ARELLANO DISCUSSES DEFECTION TO ALN-PC, ELECTIONS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 000711 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM KCOR SOCI NU SUBJECT: ARELLANO DISCUSSES DEFECTION TO ALN-PC, ELECTIONS, MCC REF: MANAGUA 0642 Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Outspoken National Assembly deputy Delia Arellano plans to actively recruit "converts" in the evangelical community to support presidential candidate Eduardo Montealegre now that she has become a member of Montealegre's ALN-PC caucus (reftel). Arellano backs a proposal to chose a woman as the ALN-PC vice presidential candidate, and she personally prefers former Tourism Institute director Lucia Salazar for the position. She predicts that Francisco Aguirre Sacasa will emerge as the PLC presidential candidate and has encouraged independent deputy Jaime Morales Carazo to pursue the FSLN vice presidential nomination. Arellano is also concerned that FSLN mayors in Leon are taking credit for MCC programs to support political goals. End Summary. THE "RIGHT TIME" TO JOIN EDUARDO - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) Pol Counselor and poloff met with National Assembly deputy Delia Arellano on March 24 to discuss her move from the Camino Cristiano (CCN) bancada to the ALN-PC. Arellano, who previously told poloffs on several occasions that she intended to defect to Eduardo Montealegre,s bancada, explained that she had to wait for the "right time" to announce her move so she would not look like an opportunist betraying the CCN. This opportunity came, she said, when CCN leader Rev. Guillermo Osorno made apparent his intentions to seek an alliance with the PLC and implied that he may vote in favor of an amnesty for convicted PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman. Arellano stated that such a posture is contrary to her Christian beliefs, and one that she can not support. (Comment: For some time, Delia has been uncomfortable following Osorno, disparagingly named "Reverend Soborno (bribe)" by some. She enjoys a strong personal relationship with Montealegre, and now she does not have to hide her inclinations. End Comment.) ¶3. (C) Arellano was very enthusiastic in her support for Montealegre and raved about his performance before a March 23 COSEP panel. (Note: Other contacts were similarly laudatory towards Montealegre. Nelson Estrada, the panel,s moderator, only criticized Montealegre for supporting the 6% set-aside in the national budget for universities, which is part of the 
Sandinista platform to assure loyalty from university students and professors -- at the expense of primary education and other priorities. End Note.) She claimed that Montealegre is making considerable headway with women and youth. Arellano reported that she is encouraging Montealegre to select a female vice presidential running mate. Of the leading candidates, Delia prefers former Tourism Institute director Lucia Salazar, a "friendly and dynamic" woman, to Cristiana Chamorro, who she described as "cold and distant." Other possibilities include Azalia Aviles, Maria Cecilia Castellon, Jamileth Bonilla, Vivian Pellas, and Arellano herself. ¶4. (C) Arellano claimed that she is actively recruiting evangelicals for Montealegre. She remarked that some have expressed concern that they would have to become "Liberals" and abandon their political connection to the CCN, but Arellano explained that they can join the "Vamos con Eduardo" movement, which is not a political party and encompasses members from many different political ideologies. Arellano favors holding multi-party primaries to unite the democratic forces that would include CCN deputy candidates. Delia was receptive to making violence against women a campaign issue, noting the low penalties for statutory rape among 14-16 year olds proposed in the new Criminal Code and Nicaragua's high prevalence of domestic violence. DELIA'S PLC AND FSLN CANDIDATE PREDICTIONS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) Delia also commented on possible PLC and FSLN candidates. She mentioned that independent deputy Jaime Morales told her that he will be Daniel Ortega,s running mate. Arellano deliberately encouraged his ambitions, confiding to poloffs that Morales is known as "The Inquisitor" to many evangelicals for trying to impose laws that would restrict their worship services, and predicting his candidacy would alienate many evangelicals. Regarding the upcoming PLC primary, Arellano opined that Francisco MANAGUA 00000711 002 OF 002 Aguirre Sacasa will become the PLC,s presidential candidate, though did not elaborate on why Aguirre Sacasa would win the primaries. EVANGELICALS CLAIM SANDINISTAS TAKING CREDIT FOR MCC PROGRAMS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) Arellano voiced concern that the Sandinistas are exploiting the MCC to advance their own campaigns in Leon, citing the fact that an evangelical pastor was recruited to join the Sandinistas with promises of funds for programs that will benefit the community. Delia claimed that these programs are MCC-related but the Sandinistas are not selling them as such, taking the credit for them. ¶7. (C) Comment: Post occasionally receives hearsay comments of this type from various contacts. MCC Director has met with different groups on several occasions to dispel rumors regarding the management of MCC funds, clarifying that local mayors have very limited influence over the management and distribution of funds. Disbursement and procurement for the program will be managed by an international private sector firm. Arellano is willing to facilitate a similar meeting with the evangelical pastors from Leon. ¶8. (C) Comment continued: While the risk always exists that local leaders of any political affiliation may attempt to exploit USG assistance for their own ends, post notes that mayors in Leon and Chinandega have, by and large, been a positive factor in the development of the MCC program. Specifically, many Sandinista mayors appear to have changed their outlook towards USG activities in the region and lobbied the FSLN's national leadership not to interfere with, or politicize, MCC activities. TRIVELLI