SCENESETTER FOR UNDER SECRETARY HUGHES' OCTOBER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MANAMA 001827 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR R, NEA E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2016 TAGS: PREL SCUL PGOV OEXC KMPI BA POL REFORM OFFICIALS SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR UNDER SECRETARY HUGHES' OCTOBER 31-NOVEMBER 1 VISIT TO BAHRAIN Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) . ¶1. (C) We warmly welcome your October 31-November 1 visit to Bahrain. Your trip comes at an important moment in promotion of the freedom agenda in Bahrain, with parliamentary and municipal elections to be held November 25 and December 2. Of the 221 candidates standing for election to parliament, 18 are women and one of them, Lateefa Al Qaoud, is running unopposed, guaranteeing she will become Bahrain's, and the Gulf's, first woman elected to parliament. For such a small country, there is a wide variety of media outlets representing a range of political and social perspectives. While we receive largely favorable coverage of our programming and successfully place stories, interviews, and editorials, several widely read anti-American columnists routinely criticize U.S. policies, their favorite targets being Iraq, Israel, and Guantanamo. Our education and exchange programs focus on increasing mutual understanding and building trust between Americans and Bahrainis and boosting public support for U.S. polices and reform goals. Working in concert with the Ministry of Islamic Affairs, we have coordinated exchange programs in both Bahrain and the United States designed to promote moderation and tolerance in religious discourse. ¶2. (C) Bahrain is an avid participant in the range of MEPI-funded programs, the exception being the National Democratic Institute's (NDI) democracy program, which the government forced out of the country in May over alleged unhappiness with the project director's ties with oppositionists. Cultural ties between the U.S. and Bahrain go back over 100 years, when the American Mission Hospital was established in Manama in 1903. The U.S. Navy has had a presence in country for 50 years and Bahrain hosts the headquarters of the U.S. Naval Forces, U.S. Central Command (Navcent)/Fifth Fleet. Bahrain is a major non-NATO ally and a staunch supporter of U.S. policies in Iran, Iraq, and the Global War on Terror. The recent visit of a senior U.S. interagency delegation resulted in King Hamad's decision to work with us to accelerate, broaden, and deepen our security relationship under the rubric of the Gulf Security Dialogue (GSD). The U.S.-Bahrain free trade agreement (FTA),the first in the Gulf and third with an Arab country, entered into force on August 1 and bilateral trade is on track to surpass $1 billion for the first time. -------------- --- 221 Parliamentary Candidates, Including 18 Women -------------- --- ¶3. (C) The first round of parliamentary and municipal elections will be held on November 25, with the second round one week later on December 2 for run-offs between the top two vote-getters. These are the second set of elections since the adoption of the 2002 constitution and feature the participation of political societies representing all political trends in the Kingdom, including the Shia oppositionists who boycotted the 2002 elections. There are 221 candidates, including 18 women, running for the elected lower house of parliament's 40 seats. One of the women, Lateefa Al Qaoud, is running unopposed, making her the first elected member of parliament in Bahrain and the Gulf. The new parliament will include a much broader cross-section of Bahraini political opinion than the outgoing parliament, enhancing its credibility and providing a boost for the King's political reform project. A recently leaked report drafted by a former advisor to a minister and senior member of the ruling family alleges that the minister had organized a secret team and disbursed over $2.5 million in an attempt to sway election results. The resulting uproar has roiled the political scene and, possibly as a result of the outcry, the King announced that a plan to use e-voting in the elections would be shelved, and the government has indicated its approval of the deployment of truly independent election monitors, possibly even international monitors, for the elections. -------------- Press Environment -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Considering the small size of the market, Bahrain has a vibrant media environment with six Arabic dailies, one Arabic weekly, and two English dailies, which cater to the Western and Asian expatriate population. Bahrain TV broadcasts in Arabic and English and regional Arabic and MANAMA 00001827 002 OF 004 other foreign language stations are available via satellite. Blogs have become a key communication method for oppositionists, especially young people. The government blocks some internet sites but allows many other highly politicized sites and blogs to operate. We receive largely favorable coverage of our programming and successfully place stories, interviews, and editorials. However, several widely read columnists routinely criticize American policies, their favorite targets being Iraq, Guantanamo, and Israel. The Al Watan newspaper is particularly hostile to the U.S. freedom and democracy agenda and another, Akhbar Al Khaleej, has many "former" Baathists and pan-Arabists among its reporters and columnists who are vehemently against U.S. policies