CROWN PRINCE TELLS GSD DELEGATION THAT U.S., GCC

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 001850 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2016 TAGS: PREL MARR PARM BA IR REGION BILAT OFFICIALS SUBJECT: CROWN PRINCE TELLS GSD DELEGATION THAT U.S., GCC NEED TO SEND STRONG MESSAGE TO IRAN REF: STATE 171822 Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) . -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (S) Crown Prince Salman told the interagency Gulf Security Dialogue (GSD) delegation that the U.S. and its GCC allies need to send a strong message to Iran, and suggested holding a major military exercise in the region. He thought it would be "a great motivator" for the other GCC countries for the Saudi military chief of staff to inform his counterparts that Saudi Arabia views favorably efforts to promote multilateral interoperability. In response to a question, the CP said that some GCC countries may be waiting to see that the U.S. is fully committed to the region before joining the GSD process. Iran will not be stopped "unless we stand shoulder-to-shoulder," the CP said, while making every effort to avoid military action. He agreed that the GOB would form an interagency team to engage with the USG on the Dialogue. Shaikh Salman explained his view that the most serious fault line in the region was moderates versus extremists, not Sunni versus Shia, and there should be a serious effort made on the Israel-Palestinian peace process. End Summary. ¶2. (S) The interagency Gulf Security Dialogue delegation led by Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs John Hillen and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Peter Rodman met with Crown Prince Shaikh Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa October 18 to discuss achieving progress on the six pillars of the Dialogue (reftel). The delegation also met with King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, Deputy Prime Minister Shaikh Mohammed bin Mubarak Al Khalifa, and Ministry of Foreign Affairs Assistant Under Secretary for Coordination and Follow Up Shaikh Abdul Aziz SIPDIS bin Mubarak Al Khalifa (septels). -------------- Enhancing the Security Relationship -------------- ¶3. (S) A/S Hillen opened the meeting with Crown Prince Salman by recalling that the CP had challenged the GSD delegation during their last visit in May to "put some meat on the bones" of the Dialogue idea. As a result of that challenge, the group had developed the concept of the six pillars to accelerate, broaden, and deepen our bilateral security relationship. He requested Shaikh Salman's reaction to the proposals. The CP said that the read-ahead paper focused on the most important areas and that the U.S.'s bilateral approach to each of the GCC countries was the right way to go at this point, but urged that the GSD become multilateral. He continued that the U.S. and its GCC allies needed to send a strong message by holding a major ("Bright Star-like") military exercise in the region. Centcom's RADM Moeller added that an exercise would promote bilateral interoperability that could then be extended into multilateral interoperability, the most effective military posture for the region. ¶4. (S) Shaikh Salman agreed, saying it would irresponsible not to do this, in particular in reference to a joint air defense initiative. Bahrain would welcome a technical team to discuss the Bilateral Air Defense Initiative as soon as possible. The Bahrain Defense Force's (BDF) capabilities must be up-to-speed. In response to the CP's question, A/S Hillen said the USG had spoken to the Saudis about the air defense initiative and they were supportive. The CP commented that it would be beneficial for the Saudi military chief of staff to tell his GCC counterparts that Saudi Arabia viewed the initiative favorably, calling such a message "a great motivator" for others in the region. A/S Rodman added that the Kuwaitis also supported the air defense initiative. Shaikh Salman stressed the importance of joint military planning, stating that the BDF wants to make better use of the Military Coordination Committee and reconstitute the Military Planning Committee. -------------- Getting the GCC On Board -------------- MANAMA 00001850 002 OF 003 ¶5. (S) A/S Rodman said that Oman and Qatar had not been as supportive of the GSD concept as the U.S. would like and requested the CP's thoughts. Shaikh Salman replied that all countries want to halt the spread of Iranian power and contain its strategic position. However, some GCC countries were still feeling the effects of the U.S. pulling back from the region after 9/11. Next, the USG's reform push had led to some results that were not desirable in the short term. People may be unsure of the U.S.'s strategic commitment to the region. Omanis are practical. They want to be sure the U.S. is on a "solid trajectory" before committing to the GSD. But, he said, the U.S. has to rebuild confidence with some in the GCC. ¶6. (S) Turning to Qatar, Shaikh Salman said their attitude was marked by contrariness. Deputy Prime Minister Shaikh Mohammed added that Qatar wants a role on the world stage that is bigger than its size justifies. The CP said that Qatar had taken some steps in the UN Security Council and with Al Jazeera that were not helpful. They claim they have