ARELLANO DISCUSSES DEFECTION TO ALN-PC, ELECTIONS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 000711

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KCOR SOCI NU
SUBJECT: ARELLANO DISCUSSES DEFECTION TO ALN-PC, ELECTIONS,
MCC

REF: MANAGUA 0642

Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (C) Summary: Outspoken National Assembly deputy Delia
Arellano plans to actively recruit "converts" in the
evangelical community to support presidential candidate
Eduardo Montealegre now that she has become a member of
Montealegre's ALN-PC caucus (reftel). Arellano backs a
proposal to chose a woman as the ALN-PC vice presidential
candidate, and she personally prefers former Tourism
Institute director Lucia Salazar for the position. She
predicts that Francisco Aguirre Sacasa will emerge as the PLC
presidential candidate and has encouraged independent deputy
Jaime Morales Carazo to pursue the FSLN vice presidential
nomination. Arellano is also concerned that FSLN mayors in
Leon are taking credit for MCC programs to support political
goals. End Summary.

THE "RIGHT TIME" TO JOIN EDUARDO
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2. (C) Pol Counselor and poloff met with National Assembly
deputy Delia Arellano on March 24 to discuss her move from
the Camino Cristiano (CCN) bancada to the ALN-PC. Arellano,
who previously told poloffs on several occasions that she
intended to defect to Eduardo Montealegre,s bancada,
explained that she had to wait for the "right time" to
announce her move so she would not look like an opportunist
betraying the CCN. This opportunity came, she said, when CCN
leader Rev. Guillermo Osorno made apparent his intentions to
seek an alliance with the PLC and implied that he may vote in
favor of an amnesty for convicted PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman.
Arellano stated that such a posture is contrary to her
Christian beliefs, and one that she can not support.
(Comment: For some time, Delia has been uncomfortable
following Osorno, disparagingly named "Reverend Soborno
(bribe)" by some. She enjoys a strong personal relationship
with Montealegre, and now she does not have to hide her
inclinations. End Comment.)


3. (C) Arellano was very enthusiastic in her support for
Montealegre and raved about his performance before a March 23
COSEP panel. (Note: Other contacts were similarly laudatory
towards Montealegre. Nelson Estrada, the panel,s moderator,
only criticized Montealegre for supporting the 6% set-aside
in the national budget for universities, which is part of the
Sandinista platform to assure loyalty from university
students and professors -- at the expense of primary
education and other priorities. End Note.) She claimed that
Montealegre is making considerable headway with women and
youth. Arellano reported that she is encouraging Montealegre
to select a female vice presidential running mate. Of the
leading candidates, Delia prefers former Tourism Institute
director Lucia Salazar, a "friendly and dynamic" woman, to
Cristiana Chamorro, who she described as "cold and distant."
Other possibilities include Azalia Aviles, Maria Cecilia
Castellon, Jamileth Bonilla, Vivian Pellas, and Arellano
herself.


4. (C) Arellano claimed that she is actively recruiting
evangelicals for Montealegre. She remarked that some have
expressed concern that they would have to become "Liberals"
and abandon their political connection to the CCN, but
Arellano explained that they can join the "Vamos con Eduardo"
movement, which is not a political party and encompasses
members from many different political ideologies. Arellano
favors holding multi-party primaries to unite the democratic
forces that would include CCN deputy candidates. Delia was
receptive to making violence against women a campaign issue,
noting the low penalties for statutory rape among 14-16 year
olds proposed in the new Criminal Code and Nicaragua's high
prevalence of domestic violence.

DELIA'S PLC AND FSLN CANDIDATE PREDICTIONS
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5. (C) Delia also commented on possible PLC and FSLN
candidates. She mentioned that independent deputy Jaime
Morales told her that he will be Daniel Ortega,s running
mate. Arellano deliberately encouraged his ambitions,
confiding to poloffs that Morales is known as "The
Inquisitor" to many evangelicals for trying to impose laws
that would restrict their worship services, and predicting
his candidacy would alienate many evangelicals. Regarding
the upcoming PLC primary, Arellano opined that Francisco

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Aguirre Sacasa will become the PLC,s presidential candidate,
though did not elaborate on why Aguirre Sacasa would win the
primaries.

EVANGELICALS CLAIM SANDINISTAS TAKING CREDIT FOR MCC PROGRAMS
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6. (C) Arellano voiced concern that the Sandinistas are
exploiting the MCC to advance their own campaigns in Leon,
citing the fact that an evangelical pastor was recruited to
join the Sandinistas with promises of funds for programs that
will benefit the community. Delia claimed that these
programs are MCC-related but the Sandinistas are not selling
them as such, taking the credit for them.


7. (C) Comment: Post occasionally receives hearsay comments
of this type from various contacts. MCC Director has met
with different groups on several occasions to dispel rumors
regarding the management of MCC funds, clarifying that local
mayors have very limited influence over the management and
distribution of funds. Disbursement and procurement for the
program will be managed by an international private sector
firm. Arellano is willing to facilitate a similar meeting
with the evangelical pastors from Leon.


8. (C) Comment continued: While the risk always exists that
local leaders of any political affiliation may attempt to
exploit USG assistance for their own ends, post notes that
mayors in Leon and Chinandega have, by and large, been a
positive factor in the development of the MCC program.
Specifically, many Sandinista mayors appear to have changed
their outlook towards USG activities in the region and
lobbied the FSLN's national leadership not to interfere with,
or politicize, MCC activities.
TRIVELLI