains high popularity. She is not without her detractors, however. Padaca, a former radio commentator and 2006 Ninoy Aquino Award for Public Service Fellowship winner, won the governorship in 2004 by upsetting incumbent Faustino Dy Jr. in a fiercely-fought contest. The Dy Family, which had held the governorship continuously for over 40 years, staunchly opposes Padaca and plans to try to retake the governorship in 2007. The Dy clan -- which maintains a reputation for corrupt dealings and violence -- continues to be a powerful political force in the province, with vast land holdings and control of two mayoral positions and a seat in Congress. -------------- MANILA 00001259 002 OF 002 Looking toward '07 Elections -------------- ¶6. (C) Governor Padaca told POLOFF that she had not yet decided whether to run for re-election in May 2007. (Note: National mid-term elections for House and Senate seats, as well as gubernatorial and mayoral races, are set for that timeframe. There has been some discussion of postponing mid-term elections as part of the ongoing debate over Constitutional change. End Note.) If she chooses not to run, she may endorse longtime ally Congressman Edwin Uy. Benjamin Dy, a presidential advisor and the half brother of the defeated Faustino Jr., is set to try to reclaim the governorship for his family. (Note: Although Dy is a Malacanang adviser, President Arroyo reportedly also maintains cordial ties with Governor Padaca. End Note.) In addition, Delfinito Albano, the Mayor of Ilagan, has announced his intention to run. The gubernatorial election likely will turn on a few key local issues, including illegal logging and land reform. ¶7. (C) Re the first matter, Padaca has launched a strenuous crackdown by banning all logging. In doing so, she has won the approval of civil society groups and environmentalists. Her position is also aligned with that of the Catholic Church, which strongly opposes widespread logging because of the environmental damage it causes. (Note: Some experts believe that recent floods were exacerbated by deforestation caused by illegal logging. End Note.) During a March 16 meeting with poloff, Ilagan Deputy Mayor Jose Marie Diaz indicated that Mayor Albano likely will try to use the logging issue to his advantage in the upcoming campaign, arguing that the total ban was destroying the livelihood of the many Isabelinos engaged in the furniture industry. ¶8. (C) Leaders of the Indigenous People's Consultative Body expressed frustration over the slow progress of land reform. Under a program administered by the National Commission of Indigenous Peoples (NCIP),two indigenous tribes are slated to receive parcels of land in the Sierra Madre mountain range, based on claims of ancestral domain. No land has yet been redistributed, however, because the program lacks funding to conduct sustainability assessments as required by law. Indigenous peoples are upset that Padaca has not been able to do more in this area. Padaca is also being criticized by some local residents for failing to secure sufficient government funds for various local projects. Congressman Anthony Miranda, an ally of Governor Padaca's, told POLOFF on March 16 that many of his constituents were complaining of reduced agricultural subsidies from the government in Manila. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Our soundings in Isabela reflect what we have heard in other areas outside of the capital -- Manila politics are far, far away and are often viewed dismissively. Filipinos living outside the hothouse atmosphere of the capital are generally far more focused on the bread-and-butter issues of livelihood and provision of services (and their own local political dramas). They are not consumed with the buzz from Manila, which so occupies the capital's political and chattering classes. The surprise 2004 victory of Governor Padaca over an entrenched political dynasty represented a shock to the traditional local power structure. So far, Padaca appears to be doing an excellent job at governing. The Dy family is ruthless, however, and will continue to challenge her at every step. Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/ Kenney