MINISTER DISCUSSES ELECTION ISSUES WITH AMBASSADOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000646 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/16/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KMPI BA POL SUBJECT: MINISTER DISCUSSES ELECTION ISSUES WITH AMBASSADOR REF: MANAMA 549 Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe. Reason: 1.4 (B)(D) ¶1. (C) Summary. The Ambassador, in an April 15 meeting with King confidant Hassan Fakhro, raised concerns about NDI's status in Bahrain as well as apparent harassment of local NGO Bahrain Transparency Society. Fakhro provided some clarity on plans for this year's elections, saying the government is working on three key issues: merging the municipal and parliamentary elections for cost and administrative reasons; extending the legal date by which the municipal elections must be held so that they can be held in the fall; and finding a date in the fall -- a matter complicated by the timing of Ramadan, which this year starts in late September. Fakhro said that the King recognizes that uncertainty on the dates of the parliamentary elections has raised concerns, which may have been alleviated somewhat by Minister of Cabinet Affairs Shaikh Ahmed Atiyatallah's strong reaffirmation last week that elections will be held this year. End summary. ¶2. (C) The Ambassador met April 15 with Minister of Industry and Commerce Hassan Fakhro, a close confidant of the King, to get his thoughts on the political climate in Bahrain in the run-up to municipal and parliamentary elections this year. The Ambassador began by reviewing some recent developments that, taken together, suggested a possible drift in Bahrain's commitment to democratic reform. First, there was the continued impasse on NDI's status and ability to operate in Bahrain. The fact that NDI was raised in the Crown Prince's recent meetings at the State Department and NSC highlighted the importance of this issue to the USG. The Ambassador raised it again with the CP earlier this month (reftel),and plans to discuss it with the Foreign Minister when he returns to Bahrain. Deputy National Security Advisor Elliott Abrams has written to the Foreign Minister suggesting a possible solution, but in the meantime we are left with an unacceptable draft MOU presented by the Bahrain Institute for Political Development (BIPD). ¶3. (C) Second, the Bahrain Transparency Society (BTS),which receives MEPI funding for several programs, has been investigated by the Ministry of Social Development for several minor infractions. The effect has been to slow down and hamper the ability of BTS to operate. BTS is now in the process of reorganizing itself to meet Ministry requirements, but the close scrutiny of its operations has had the appearance of harassment. BTS is an important civil society organization in Bahrain that hopes to monitor the 2006 elections, as it did in 2002. Finally, continuing uncertainty about elections dates, the proposed merging of the municipal and parliamentary elections, and the possible aligning of municipal and parliamentary electoral districts has fed doubts about the government's commitment to holding elections this year. The Ambassador acknowledged that Minister of Cabinet Affairs Shaikh Ahmed Atiyatalla's strong reaffirmation last week that the elections would be held this year helped alleviate concerns, but until the election details are formally announced there will inevitably be worries. ¶4. (C) Fakhro stated that he thought the NDI issue could be worked out, and put the blame for the current difficulties on BIPD head Lulwa Al-Awadi, who he said can be tough to work with. When the Ambassador suggested that palace support for NDI appeared to have weakened, Fakhro disagreed and said that the palace wanted to disengage itself from a direct role on NDI, but that he was not aware of any change in attitude. (Comment: We believe that the King and Minster of Royal Court Shaikh Khalid have in fact cooled to some degree on NDI and its activities in Bahrain. End comment.) Fakhro said that he planned to meet with the Crown Prince later in the day, and would discuss the NDI issue with him. He had no specific observation on BTS, other than to say that Minister of Social Development Fatima Balooshi, like Lulwa Al-Awadi, can be tough to deal with. ¶5. (C) On the election timetable, Fakhro said that he had been at Safriya Palace the previous night with the King who, in effect acknowledging that election timetable uncertainties had created doubts, stated that the government had been wrong not to categorically deny weeks ago rumors that there would be a delay in the elections. Fakhro added that one source of the rumors of a possible delay is sitting parliamentarians who fear -- with the expected participation of Shia opposition society Al-Wifaq -- that they will lose their seats. They would like to delay the elections as long as possible to extend their time in parliament. ¶6. (C) Fakhro stated that, in trying to nail down dates for the elections, the government was looking at three issues: holding the municipal and parliamentary elections at the same MANAMA 00000646 002 OF 002 time, extending the date by which the municipal elections can be held so they can be legally delayed to the fall, and finding an appropriate date to hold the elections. On the question of holding the two elections on the same date, he said that the government would like to so because it was cheaper and easier to administer. The government had wanted to merge the two elections in 2002, but hadn't managed to do so. The Ambassador asked about concerns that unifying the two elections and unifying municipal and parliamentary districts might lead to a redistricting that would increase the number of MPs representing the lightly populated (mostly Sunni) southern district at the expense of more populous Shia districts. Fakhro dismissed that possibility, saying that, if implemented, he expected the municipal districts to match the existing parliamentary districts (in other words, there would be no change in the number of representatives from the southern governorate). ¶7. (C) To address the need to delay the municipal elections, which by law should be held every four years (in other words, by May),Fakhro stated that the Cabinet has approved a law which would give the King the authority to extend the life of the municipal councils by six months, or until November. The more difficult issue is when exactly to hold the elections, which is complicated by Ramadan, which will start this year on September 23. If the elections are held before Ramadan, campaigning would have to take place in July or August, which would be difficult with so many people away on vacation. Otherwise, elections will have to wait until after Ramadan -- late October or November. ¶8. (C) Another complication, Fakhro stated, is the budget debate. The Cabinet has been reviewing the budget bill in committee, and expects to forward it to the parliament in the first two weeks in May. Ideally, the parliament would pass the budget before it adjourns at the end of June. However, if it does approve the budget, the new parliament, which is expected to have a dramatically different composition with the participation in the elections of Al-Wifaq, may object to a budget that it did not pass. But if they leave the budget to the next parliament, at best it will not convene until after Ramadan in late October, and at worst not until the end of the year if the elections are put off until after Ramadan. By law, the budget is supposed to be approved by October, he stated. ¶9. (C) On the budget process more generally, Fakhro said that new Finance Minister Shaikh Ahmed al-Khalifa has improved the process markedly. The last draft budget under the previous Finance Minister, Abdullah Seif, was presented to the Cabinet so late that there was no opportunity to review it before passing it on to the parliament. The Cabinet simply rubber stamped the Finance Ministry's presentation. This year, the Cabinet's finance committee has had a chance to discuss the draft budget for three weeks in a row, giving Ministers a chance to review and provide input. ¶10. (C) Finally, the Ambassador noted recent rumors that small-scale demonstrations and clashes carried out by small groups of Shia youth have actually been instigated by former Ministry of Interior informers (from the days of Shia violence in the 1990s),which would suggest that the government may be stoking the Shia extremists as a tactic to discredit Shia in the run-up to the election. Fakhro, who was aware of the rumors, dismissed them as "rubbish," saying it is outrageous to think that the Ministry of Interior might be behind these incidents. (Note: the press reported on April 16 that the Interior Ministry arrested eight men on charges of illegal assembly, damaging public property, and arson, including burning tires and setting fire to garbage bins. They will be held in custody for 15 days for further investigation, according to press reports.) MONROE