LIBERAL FORUM MEMBERS TELL DAS MADISON THAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000968 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA K. MADISON, WHA/CEN, USAID/LAC M. MAGAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2016 TAGS: EAID ECON EFIN KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL SUBJECT: LIBERAL FORUM MEMBERS TELL DAS MADISON THAT MONTEALEGRE IS THE BEST CANDIDATE, BUT DIVERGE OVER HIS CHANCES TO BEAT ORTEGA Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). ¶1. (C) Liberal Forum (Foro Liberal) members, who dined with DAS Madison, USAID DAA Magan and Ambassador on April 24, agree that Liberal dissident Eduardo Montealegre is the brightest and best-suited candidate to lead Nicaragua. However, they diverge over whether he can beat Daniel Ortega in the November presidential election. While Forum members Adolfo Arguello, FOGADE director Vilma Rosa Leon-York, and Marco Mayorga unequivocally endorsed Montealegre's candidacy, Juan Sacasa and Luis DeBayle asserted that Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) candidate Jose Rizo is a safer bet because the PLC possesses the political machinery required to win an election. They also argued that Rizo will distance himself from PLC caudillo/convicted money launderer Arnoldo Aleman once Rizo wins the November election. ¶2. (C) Madison and Ambassador questioned the assumptions that Rizo is more likely to win the November 5 election, or that if elected, he will marginalize Aleman. Madison reminded the group of the Department's recent statement condemning the Ortega-Aleman pact and equating Rizo's candidacy with Aleman's continued control of the PLC. In essence, a vote for Rizo is a vote for Aleman and for the Ortega-Aleman pact, and not a winning ticket when polls show that most Nicaraguans oppose Ortega and the pact and that Rizo himself is not a draw, she said. DAA Magan also noted that the much-vaunted PLC machinery had not done particularly well in the municipal and Atlantic Coast elections. ¶3. (C) On the margins of the dinner, DeBayle advised Ambassador that Nicaraguan capital will likely provide campaign funds to both to Montealegre and the PLC -- to Montealegre because they think he is the best option for Nicaragua's future -- and to the PLC because it will likely win a sizeable number of Assembly seats. DeBayle explained that, in return for its support for the PLC, the private sector will select ten Assembly candidates of its liking -- independent business types who need not rely on a lawmaker's salary to feed their families -- to run for office. (Note: Carlos Pellas, a relative and business partner of both Sacasa and DeBalye, recently informed the Ambassador that Nicaraguan financiers will also hire an outside polling firm to determine whether Montealegre or Rizo can draw more votes.) ¶4. (U) Participants: Foro Liberal: Adolfo Arguello, Director Banco Uno Luis H. DeBayle, Executive President ENACAL, Carlos Pellas' cousin Marco Mayorga, General Manager Inversiones Lama (Pizza Hut and Fridays); AMCHAM VP Vilma Rosa Leon-York, General Manager Security Deposit Fund (FOGADE) Juan Sacasa, Director Banco Uno, affiliated with Pellas Group, grandson of former President Juan Bautista Sacasa U.S.: Deputy Assistant Secretary Kirsten Madison Ambassador Paul Trivelli USAID DAA Mike Magan A/DCM A. Dickie Polcouns Victoria Alvarado Poloff Nicole Chulick TRIVELLI