IT'S MY PARTY - AND I'LL DO WHAT I WANT TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000720 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2016 TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL KCOR SUBJECT: IT'S MY PARTY - AND I'LL DO WHAT I WANT TO REF: MANAGUA 0709 Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: All is not well on the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) farm, as rivals vie for caudillo leader/convicted money launderer Arnoldo Aleman's blessing to run for president on the party ticket. Five of the six PLC pre-candidates recently confronted Aleman about the PLC Central Committee proposal to hold 28 regional "mini-conventions" to vote for the PLC candidate before the April 2 general convention. PLC deputy/presidential-hopeful Enrique Quinonez informed polcouns that he would not participate in the PLC's April 2 convention unless Aleman cedes and cancels the PLC's March 31 pre-convention, which he claims is a ruse to anoint competitor Jose Rizo. According to Quinonez, Aleman and his cronies have already drawn up documents with the decisions of departmental representatives selecting Jose Rizo as the winner of the March 31 event. Under pressure, Aleman conceded that the March 31 mini-conventions will be held under secret ballot. Now all pre-candidates but Noel Ramirez are back aboard and will participate. Until recently, Quinonez was one of Aleman's cronies and a fervent supporter and he may remain so if the wind blows again in his favor. Nonetheless, the fact that Quinonez recognizes that Montealegre may be the best option to beat Ortega is significant even though an eventual political association with Quinonez could more likely hurt than help, Montealegre. END SUMMARY. CHANGES IN RULES OF THE GAME FORCE CANDIDATES TO CONFRONT ALEMAN - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (U) Five of the six PLC pre-candidates schlepped to El Chile on March 27 to confront Aleman about the PLC Central Committee proposal to hold 28 regional "mini-conventions" to vote for the PLC candidate before the April 2 general convention. Pre-candidate Enrique Quinonez publicly repeated his assertion that the candidate should be chosen, as originally decided by the CEN, via a secret vote at the general convention to guarantee a "transparent process" and avoid the dedazo of Aleman. On March 28, Noel Ramirez announced the withdrawal of his candidacy, characterizing the CEN's decision as "legal, but not legitimate." Also on March 28, pre-candidate Francisco Aguirre Sacasa advised that he will withdraw his candidacy unless the PLC cancels its March 31 event. Only front-runner Jose Rizo has not complained, which has prompted more speculation that he is Aleman's "chosen one." ¶3. (C) PLC deputy, presidential-hopeful Enrique Quinonez informed polcouns March 28 that he will not participate in the PLC's April 2 convention unless Aleman cedes and eliminates the March 31 "mini-convention," which Quinonez claimed is a ruse to anoint Jose Rizo. According to Quinonez, who maintains he enjoys considerable support at the departmental level, Aleman and his cronies have already drawn up documents with the decisions of departmental representatives selecting Jose Rizo as the winner of the March 31 event. He also complained that the PLC has added some additional 200 conventioneers to the mix, for a total of 726, probably to stack the votes in the departments. (Note: Aguirre publicly echoed Quinonez' concerns, alleging that only on March 27 were the names of these 200 additional conventioneers released, too late to reach out to them for their support.) ¶4. (SBU) Quinonez provided polcouns a copy of the letter the five candidates sent to PLC party president Jorge Castillo Quant. Signed by pre-candidates Enrique Quinonez, Ramiro Sacasa, Haroldo Montealegre, Francisco Aguirre and Noel Ramirez, the letter calls on the PLC to rescind the March 31 departmental pre-conventions and maintain the original agreement to hold the convention on April 2 under secret ballot. The signatories warn that they will not participate in the candidate selection process unless these conditions are met. The PLC leadership insists it will continue with the two-stage process, that the March 31 vote will be open or secret depending on the will of the departmental SIPDIS participants, and that if no candidate receives 51 percent of the votes in the March 31 process, then the conventioneers will vote in secret for a second round on April 1. (Comment: Some of our PLC contacts allege that Aleman has promised to allocate a number of National Assembly seats to department chiefs in exchange for their loyalty. Their support for Rizo could be part of the bargain.) TIME TO JUMP SHIP? - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) Quinonez shared that he is considering supporting Eduardo Montealegre if it will guarantee Daniel Ortega's defeat. He explained that he now realizes how Montealegre felt when he was expelled from the PLC and recently told Montealegre that he shares his frustration with Aleman's insatiable hold on the PLC to the detriment of the party and Nicaragua to protect his own skin. Quinonez recounted that in a March 26 powwow of the PLC presidential-hopefuls at El Chile, Aleman banged the table and screamed at him after he questioned the fairness of changing in mid-stream the rules of the PLC internal primary. "This is my party and I will do what I (expletive) well please," Aleman reportedly screamed. ¶6. (C) Polcouns reiterated U.S. opposition to caudillo leadership, be it Ortega or Aleman, and the fact that we do not have problems with the PLC as a party, but rather, its leadership. Further, given the Aleman-Ortega pact, Aleman's selection of the PLC candidate could be directed by Ortega, who would certainly favor a weak opponent he could discredit closer to the November election. Quinonez concurred that Ortega may have something to do with Aleman's choice and this could explain the last-minute change in primary procedures to ensure Rizo will win. Claiming he has always opposed the Aleman-Ortega pact, Quinonez blamed co-party members Rene Herrera and Noel Ramirez for serving as intermediaries for the nefarious pact. ALEMAN CEDES ON VOTE SECRECY - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (U) Responding to the PLC's internal discontent, Aleman ceded a bit on March 19, agreeing that the March 31 mini-conventions will be held under secret rather than open vote. He also warned the recalcitrant pre-candidates that "one must wash dirty laundry at home." Now all pre-candidates but Noel Ramirez are back aboard and will participate. COMMENT - - - - ¶8. (C) Until recently, Quinonez was one of Aleman's cronies and a fervent supporter; he may remain so if the wind blows again in his favor. Nonetheless, the fact that Quinonez recognizes that Montealegre may be the best option to beat Ortega is significant. On the other hand, an eventual political association with Quinonez -- whose reputation as a thug willing to resort to any tactic to achieve his goals -- could more likely hurt than help, Montealegre. TRIVELLI