CIRCUS ENDS AS ASSEMBLY ELECTS CONSENSUS BOARD ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAGUA 000085 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2016 TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL KCOR SUBJECT: CIRCUS ENDS AS ASSEMBLY ELECTS CONSENSUS BOARD ON SEVENTH ATTEMPT REF: MANAGUA 00050 Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). ¶1. (C) Summary: On its seventh attempt, the National Assembly unanimously elected a consensus board of directors (Junta). The Junta selected lawmaker Eduardo Gomez (APRE) as president. Two Sandinista (FSLN) deputies; two Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) lawmakers; and one deputy each from the Camino Cristiano and Alternativa Cristiana complete the new Junta. Noticeably absent from the board is representation from Eduardo Montealegre's ALN-PC caucus. Eduardo Gomez Lopez appears to have little political backbone and he may allow the PLC and FSLN to maintain their dominance over the Assembly Junta. Deputies from the minor caucuses are also weak or prone to influence, while the FSLN and PLC have kept their first-stringers from last year's cutthroat Assembly. Montealegre's decision to remove his caucus from the ruckus over the Junta election may have been his best option. If his caucus had associated with the FSLN in selecting the Junta it may have prompted some potential voters to question his allegi ance to Liberalism, while Montealegre's associating with the PLC would cause him to lose credibility with independent voters who seek leadership independent from Nicaragua's PLC and FSLN caudillos. Remaining outside of the Assembly's inner circle in an election year will also enable Montealegre's caucus to focus on the electoral process. End Summary. A Consensus Vote at Last - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (U) After postponing the vote on the Assembly's new board of directors (Junta) six times, on January 17, Assembly deputies voted 91 to 0 for consensus candidate Eduardo Gomez (former member of the Liberal Constitutional Party -PLC -- and currently associated with President Bolanos-affiliated party Alianza por La Republica - APRE -- to lead the Junta. The Junta also voted unanimously for Sandinista (FSLN) deputy Rene Nunez; Camino Cristiano lawmaker Reverend Guillermo Osorno as second VP; and Alternativa Cristiana deputy Orlando Tardencilla - who supports FSLN dissident Herty Lewites - as third VP. PLC deputy Maria Auxiliadora Aleman (PLC) was reelected Junta first secretary, while PLC deputy Eduardo Mena and FSLN lawmaker Jose Figueroa were elected second and third secretary, respectively. A Saga of False Starts and Setbacks - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (SBU) An update (Reftel) chronology of the twisted and prolonged saga continues: --On January 11, the National Assembly failed for the second time to vote for its new board of directors (Junta),at first postponing the vote until Friday, January 13. The morning of January 11, Eduardo Montealegre's ALN-PC caucus claimed it had 46 votes (7 ALN-PC votes, 38 FSLN votes, plus independent Jaime Morales). --Meanwhile, Miguel Lopez Baldizon's APRE asserted it had 45 votes (2 APRE, 40 PLC, 2 Camino Cristiano, and 1 of Alianza Herty (Lewites) 2006. Then, according to Embassy contacts, President Bolanos met with Cardinal Obando, Daniel Ortega, and representatives of the ALN-PC to break the impasse. PLC deputy Maximino Rodriguez told us that APRE deputy Eduardo Gomez (Chinandega department) and Camino Cristiano deputy Delia Arellano will provide the 46th and 47th votes required to elect the new ALN-PC/FSLN brokered Junta, possibly with ALN-PC deputy Augusto Valle, or former PLC/now ANL-PC deputy Alfonso Ortega Urbina as president. --Veiled and not so subtle references to Eduardo Montealegre's willingness to reach consensus with the FSLN over the composition of the Assembly Junta were abundant, especially from APRE leader Miguel Lopez Baldizon, who saw his hopes to chair the Assembly dashed by President Bolanos' and Montealegre's refusal to support his candidacy. --News reports later on 11 January asserted that the PLC might compromise and join the ALN-PC/FSLN initiative if the PLC (possibly Eduardo Mena and Maria Auxiliadora Aleman) were to be accorded two key Junta positions. Unable again to get the required quorum to open the Assembly session, Jose Castillo Osorio, president of the National Assembly's MANAGUA 00000085 002 OF 003 temporary board of directors (Junta de Edad) announced that the Assembly would reconvene on January 12 to vote on the new Junta. --Nonetheless, the impasse continued though January 12, as Assembly deputies and presidential candidates and their supporters traded accusations that their competitors were obstructive and politicizing the process to the detriment of the Assembly and the nation. Osejo postponed the session to Friday, January 13. --On the evening of the January 12, President Bolanos, Daniel Ortega, and Eduardo Montealegre informed the media that they had found a "consensus candidate in APRE deputy Eduardo Gomez (formerly PLC). --By the afternoon of Friday 13, the National Assembly's diverse caucuses appeared to have reached consensus on a compromise candidate for the Junta presidency. However, deliberations over the remaining