DEPUTY PM, FOREIGN MINISTER AGREE TO COUNSELOR

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 000442 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR C, NEA, NEA/ARP, NEA/IR E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2016 TAGS: PREL PARM PTER MARR EFIN KISL KNNP BA IR REGION BILAT OFFICIALS SUBJECT: DEPUTY PM, FOREIGN MINISTER AGREE TO COUNSELOR ZELIKOW'S PROPOSAL FOR STRATEGIC DIALOGUE REF: A. MANAMA 0358 ¶B. MANAMA 0180 Classified by Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (S) State Department Counselor Zelikow met separately with Deputy Prime Minister Shaikh Mohammed bin Mubarak Al Khalifa and Foreign Minister Shaikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa March 12 to initiate a strategic dialogue on regional security, including concerns about Iran. They agreed with the U.S. assessment of Iran's revolutionary and subversive ambitions in the region. They said the GCC could play an important role in conducting the next stages of a strategic dialogue. Saudi Arabia is the key country in the region and needs to be brought on board to launch the initiative. Shaikh Khalid proposed that U.S. and GCC foreign ministers meet in an isolated, casual setting to brainstorm about dealing with regional challenges, including the Iranian threat. They also discussed Iran's nuclear program, the internal situation in Iran, and Iranian meddling in regional countries. End Summary. -------------- Strategic Dialogue to Oppose Iranian Threat -------------- ¶2. (S) Counselor Zelikow, accompanied by Centcom J5 Director Rear Admiral Moeller and the Ambassador, met with Deputy Prime Minister Shaikh Mohammed bin Mubarak Al Khalifa and Foreign Minister Shaikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa March 12 to inaugurate a strategic dialogue on regional security, including concerns about Iran. The Counselor said it appeared to Washington that Iran's regime seeks to promote a violent, revolutionary, extremist agenda. The nuclear program is just one manifestation of this agenda, but it also includes terrorism and subversion of foreign governments. Iran's number one priority is to reduce United States power in the area so it can intimidate and neutralize local governments. The U.S. seeks to work with Gulf states to counter Iran's moves and counter the impression that the Iranian tide is rising while the American tide is ebbing. The strategy would encompass diplomacy, security, and financial investment, including in regional energy resources, without an ostentatious display of U.S. force. There is some risk to standing up to the Iranians that the regional states would have to accept. -------------- -------------- Although Slow and Cautious, GCC Best Forum for Dialogue -------------- -------------- ¶3. (S) ForMin Shaikh Khalid thanked the Counselor for the explanation. He said it provided new direction and context for the Secretary's comments during her meeting with GCC foreign ministers in Abu Dhabi February 23. In reply to the Counselor's question, Shaikh Khalid said that the GCC was "not even at the beginning" of having a strategy to deal with Iran. The GCC is a slow, cautious institution with antiquated, complex internal procedures. It is riven with petty disputes and rivalries among the members, such as small border issues and ownership rights of shared petroleum deposits. A joint U.S.-GCC strategic plan could prod the members to work together and elevate their engagement. For the GCC countries, it would be important not to have any individual, unplanned moves on Iran; full coordination is best. Within the GCC, Oman is the exception on Iran. Foreign Minister Yusuf bin Alawi has met twice with Larijani and now argues that there is no proof Iran has embarked on a nuclear weapons program. ¶4. (S) Shaikh Khalid recommended that the U.S. urge Saudi Arabia to take a fresh look at how it deals with its "little brothers" in the GCC. While Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait have progressed, Saudi Arabia's way of dealing with them does not change. Saudi Arabia is the most important country in the region. Once it decides to deal with Iran as a real threat, it can devote diplomatic energy and real work toward addressing Iran. This would be a "breath of fresh air" in the organization. The GCC should take a position against Iranian ambitions and the U.S. and GCC should quickly launch a strategic dialogue. Shaikh Khalid proposed that GCC and U.S. foreign ministers, and perhaps defense ministers separately, meet in an isolated location without media to brainstorm in a casual, low-key way about Iran. A serious, open dialogue would help build the partnership and allow the parties to move forward together. This could take place as soon as the U.S. had completed its consultations with GCC members. ¶5. (S) Deputy PM Shaikh