APRE LEADER INCHES CLOSER TO MONTEALEGRE

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000932 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/28/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM NU SUBJECT: APRE LEADER INCHES CLOSER TO MONTEALEGRE REF: MANAGUA 0709 Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). ¶1. (C) Alliance for the Republic (APRE) President/National Assembly Deputy Miguel Lopez Baldizon met with Ambassador on April 26 to discuss the feasibility of multi-party primaries. He opined there is no longer sufficient time to arrange such primaries. Further, given Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) presidential candidate Jose Rizo's refusal to compete, Lopez believes their utility would be limited. ¶2. (C) Lopez Baldizon announced that APRE will hold internal primaries on April 30. APRE's 52,000 members will vote in 180 voting sites throughout Nicaragua for candidates for president, vice president, and national and departmental Assembly lawmakers, and PARLACEN deputies. Although APRE has not obtained funding for the event, a number of members are contributing in kind to cover costs. ¶3. (C) He also shared that APRE is now inclined to ally with ALN candidate Eduardo Montealegre, rather than with the PLC, noting that he has reopened communication with Montealegre and will meet with him on April 27. According to Lopez Baldizon, he had tried before to approach Montealegre, but the "door was not open," while the PLC has been willing to meet. What convinced him the PLC is no longer an option is the fact that Aleman chose Rizo. In his view, Rizo is untrustworthy, a weak leader who will be unable to counter Aleman or to lead the party away from him. ¶4. (C) To Ambassador's query regarding the relationship between APRE's and APRE presidential-hopeful Jose Antonio Alvarado's separate discussions with Eduardo Montealegre, a visibly annoyed Lopez Baldizon replied that Alvarado is negotiating "on his own" and does not represent APRE. Further, Lopez Baldizon is concerned that Alvarado will try to strike a deal with Montealegre which would entail Alvarado's choice for deputies, not APRE's. He asserted that only deputy candidates participating in the April 30 primaries will be eligible to represent APRE. ¶5. (C) Comment: The political horse-trading and game of brinkmanship among Montealegre, Alvarado, and Lopez Baldizon is likely to continue until the clock runs out in May. As planned, Lopez Baldizon and Montealegre met on April 27. According to Lopez Baldizon, Montealegre is cognizant that he, not Alvarado, represents APRE. The three of them are scheduled to meet on May 2, hopefully to finalize an alliance. Alvarado is expected to win APRE's presidential candidacy on April 30. An APRE/Alvarado alliance with Montealegre should boost Montealegre and likely create a bump in his favor in the polls. TRIVELLI