LEADING LIBERAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES AGREE ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000008

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/03/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI NU
SUBJECT: LEADING LIBERAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES AGREE ON
NEED TO UNITE, DEBATE ROLE OF PLC

REF: A. MANAGUA 3246

B. MANAGUA 3230

C. MANAGUA 3172

Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (C) Summary: During a cordial breakfast meeting with the
Ambassador, leading Liberal presidential candidates Eduardo
Montealegre, Jose Antonio Alvarado and Jose Rizo agreed in
principle that the Liberals must unite to confront the FSLN
in the 2006 elections and wrest the Liberal Constitutional
Party (PLC) from convicted ex-President Arnoldo Aleman,s
control. The candidates, however, disagreed on how to
undermine Aleman's influence. Montealegre insisted that
Aleman and his cronies will continue to dominate the party's
leadership, while Alvarado and Rizo prefer to work with
disaffected leaders to reform the party from the inside. The
candidates agreed that the outcome of the March regional
elections on the Atlantic Coast is uncertain, and the
electoral authority has not done its job to ensure voter
registration. Regarding the January 9 elections for the new
Executive Board (Junta Directiva) for the National Assembly,
the three were in accord that neither Enrique Quinonez nor
Rene Nunez, two deputies sponsored by the PLC and FSLN
respectively, should be elected president of the Junta. End
Summary.

CANDIDATES AGREE ON NEED FOR UNITY, BUT NOT PLC STRATEGY
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2. (C) On January 3, the Ambassador, DCM and Polcouns met
leading Liberal presidential candidates Eduardo Montealegre,
Jose Antonio Alvarado and Jose Rizo for breakfast at the
residence. The meeting was cordial and subdued, with less
friction between Montealegre and Alvarado than Emboffs have
observed in the past. The three agreed that Nicaragua's
Liberals must forge an alliance to compete against the FSLN
in the 2006 national elections and free the PLC from the
damaging leadership of Arnoldo Aleman. However, the
candidates still disagree fundamentally on strategy.
Montealegre believes that Aleman will maintain control over
the PLC leadership and may even cede the election to FSLN
leader Daniel Ortega in exchange for an amnesty vote in the
National Assembly. He stressed he could not agree to any
arrangement that would appear like an accommodation with
Aleman; to do so would risk losing 15 percentage points of
public support. The only viable option, he claimed, is to
make a clear break from Aleman and his followers and continue
to "siphon off" decent PLC members.


3. (C) Rizo, while agreeing that Aleman represents a
liability for Liberalism, insisted that he would not have a
viable candidacy without the PLC and spoke of his long
commitment to the party. Rizo emphasized the importance of
the PLC,s machinery and said he is not willing to
participate in an open primary competition separate from the
PLC. He suggested bringing in an independent (external)
polling firm to conduct a survey of Liberal supporters on the
candidates, issues, etc.


4. (C) Alvarado acknowledged that the PLC must be taken from
Aleman, but agreed with Rizo that the move must be done from
the inside. He claimed that many party leaders are
discontented with Aleman,s leadership and that the three
candidates should put together a team to work on the details
of an agreement to form an alliance acceptable to all.


5. (C) The Ambassador suggested bringing their respective
teams together to start working on mechanisms and hammering
out details. Alvarado was in favor, but Rizo and Montealegre
were more cautious. Rizo indicated he is willing to talk,
but did not commit completely, and Montealegre emphasized
once again that he can not give the appearance of making a
deal with Aleman's forces. The Ambassador impressed upon the
candidates the urgency and importance of uniting the
democratic forces as soon as possible. (Note: Following a
meeting with the ALN-PC Executive Committee on January 3,
Montealegre called the DCM to advise that they agreed in
principle to participate in these discussions after the
election of the new Junta Directiva in the National Assembly.
Montealegre asserted that if Aleman ends up in control of
the Assembly leadership, however, "all bets may be off." End
Note.)

ATLANTIC COAST OUTCOME UNCERTAIN
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6. (C) The group held a brief discussion about the Atlantic
Coast elections, in which all seemed to agree that the
outcome is uncertain, turnout is likely to be low, and the
CSE has not done its job to ensure the distribution of voter
ID cards and voter registration. Montealegre also claimed
that, contrary to press reports, Herty Lewites, rallies have
enjoyed little draw.

CANDIDATES REJECT QUINONEZ AND NUNEZ TO LEAD ASSEMBLY
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7. (C) Regarding the January 9 election of a new Junta
Directiva for the National Assembly, the candidates all
asserted that the presidency should not go to PLC-backed
Enrique Quinonez or FSLN-supported Rene Nunez. Though the
candidates did not indicate support for any specific deputy
for the position, Rizo stated that "someone like" moderate
PLC deputies Oscar Moncada or Alfonso Ortega Urbina could
fill the role. (Note: The candidates' preferences are
noteworthy because Montealegre controls six votes in the
Assembly, four deputies are associated with Alvarado, and
Rizo has the sympathy of several PLC deputies. Neither the
PLC nor the FSLN can secure a majority for the elections
without these votes. End Note.)

COMMENT: STILL JOCKEYING FOR POSITION
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8. (C) The leading Liberal candidates agree that the
democratic forces must form an alliance to defeat the FSLN
and that Arnoldo Aleman should not control this process, but
their individual ambition still impedes an agreement.
Alvarado and Rizo know they cannot defeat Montealegre in an
open and fair competition without the support of the PLC
machinery, so they continue to insist that the party can be
reformed from within despite Aleman's enduring and, since his
release from house arrest on medical parole, increasing
domination of the leadership structure. Unfortunately,
without a strong and united "Third Way" alternative, many of
the disaffected PLC members that Montealegre hopes to woo
may, fearful of their own political survival, continue to
tolerate Aleman and resist defection.
TRIVELLI