Junta positions continued. The PLC, APRE, and the Camino Cristiano boycotted Rene Nunez's candidacy, this time for the vice presidency. APRE leader Miquel Lopez was adamant to the press on January 16, reasoning that because the FSLN boycotted their candidate (Enrique Quinonez),he would veto Nunez. --On January 16 the vote was once more postponed and rescheduled for January 17. PLC deputy Maximino Rodriguez called polcouns to advise that perhaps the PLC would accept a Sandinista for the first vice president -- Edwin Castro or Wallmaro Gutierrez would be preferable to Rene Nunez -- although he preferred Camino Cristiano deputy Delia Arellano for the position. Of "Pigsties and Troglodytes" - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (U) Verbal insults and jabs on the Assembly floor were sharper than usual during the prolonged debate over the selection of the National Assembly's new Junta. Among the gems: --PLC Deputy Roberto Sanchez lambasted the ALN-PC deputies for abandoning the PLC and "for having no feelings for Arnoldo (Aleman)" and physically shoved ALN-PC deputy Maria Eugenia Sequeira. --Independent Jaime Morales Carazo: Referring to PLC deputy Roberto Sanchez's verbal assault on former PLC deputy Alfonso Ortega Urbina's desertion to Montealegre's ALN-PC caucus, Morales called Sanchez a "cavemen, troglodyte." He lamented that "sometimes (in the Assembly) we see pigs performing tricks." At a later date, Morales warned that the "rodents would not get any cheese," referring to Eduardo Montealegre who is often depicted as Mickey Mouse. --PLC deputy Enrique Quinonez (referring to Gerardo Miranda's short-lived, reportedly feigned desertion of the Sandinista party): "The truth is, only God, Ortega, la Chayo (Ortega's wife Rosario Murillo),and Lenin Cerna know what happened." --On January 15, Father Bismarck Conde of the Managua Cathedral termed the Assembly a "Tower of Babel," criticizing Assembly deputies for their selfishness at the expense of peace in Nicaragua. The Meddling Game, Nicas Surprised U.S. not Brokering Junta - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - ¶5. (SBU) On January 11, Arnoldo Aleman's daughter Maria Dolores Aleman accused the U.S. Embassy of threatening to revoke the visas of at least five PLC deputies if they did not desert the PLC. According to the January 12 edition of El Nuevo Diario (END),Miriam Fonseca, Jorge Torres, Guillermo Montenegro, Roberto Sanchez and Leonel Panting were among the allegedly threatened lawmakers. To the contrary, in El Nuevo Diario's January 16 edition, former Assembly president Luis Humberto Guzman (Christian Democratic Union) praised the U.S. Embassy's maintaining a discrete distance from the Junta selection process. ¶6. (C) Comment: Some PLC deputies, although not the ones that END mentions, have called embassy officials over the past week to seek our intervention in the Junta selection process. We have declined, reiterating that this is a Nicaraguan affair and that we have no candidates. Rather, we are MANAGUA 00000085 003 OF 003 encouraging deputies to elect a board that represents the Assembly's political diversity and one that will get down to the task of legislating for the good of the country. Maria Dolores Aleman's accusations suggest that the PLC is getting increasingly desperate over the possibility of desertion of some of its deputies to the ALN-PC caucus. End Comment. Montealegre's Caucus the "Odd Man Out" - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - ¶7. (SBU) Noticeably absent from the board is representation from Eduardo Montealegre's ALN-PC caucus. Alianza Liberal Nicaraguense-Partido Conservador (ALN-PC) deputy Jose Matamoros asserted that his caucus had decided to end the Junta selection impasse by withdrawing its candidate and supporting a consensus option. In fact, Montealegre's camp probably calculated that the political risks and costs of being embroiled in the National Assembly Junta with the FSLN and/or the PLC in an election year were not worth the potential gains in legislative control. However, the initial assessment in the media was that Montealegre's was the losing caucus in the process. Comment - - - - ¶8. (C) According to some Embassy sources, Eduardo Gomez Lopez has little political backbone and he may allow the PLC and FSLN to maintain their dominance over the Assembly Junta. Deputies from the minor caucuses are also weak or prone to influence, including Reverend Guillermo Osorno, nicknamed Reverendo Soborno ("bribe"),whose voting record suggests he swings in the direction of the highest bidder. Montealegre's ultimate decision to remove his caucus from the ruckus over the Junta election may have been his best option; if his caucus had associated with the FSLN in selecting the Junta it may have prompted some potential voters to question his allegiance to Liberalism. Many Liberal voters -- who are first and foremost anti-Sandinista -- may take their votes elsewhere on election day. On the other hand, Montealegre's associating with the PLC could cause him to lose credibility with independent voters who seek leadership independent from Nicaragua's PLC and FSLN caudillos. Remaining outside of the Assembly's inner circle in an election year will also enable Montealegre's caucus to focus on the electoral process. TRIVELLI