on Iraq, Iran, and Israel. -------------- -------------- Education and Exchange Programs, Islamic Outreach -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Bahrain is regionally known as a leader in education and is committed to the education of all Bahrainis. At the primary and secondary level, government schools are single sex; private schools are mostly coed. The state-sponsored University of Bahrain is coed as are almost all private universities. Many students go abroad for university education; the U.S. and UK are the most popular Western destinations. We have a very productive relationship with the Ministry of Education. MEPI's "My Arabic Reader" and civic education programs are welcomed in the classrooms. The Bahrain ACCESS English language micro-scholarship program is the largest in the Gulf. We are launching our Youth Exchange and Study (YES) program this year, and participation in the Fulbright and Humphrey programs is robust. We are installing an American Corner in the main reading room of the flagship new Bahrain National Library. ¶6. (SBU) Dr. Fareed Muftah, under secretary of the Ministry of Islamic Affairs, is the moving force behind an initiative to promote tolerance and moderation in religion. To support his efforts, we have arranged for, and R has supported, an American Imam to visit Bahrain during the past two Ramadans. Imam Yahya Hindi of Georgetown University visited in 2005 and spoke to a number of influential Bahraini audiences about shared values, interfaith dialogue, and freedom of religion in the United States. Imam Bashar Arafat, president and founder of the Baltimore-based Civilizations Exchange and Cooperation Foundation, visited Bahrain in October 2006 and discussed bridging cultural divides and Islamic life in the United States. Four Bahraini clerics representing both the Sunni and Shia sects participated in a ten-day Voluntary Visitor program in June 2006 and met with other religious scholars, activists, and academics to broaden their understanding of the United States and the role of religion in public and private life. -------------- MEPI Partner -------------- ¶7. (C) Bahrain is a robust participant in MEPI programming covering areas such as democratic development, rule of law and legal reform, civic education, women's empowerment, commercial law development, FTA implementation, labor reform, and environmental protection. After months of negotiations aimed at establishing a legal means to allow NDI to continue operating, the GOB forced the NDI project manager to depart the country in May. Although the public reason for his departure is that he had no legal status in the country, government officials privately expressed their concern that the project manager had become too close to political oppositionists, in particular leading Shia opposition political society Al Wifaq. Many people close to the situation believe the ouster reflected the government's nervousness about NDI working with all willing political societies in the run-up to the elections, and perhaps that the NDI representative knew the local political environment too well. The government has been careful not to end the program entirely and has agreed to allow representatives of political societies and organizations involved in the elections to participate in an NDI study program in the Washington, DC area coinciding with the November mid-term elections. In urging the GOB to allow the NDI program to resume operations, we have emphasized the damage this incident has had on the bilateral relationship and Bahrain's reputation. ¶8. (SBU) The women's pillar is a major focus of our MEPI MANAMA 00001827 003 OF 004 programming. Following on a November 2005 Freedom House family law conference in Bahrain, MEPI is funding another Freedom House project to develop family law advocacy materials for Bahraini and Kuwaiti reformers and to train them to use the materials to reach communities at the grassroots. The International Republican Institute conducted a MEPI-funded campaign school in Dubai for six Bahraini women candidates and others from the region in June 2006 and will hold consultations with the Bahraini candidates in the lead-up to the parliamentary and municipal elections. Post is currently holding discussions with civil society group representatives to conduct a MEPI-funded "Get Out The Vote" awareness campaign targeting women voters. -------------- Military Relations -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The U.S. Navy has worked closely with Bahrain for more than fifty years. When the U.S. Fifth Fleet was re-commissioned in 1995, Bahrain took the controversial step of being the first Gulf state to provide host government support for regionally "home-ported" U.S. Navy forces, and Bahrain remains the only country in the region which hosts a permanent component command headquarters, specifically, U.S. Naval Forces, U.S. Central Command. Navcent directs naval operations in the Arabian Gulf, Arabian Sea, and Gulf of Aden in support of Operations Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom, CJTF Horn of Africa, as well as Maritime Interception Operations to enable freedom of navigation and to prevent oil smuggling, piracy and various other operations in support of the Global War on Terrorism. ¶10. (C) Bahrain's relatively stable and secure political environment allows deployed U.S. Navy ships to stop, replenish supplies, and provide crews much needed onshore rest and recreation opportunities. In 2004, 421 U.S. Navy