CROWN PRINCE AND A/S HILLEN DISCUSS SECURITY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 002024 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2016 TAGS: PREL MARR BA BILAT REGION SUBJECT: CROWN PRINCE AND A/S HILLEN DISCUSS SECURITY ASSURANCES, REGIONAL CHALLENGES Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) . -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) In their December 8 meeting on the eve of the opening of the IISS Manama Dialogue conference, Crown Prince Shaikh Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa told a U.S. delegation led by State A/S Hillen, CENTCOM Vice Admiral Nichols, and NSC Senior Director Doran that the stronger the U.S. message is on security commitments to the region, the better. He recommended joint military exercises, a gently escalating tone in public statements, and a specific declaration of U.S. intent. Bahrain and the UAE would welcome a guarantee, and getting Saudi Arabia on board would provide "critical mass." The CP said that intelligence gathering in the region is often unsophisticated and recommended that the U.S. hold confidential briefings for officials and decision makers. The SIPDIS CP said the government was worried about Iran employing Hizballah-like tactics in Bahrain, exploiting extremists in the local Shia population. Bahrain does not trust Iran and considers it to be a strategic threat. The CP said that in his speech to the IISS conference, he would call for dialogue with Syria. (He did not mention Syria in his speech but did call for engaging Iran.) The U.S. side said President Bush, during his press conference with PM Blair, had made clear the conditions he placed on dialogue with Syria and Iran. A/S Hillen noted that peeling Syria away from Iran would be a major setback for Iran. The CP said that Palestinian PM Haniyah had visited Bahrain recently and asked for money. If Haniyah gains negotiating strength, he said, it will make things worse. End Summary. -------------- -------------- Strong Message on U.S. Security Commitment to Region -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Meeting on the eve of the opening of the IISS Manama Dialogue conference, Crown Prince Shaikh Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa told Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs Hillen, Deputy CENTCOM Commander Vice Admiral Nichols, NSC Senior Director for Middle East and North Africa Affairs Doran, and the Ambassador December 8 that he wants to work with the U.S. to energize the Gulf Security Dialogue (GSD). He proposed that he lead the Bahraini delegation to a Spring 2007 GSD plenary in Washington. A/S Hillen welcomed a full exchange of ideas at that time and asked the CP his view of the possibility of moves to reaffirm and update the nature of U.S. security commitments in the region as a way to counter Iranian hegemony. He requested the CP's advice on form and timing, if a statement were made. The CP replied that an explicit declaration would be "very much appreciated" and the stronger the message is, the better. There should be exercises, a "gently escalating tone" in public statements, and a specific declaration of U.S. intent. ¶3. (C) The CP said that the UAE and Bahrain would welcome a U.S. security declaration. Qatar is "hard to read," but if the U.S. gets Saudi support for the idea, there will be critical mass. As he has mentioned at other times, the CP recommended a "Bright Star-like" major multilateral naval exercise in the Gulf. By maintaining the pace of exercises, he said, more regional parties will participate. -------------- Intel Gathering Unsophisticated -------------- ¶4. (C) Shaikh Salman cautioned that intelligence gathering in the region is unsophisticated, and leadership decisions are often based upon television reports and public perceptions. For example, in the recent Iranian military exercise "Noble Prophet," the reality was much less important than the television images. Bahrain and the United States should ensure we see things in the same way on intelligence matters by pursuing confidential briefings. ¶5. (C) The CP said that in his December 9 speech to IISS conference delegates, he would call activities in the nuclear field unwelcome because they would encourage others to launch programs and lead to an arms race. He will also talk about Iraq, citing the need for progress on federalism, rationalizing the de-Baathification program, expanding oil output, and disarming militias. On the Israel-Palestinian track, he will echo what is going on already. MANAMA 00002024 002 OF 002 -------------- Iran a Strategic Threat to Bahrain -------------- ¶6. (S) The United States shares Bahrain's strategic outlook, A/S Hillen replied. We worry that Iran may reach the wrong conclusion about its policies - pursuing the nuclear program, supporting Hizballah and other armed groups - to promote hegemony in the region. The U.S. is focusing on the nuclear policy and is concerned that Iran's actions could lead to greater proliferation. The Crown Prince said Bahrain has a vital interest in Iran not employing Hizballah-like tactics in Bahrain, exploiting extremists in the local Shia population, for example, like some involved in the Haq Movement. The government is watching Shia extremists just like it watches Sunni extremists. Bahrain does not trust Iran and considers it to be a strategic threat. Bahrain wants to contain Iran and to work closely with the United States. -------------- Question of Dialogue with Syria -------------- ¶7. (C) On Syria, the Crown Prince said the Asad regime feels isolated and is looking for anyone who can help it. Bahrain wants Syria to cease and desist in Lebanon to improve the chances for progress on the Golan Heights and the Syria track. In his speech to the IISS conference, he will call for dialogue. (In fact, he made no mention of Syria in his speech. He did, however, call for engaging Iran.) Dr. Doran referred to the recent press statement by President Bush, in which he made clear the conditions for a dialogue with Syria. There needs to be more pressure sooner, Doran said. President Asad is riding high, and he views any engagement as a victory. A/S Hillen said that down the road, peeling Syria away from Iran would be a major setback for Iran. U.S. policy is hard-edged, but in combination with the policies of others, we can achieve this goal. The CP commented that Iran was getting a high profile from its regional relations, including with Syria, and containment and deterrence are important concepts in dealing with this threat. -------------- Engagement on Palestinian Track -------------- ¶8. (C) In response to Shaikh Salman's question, A/S Hillen said the Secretary's meeting with GCC foreign ministers on the margins of the Jordan Forum for the Future conference had gone very well. The U.S. appreciates GCC support for reengagement on the Israel-Palestinian track. Dr. Doran said that the move to change the Palestinian government had come to a halt. Based upon Abu Mazen's track record, this halt could be tactical. The United States has emphasized the need to build up and improve the Palestinian security services so that they can take on Hamas one day, if necessary. The CP stated that Prime Minister Haniyah had visited Bahrain recently and asked for money. Qatar had reportedly offered $40 million. If Haniyah gains negotiating strength, Shaikh Salman said, it will make things worse. ¶9. (U) A/S Hillen and Dr. Doran cleared this cable. ********************************************* ******** Visit Embassy Manama's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/manama/ ********************************************* ******** MONROE