LEWITES WARNS DAS MADISON THAT AN ORTEGA

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000969 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA K. MADISON, WHA/CEN, USAID/LAC M. MAGAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2016 TAGS: EAID ECON EFIN KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL SUBJECT: LEWITES WARNS DAS MADISON THAT AN ORTEGA GOVERNMENT WILL BE A DICTATORSHIP REF: MANAGUA 0855 Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In Sandinista (FSLN)-dissident Herty Lewites' April 24 meeting with DAS Madison, USAID DAA Mike Magan, and Ambassador, Lewites warned that if FSLN leader Daniel Ortega wins the November elections, Ortega will impose a dictatorship on the Nicaraguan people and assume total control over Nicaragua's police and military. To Lewites, his left-center coalition and Liberal dissident Eduardo Montealegre's right-center alliance offer the best hope for Nicaragua and reflect the aspirations of most Nicaraguans. Ortega and Aleman, however, enjoy the financial backing of Chavez and Nicaraguan capital, respectively. Herty warned that Ortega will try to reach the presidency "through hook or by crook," and is a threat not only to Nicaragua, but also to the region at large. Lewites believes he can resist the Ortega's behind-the-scenes political manipulations. He revealed that he plans on choosing economist/lawyer Edmundo Jarquin as his running mate. END SUMMARY. NICAS HELD HOSTAGE BY ORTEGA BECAUSE ALEMAN LETS HIM - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) In Sandinista (FSLN)-dissident Herty Lewites' April 24 meeting with DAS Madison, USAID DAA Mike Magan, and Ambassador, Lewites blamed Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) caudillo/convicted money launderer Arnoldo Aleman for enabling FSLN leader Daniel Ortega to hold Nicaragua hostage. According to Lewites, Ortega has gained control of most Nicaragua institutions because his pact with Aleman has allowed him to do so, adding that at least this election year, Nicaraguans have two new choices, he and Eduardo Monteaelgre, both who offer to lead Nicaraguans in a positive direction. PLAYING THE LEGITIMACY CARD, PROTECTING THE VOTE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) Lewites opined that Ortega is torn between his ambitions to don the presidential sash and the realization that the elections must look clean for him to rule legitimately. The international community can best help by impressing upon Ortega and the Sandinista-controlled Supreme Electoral Commission (CSE) the necessity of clean, fair, and transparent elections, urged Lewites. Ambassador, DAS, and DAA assured Lewites that this issue is the thrust of U.S. and other donors' efforts and we will indeed play the credibility card. Lewites also sought USG support in defending Nicaraguans' right to vote, to ensure that all "ballots get in the box." To Lewites, Nicaragua's laws are virtually worthless; the FSLN and PLC play with them to suit their interests. For example, the FSLN-dominated Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) moved up the deadlines for alliance and candidate registrations from July to May to reduce his and Montealegre's chances to form broader alliances, complained Lewites. ¶4. (C) Voicing appreciation for IRI's efforts to help Nicaragua prepare for its national elections, Lewites recounted that IRI had called him last week and offered to help train his party's poll watchers (fiscales). To Lewites, the real challenge, however, is convincing people to vote; a high turnout will increase his chances to win the presidency. Lewites expressed concern that the OAS will deploy only 80 observers on Election Day, not enough in his view. In contrast to the situation in Nicaragua, Lewites noted that Mexican Presidential Candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador does not need an army in Mexico to protect his votes because the Mexican people respect the institutions. Lewites opined that safeguarding the validity of Nicaragua's election will require the use of diplomatic pressure and possibly street protests. DANIEL IS THE BOGEYMAN, I'M DIFFERENT - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) Lewites asserted that Ortega is striving to consolidate his dictatorship. He warned that if Ortega wins, he will assume total control the Nicaraguan Army and the Nicaraguan National Police and will destabilize the region. Lewites explained that he was born in a dictatorship and that he does not want to die in one. The key challenge is convincing all eligible voters to go to the polls on November ¶5. ¶6. (C) Lewites shared his plans to counter the attacks that he expects from Ortega's campaign, claiming that Ortega has threatened everyone that has become president since he left office in 1990. Lewites related that he has warned Ortega that if he tries a similar tactic with him, he will throw Ortega in prison, which is why Ortega does not want to see Lewites in power. Further, if Lewites wins, Ortega will not be able to "govern from below" as he has done in the past. While Lewites lambasted Ortega's obsession with returning to power, he asserted that it is again time for Nicaraguans to elect a Sandinista -- Lewites -- as only another Sandinista will be able to settle the Ortega problem. ¶7. (C) Lewites added that he is the only candidate with a record of concrete achievements (as mayor of Managua). He acknowledged that Montealegre enjoys fiscal credibility but claimed he has little popular appeal. Further, Lewites claimed he is the most "Nicaraguan" of the candidates and possesses the energy to resist being blackmailed by Ortega. Lewites also disclosed that he is well known by Jewish capitalists in Central America and they trust his word. NO TO A POSSIBLE JOINT LEWITES-MONTEALEGRE TICKET - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (C) Lewites confirmed that some people have suggested that he and Montealegre join forces on one ticket. However, he dismissed this possibility because he believes such an alliance would only help Ortega-Aleman Pact supporters. However, he does not intend to attack Montealegre, cautioning that presidential candidates should be careful not to insult each other or voters will think they are all the same --"the poor do not care about the Pact if they do not have anything to eat," observed Lewites. FOCUS ON EDUCATION - - - - - - - - - - ¶9. (SBU) Lewites underscored his commitment to making education a priority, lamenting that one million school-aged Nicaraguans do not attending school. In his view, enrollment should have increased, but former President Aleman and others were more concerned with increasing their political and economic power than taking care of the Nicaraguan people. IDB EXPERT EDMUNDO JARQUIN IS HERTY'S RUNNING MATE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶10. (C) Lewites also shared that he will select Edmundo Jarquin as his running mate, a man who will not attract votes, but who will help reform Nicaraguan's economy, address its large domestic debt, and deal effectively with the World Bank, IMF, and the IDB, as well as bilateral donors. (Note: Post reported on this possibility in Managua 0855. Dr. Edmundo Jarquin is a lawyer and economist, former university professor, Ambassador to Spain and Mexico during the Sandinista regime, and a National Assembly Deputy in the early 1990s. Lewites explained that Jarquin has worked for the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) for 18 years and is currently working for Enrique Iglesias in Spain.) ¶11. (U) Participants: Nicaragua: Herty Lewites Victor Hugo Tinoco Carrion Israel Lewites, nephew and personal assistant U.S.: Deputy Assistant Secretary Kirsten Madison Ambassador Paul Trivelli USAID DAA Mike Magan A/DCM Alex Dickie Polcouns Victoria Alvarado Greg Boylan, notetaker TRIVELLI