SCENESETTER FOR CROWN PRINCE'S SEPTEMBER 12 VISIT

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 001634 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER ASEC MARR MOPS BA REGION BILAT OFFICIALS SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CROWN PRINCE'S SEPTEMBER 12 VISIT TO WASHINGTON REF: A. MANAMA 1599 ¶B. MANAMA 1596 ¶C. MANAMA 1574 Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) . -------------- Demonstrating Strength of Relationship -------------- ¶1. (C) Crown Prince Shaikh Salman bin Isa Al Khalifa will visit Washington September 12, his first official trip to the U.S. since March 2006. His visit comes six weeks after the implementation of the U.S.-Bahrain Free Trade Agreement, and soon after a concerted effort by the senior-most members of the government - King Hamad, Prime Minister Shaikh Khalifa, and the CP - to affirm publicly the importance of the U.S.-Bahrain bilateral relationship (reftels). We believe the reason for this public affirmation is to send a signal to Iran and some opposition elements of Bahrain's Shia community, who might draw the wrong conclusion from Hizballah's perceived "victory" in Lebanon, that Bahrain has made a strategic decision to ally with the United States, and that this alliance is strong and withstands ups and downs in the regional situation. The CP views his Washington visit as another signal of the strength of the relationship and a chance to articulate his concerns about the difficulties and challenges confronting the Gulf and the broader Arab world these days. -------------- Issues of Interest to Bahrain -------------- ¶2. (C) The Crown Prince will want to inform his interlocutors of his offer for the Bahraini Navy to join a coalition task force coordinated in Bahrain by Navcent, possibly the anti-piracy task force outside the Straits of Hormuz, CTF-150 (Refs A and B). As discussed in detail in Ref B, the CP has identified "politicized Islam" as the greatest threat in the region and will recommend that the United States devote more diplomacy and energy to a state-by-state approach to the Arab countries. As we move forward in the war on terrorism, he believes there needs to be more focus on "offering a better idea" to derail the extremists' message. He will also urge that the United States launch a new initiative for peace between Israel and the Palestinians. The continuing hostilities between these two sides, he believes, is the "catalyst for conflict" in the region, and he links U.S. efforts on the Palestinian track to Arab receptivity to confronting Iran and its nuclear program. -------------- U.S. Objectives -------------- ¶3. (S) The visit represents an opportunity for USG interlocutors to emphasize and reaffirm the importance the United States places on Bahrain's commitment to continued political reform in the run-up to parliamentary and municipal elections, likely to be held in November. We should push the CP for positive movement on reinstating the MEPI-funded NDI program in Bahrain, which is still suspended, and let him know the negative impact on perceptions about Bahrain with the USG, which has long hailed Bahrain as a leader in the region on democratic reform. The CP met in May with the interagency delegation led by Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense Henry and Assistant Secretary of State SIPDIS Hillen to discuss the Gulf Security Dialogue, and he will want to hear about our thinking on next steps in dealing with Iran and its nuclear program. We should encourage the CP to promote interagency coordination to address continuing counter-terrorism and security concerns related to Sunni extremists in Bahrain. We can describe for him our approach on humanitarian and reconstruction assistance for Lebanon, and for helping the Lebanese government expand its authority in the face of Hizballah's challenge. -------------- Key Issues To Raise -------------- MANAMA 00001634 002 OF 003 ¶4. (S) We suggest the following issues be raised: -- Recognize the long history of U.S.-Bahrain bilateral relations, which began over 100 years ago with the establishment of the American Mission Hospital in Bahrain. -- Express appreciation for the strength of mil-mil relations, most notably Bahrain's hosting Navcent headquarters. -- Congratulate the CP on Bahrain's successful conclusion of a free trade agreement, the first with a Gulf country, and express our hope that the agreement will lead to increased business between our two countries. -- Urge that Bahrain continue along the path of democratic reform by ensuring upcoming elections are free, fair, and transparent. -- Emphasize that we look forward to a favorable response from the GOB on NDI's proposals to resume programming in Bahrain, and that the failure to allow NDI to operate does impact negatively on Bahrain's reputation in Washington. -- Brief on next steps on Iran and request Bahrain's continued support for our policy. -- Stress our concerns on counter-terrorism and press for improved Bahraini interministerial coordination. -- Describe the U.S. approach on humanitarian and reconstruction assistance for Lebanon, noting our efforts to expand the authority of the Lebanese government. -------------- Political Reform -------------- ¶5. (C) Bahrain will hold legislative and municipal elections in the fall, likely November, the second round of elections since the King launched his political reform process in 2001. Participation will be much more widespread and inclusive than in the 2002 elections due to the decision by several previously boycotting political societies, the largest being leading Shia society Al Wifaq, to contest the elections. Oppositionists complain about government decisions that they believe harm the integrity of the polls, including electoral constituencies that have resulted in overrepresentation of Sunnis and underrepresentation of Shias in the parliament, recent allegations of unfair "political" naturalization of Arab and non-Arab Sunnis and South Asians, and a proposed plan to use e-voting - without a parallel paper system - that could be subject to tampering. The GOB expelled NDI's country director in May and the project remains suspended. The latest action was an August letter from NDI to the Foreign Minister on ways to resume programming, to which the Foreign Minister has yet to reply. -------------- Iran/War on Terror -------------- ¶6. (C) The CP believes that the United States has overemphasized the role of use of force in executing the war on terror. He has stressed that the U.S. should "offer a better idea" to combat the inroads Islamic extremism is making in the Arab world, which he views as the greatest threat in the region. He has described the beneficial impact of economic growth on the stability of societies and indicated that the U.S. should focus more energy on economic reform in the Arab world while easing some of the pressure for political reform. He believes in the centrality of the Arab-Israeli conflict for Arabs and Muslims and has stated that a new U.S. initiative on the Israel-Palestinian track would have widespread benefits, including improving the chances for Arab support in confronting Iran and its nuclear program. -------------- Counter-Terrorism -------------- ¶7. (S) Although U.S.-Bahraini cooperation on counter-terrorism issues has improved tremendously since MANAMA 00001634 003 OF 003 summer 2004, we remain concerned about the GOB's internal capacity for interministerial coordination to address potential terrorist threats. Recent incidents that exposed the lack of internal coordination resulted in several Embassy and Navcent approaches to senior members of the government, including to the Crown Prince, urging improved performance. In August, a counter-terrorism law and separate anti-money laundering/combating terror financing law both entered into force. Article 18 of the CT law criminalizes conspiracy to carry out a terrorist act, a new development. However, Bahrain's constitutional court in June ruled that a conspiracy clause in the Penal Code of 1976 was unconstitutional, casting some doubt on whether the conspiracy article in the new CT law would withstand a legal challenge. The CP has maintained to us that it will. ********************************************* ******** Visit Embassy Manama's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/manama/ ********************************************* ******** MONROE