LIBERAL FORUM MEMBERS TELL DAS MADISON THAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000968

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA K. MADISON, WHA/CEN, USAID/LAC M. MAGAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2016
TAGS: EAID ECON EFIN KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL
SUBJECT: LIBERAL FORUM MEMBERS TELL DAS MADISON THAT
MONTEALEGRE IS THE BEST CANDIDATE, BUT DIVERGE OVER HIS
CHANCES TO BEAT ORTEGA


Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).


1. (C) Liberal Forum (Foro Liberal) members, who dined with
DAS Madison, USAID DAA Magan and Ambassador on April 24,
agree that Liberal dissident Eduardo Montealegre is the
brightest and best-suited candidate to lead Nicaragua.
However, they diverge over whether he can beat Daniel Ortega
in the November presidential election. While Forum members
Adolfo Arguello, FOGADE director Vilma Rosa Leon-York, and
Marco Mayorga unequivocally endorsed Montealegre's candidacy,
Juan Sacasa and Luis DeBayle asserted that Liberal
Constitutional Party (PLC) candidate Jose Rizo is a safer bet
because the PLC possesses the political machinery required to
win an election. They also argued that Rizo will distance
himself from PLC caudillo/convicted money launderer Arnoldo
Aleman once Rizo wins the November election.


2. (C) Madison and Ambassador questioned the assumptions
that Rizo is more likely to win the November 5 election, or
that if elected, he will marginalize Aleman. Madison
reminded the group of the Department's recent statement
condemning the Ortega-Aleman pact and equating Rizo's
candidacy with Aleman's continued control of the PLC. In
essence, a vote for Rizo is a vote for Aleman and for the
Ortega-Aleman pact, and not a winning ticket when polls show
that most Nicaraguans oppose Ortega and the pact and that
Rizo himself is not a draw, she said. DAA Magan also noted
that the much-vaunted PLC machinery had not done particularly
well in the municipal and Atlantic Coast elections.


3. (C) On the margins of the dinner, DeBayle advised
Ambassador that Nicaraguan capital will likely provide
campaign funds to both to Montealegre and the PLC -- to
Montealegre because they think he is the best option for
Nicaragua's future -- and to the PLC because it will likely
win a sizeable number of Assembly seats. DeBayle explained
that, in return for its support for the PLC, the private
sector will select ten Assembly candidates of its liking --
independent business types who need not rely on a lawmaker's
salary to feed their families -- to run for office. (Note:
Carlos Pellas, a relative and business partner of both Sacasa
and DeBalye, recently informed the Ambassador that Nicaraguan
financiers will also hire an outside polling firm to
determine whether Montealegre or Rizo can draw more votes.)


4. (U) Participants:

Foro Liberal:

Adolfo Arguello, Director Banco Uno
Luis H. DeBayle, Executive President ENACAL, Carlos Pellas'
cousin
Marco Mayorga, General Manager Inversiones Lama (Pizza Hut
and Fridays); AMCHAM VP
Vilma Rosa Leon-York, General Manager Security Deposit Fund
(FOGADE)
Juan Sacasa, Director Banco Uno, affiliated with Pellas
Group, grandson of former President Juan Bautista Sacasa

U.S.:
Deputy Assistant Secretary Kirsten Madison
Ambassador Paul Trivelli
USAID DAA Mike Magan
A/DCM A. Dickie
Polcouns Victoria Alvarado
Poloff Nicole Chulick
TRIVELLI