to balance the presence of U.S. forces at Al Udeid with Al Jazeera, but the CP does not accept this argument. He said we need Qatar on board and offered to work with the GOQ on this. He cautioned that the key is to get the Saudis back to where they had been with Qatar. He noted that he had just visited Saudi Arabia and Prince Sultan recognizes there has been a shift regarding Iran and knows what needs to be done. -------------- Iran Respects Strength -------------- ¶7. (S) Regarding Iran, the CP said the GOI engages in proxy wars, supports terror groups, and funds a big WMD program. Iran will not be stopped "unless we stand firm shoulder-to-shoulder." Thus, the USG should provide a "security umbrella." Iranians respect strength. Every effort should be made to avoid military action and to explain to the government the consequences of its behavior. The U.S. should work with the Chinese, Indians, and Russians on this, and the U.S. could attend an EU-3 session with Iran as an observer. If this fails, the focus should turn to intelligence efforts to disrupt Iran's nuclear program. The GOI cannot sustain the program without the Chinese. ¶8. (S) If, however, there needs to be military action, the focus must be on changing the Iranian regime's behavior, the CP said. The U.S. should not talk about nation building or liberation; this serves only to confuse the issue. Once the decision is made to drop bombs, the goal must be nation defeating. A/S Hillen suggested that the Gulf states also reach out to the Iranian people and explain that pursuing nuclear weapons is not in the country's interests. The CP agreed that there are moderates within Iranian society who could respond to such an argument but they are not united and are difficult to identify. A/S Hillen said the GSD process puts pressure on Iran to change its behavior. The CP said Iran thinks it has the upper hand in Lebanon and Iraq, and now plays the role of the center of anti-U.S. influence in the region. -------------- Protecting Infrastructure, Regional CT Center -------------- ¶9. (S) Referring to the read-ahead paper, A/S Hillen requested the CP's thoughts on protecting critical infrastructure. Regarding oil exports, Shaikh Salman said there should be alternate routes to the Strait of Hormuz. He noted that regional countries generally consider it to be their responsibility to protect oil from the ground to the ships, and the international community's responsibility to protect it from that point on. There are many possible ways to look at this issue, including energy alternatives, that could be addressed in future GSD sessions. ¶10. (S) In response to A/S Hillen's question, the CP said there was not enough support in the GCC (including within the government of Bahrain) for a regional counter-terrorism center. There may be a way to work together to get the same results but without a high profile center, which could become a target. The goal was to build a system that gets information to the right people in a timely manner, and there could be a way to create a "virtual" regional center by connecting national centers. The CP proposed locating the physical hardware to link the centers in Bahrain and MANAMA 00001850 003 OF 003 suggested people should approach this issue pragmatically. -------------- GSD Follow Through -------------- ¶11. (S) The CP asked about following through on the Dialogue. A/S Hillen said the U.S. and Bahrain should form a multi-agency task force that meets twice per year to cover the range of subjects. In the meantime, working groups would meet on specific issues. The CP agreed, saying the GOB would form an interagency team. -------------- War of Ideas - Moderates vs. Extremists -------------- ¶12. (S) The Crown Prince stated that the most serious fault line in the region is not Sunni/Shia, it is moderates versus extremists. The issue is all about power, not religion. He cautioned against going too far with a sectarian analysis. There must be a serious effort made on the peace process. The Palestinians have to take the lead and deal seriously with the Israelis. But the U.S. should send a message that when the Palestinians are ready, it will work with them. Abbas might pull out all the stops and hold a national referendum on peace. If he does so, and we cannot get negotiations started, "this could be our last shot." The CP acknowledged that the Arabs could have been more forceful in the past with the Palestinians, but Iran had not been as much a clear and present danger at that time. A/S Rodman assured the CP that the U.S. was active on the issue. ¶13. (S) Deputy PM Shaikh Mohammed explained that Palestinian President Abbas had asked that Bahrain approach Syria about being more positive with the Palestinians. Foreign Minister Shaikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa had just visited President Asad in Damascus, who had provided assurances that Syria was ready to cooperate. However, the CP added, Syria is "not on Saudi Arabia and Egypt's good list" and the Syrians are not banging on the door looking to come in from the cold. ¶14. (U) A/S Hillen and A/S Rodman cleared this cable. ********************************************* ******** Visit Embassy Manama's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/manama/ ********************************************* ******** MONROE