Mohammed said the countries of the region had to work collectively with the United States in facing Iran. One country alone could not do it. The GCC is a good framework for this discussion, although it is far from perfect. Shaikh Mohammed suggested the possibility of a GCC-NATO dialogue on Iran to cover long-term interests and strategy. Iran will only be deterred by power and strength, he said. -------------- Nuke Program Unites Iranians -------------- ¶6. (S) Saying he had visited Tehran in late January, ForMin Shaikh Khalid explained that he had noticed a change in Iranian rhetoric about its nuclear program. Whereas President Ahmadi-Nejad had termed nuclear weapons "haram" during his UN address last September, Foreign Minister Motakki used the weaker formulation "contrary to our religious beliefs." The Iranians claimed they were not scared of sanctions, saying the country was used to them (Ref B). The nuclear program is a national issue that unites Iranians. ¶7. (S) Deputy PM Shaikh Mohammed said Iran's development of a nuclear program was a direct threat to the region. Bahrain has opposed the introduction of nuclear weapons in the Middle East for a long time. The GCC has emphasized that the Gulf, in particular, must be free of nuclear weapons. Bahrain told Iran that while it has a right to develop nuclear technology, the IAEA would be the judge of the program (Ref A). Bahrain worries that Iran will reach an advanced stage in its nuclear development, from which the move to weapons is quick and easy. In this event, Bahrain would need cover and protection from its allies. While Bahrain wants to avoid conflict, it needs to think about a worst case scenario. Shaikh Mohammed suggested development of a joint plan to deal with Iran. -------------- Signs of Strife In Iran -------------- ¶8. (S) ForMin Shaikh Khalid noted there are signs of internal problems and strife in Iran, such as bombings taking place in some parts of the country. On the streets, men are more likely to be dressed as "soccer players and Western pop stars" than wearing beards, and there are reports that some Iranians are leaving Islam and becoming Zoroastrians. Former President Khatemi transited Bahrain recently, on his way to and from Qatar, and Shaikh Khalid said Khatemi told him that he could not believe Ahmadi-Nejad had been elected president. Khatemi said he had built bridges to Iran's neighbors and the West, but Ahmadi-Nejad destroyed them. -------------- Iranian Interference in Bahrain, Region -------------- ¶9. (S) In response to the Counselor's question, Shaikh Khalid said the GOB had evidence that the Iranian Ambassador in Bahrain was distributing cash to agents inside the country and it was only a "matter of time" before Iran became directly involved in Bahrain's internal affairs. The Iranians want to impose pro-Iran clerics on Bahraini Shias. Clerics travel regularly to Qom and some are declared ayatollahs even though they do not deserve this rank. Iran threatens Bahrain at a time when Bahrain is opening up to the world and implementing political and economic reforms domestically. ¶10. (S) Regionally, Shaikh Khalid said Iran uses all the levers at its disposal to promote its hegemony in Iraq and the Gulf region. They want a weak Iraq plagued with terrorism. Iran is not only arming Shia militias but also possibly Sunni insurgents. It supports Hizballah in Lebanon and may give aid to Hamas, thus enabling Hamas to ignore the pressure of the international community. It has gained a foothold in northern Yemen by arming and financing the Houthis, a group in rebellion against the central government. Shaikh Mohammed agreed that Iran's goal is to push the United States out of the Gulf region and undermine local governments. "Everywhere they find an opportunity, they take it." The countries of the region have to send a unified message that Iran must not interfere. -------------- Iraq, Palestinians Also Of Concern -------------- ¶11. (S) Deputy PM Shaikh Mohammed emphasized that the Israel-Palestinian situation and Iraq are very important to Bahrain. The deterioration in Israeli-Palestinian relations creates an atmosphere for extremists to gain influence, in the Palestinian territories (Hamas),Egypt (Muslim Brotherhood),and even in Bahrain. On Iraq, Bahrain cannot trust a government run by Iranian agents. Iraq needs a truly national government, not one run by Sunnis or Shias or Kurds. Regional governments would have to gain trust in the Iraqi government before investing in its petroleum sector, even if the investments could be profitable. Shaikh Mohammed recommended that the U.S. make its regional friends feel that they are strategic allies rather than talk publicly about decreasing America's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. ¶12. (U) Counselor Zelikow cleared this cable. MONROE