ships called at Manama while 377 ships called in 2005. Bahrain is currently one of the U.S. Navy's busiest overseas port. In direct support of OEF and OIF, Bahrain in 2003 deployed 1,500 troops, a tank battalion task force, and its frigate the RNBS Sabha to defend Kuwait. Bahrain also flew combat air patrols over Kuwait and Bahrain and continues to keep F-16's on 24-7 strip alert. A special operations unit embedded in a UAE contingent deployed to Afghanistan in 2005 and Navcent and the Bahrain Navy are currently discussing Bahraini participation in one of the combined maritime task forces in the Arabian Gulf or Sea. -------------- Dealing With Iran -------------- ¶11. (C) The Bahraini leadership is greatly concerned about increased tensions between the international community and Iran. Bahrain hosted a two-day conference in mid-September for GCC countries during which the Interior Minister expressed concern about GCC countries finding themselves caught in the middle of nuclear powers. Crown Prince Salman suggested to the interagency Gulf Security Dialogue delegation that the U.S. and GCC countries hold a significant military exercise in the Gulf, which would send a strong signal to Iran. The U.S.-organized Proliferation Security Initiative Leading Edge exercise will take place in Bahrain at the end of October, wrapping up on October 30. Bahrain will participate in the exercise and the boarding/interrogation portion will take place in its territorial waters. ¶12. (C) Bahrain's relationship with Iran is complex. The Bahraini leadership is united in its suspicion of Iranian intentions regarding Bahrain and often sees an Iranian hand in incidents involving Bahrain's Shia community, which comprises some 70 percent of the country's citizens. They are convinced Iran seeks to develop nuclear weapons and assert its influence around the region. At the same time, Bahrain faces the reality that it must live with its large neighbor across the Gulf. Bahrain maintains "correct" but not warm diplomatic relations with Iran, with Bahraini leaders welcoming Iranian officials when they visit. Bahraini officials repeatedly assert their strong view that the international community should engage in diplomacy to deal with Iran, and not resort to a military solution. They recognize, however, that a robust military posture can facilitate diplomacy. The economic relationship is based on Bahraini imports of Iranian fruit and other foodstuffs and some Iranian investment in Bahrain. It is not clear that the MANAMA 00001827 004 OF 004 Bahraini leadership has come to grips with how it will handle efforts to ratchet up the pressure on Iran if that includes, for example, calls for cutbacks in trade and engagement. -------------- Next Steps on Iraq -------------- ¶13. (C) The GOB publicly supports U.S. operations in Iraq, but as King Hamad and Crown Prince Salman told the GSD delegation, it believes Iraqi forces should be moving to the front lines in place of coalition forces. The Crown Prince believes there would be three benefits to such a move: it would (a) shore up support in the United States for continued military engagement in Iraq; (b) force Iraqis to take responsibility for their own security; and (c) put the GOI into the position of requesting assistance from its Arab neighbors, which it has not yet done. The GOB's greatest concern related to Iraq is that sectarian tensions and violence could spill over into Bahrain. Bahraini officials will support long-term measures to reduce sectarian violence while recognizing that the near-term situation in Iraq is extremely difficult. -------------- Counter-Terrorism -------------- ¶14. (C) A counter-terrorism bill entitled "Protecting Society from Terrorists Acts" entered into force in August. The law defines the types of acts considered to be terrorism, applies tough penalties, and criminalizes conspiracy to commit terrorist acts. There is some question about whether the conspiracy clause will hold up given the constitutional court's June decision that a similar article in the penal code was unconstitutional. In a first test of the law, the prosecutor general in late September released eight Bahrainis on bond following an investigation into possible terrorist activities. Although several members of the cell admitted to planning to travel to Afghanistan for "jihad," the prosecutor general decided he did not have enough evidence to charge them under the CT law. -------------- First FTA in the Gulf -------------- ¶15. (SBU) The U.S.-Bahrain free trade agreement entered into force on August 1, 2006. It is the first FTA with a Gulf country and the third, after Jordan and Morocco, with an Arab country. Perhaps partly as a result of increased interest generated by the signing and ratification of the FTA, bilateral trade is up 55 percent during the first eight months of 2006 compared with the same period in 2005. Bilateral trade will exceed $1 billion for the first time this year. Since entry into force, the USG has organized and participated in several high profile events publicizing the FTA in Bahrain and the United States. Bahraini public and private sector promotion of the agreement has lagged. We continue to push the Bahrainis to promote the agreement to ensure that the people and economy of Bahrain enjoy its benefits. ********************************************* ******** Visit Embassy Manama's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/manama/ ********************************************* ******** MONROE