TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT: USING PRIMARIES TO DEFINE

UNCLAS MANAGUA 000709 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV EAID KDEM NU SUBJECT: TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT: USING PRIMARIES TO DEFINE LIBERAL INTENTIONS REF: A. MANAGUA 0674 ¶B. MANAGUA 0666 ¶C. MANAGUA 0008 ¶1. (SBU) For the past year, Nicaragua's Liberal factions have toyed with the idea of holding internal and/or multi-party primaries to select their presidential and National Assembly deputy candidates. Faction leaders generally agree that multi-party primaries are the most feasible and democratic way to unite the "democratic forces" -- a goal they all profess to want. Nevertheless, attempts to craft a primary proposal acceptable to all factions have been received without great enthusiasm -- especially on the part of the PLC, which has heretofore refused to include deputy candidates. The Liberals and other anti-Sandinista parties have come to us directly, or through IRI, to request assistance with primaries. Our response has been clear: we are willing provide assistance, but only within certain parameters. ¶2. (SBU) Our current proposal for multi-party primaries, which we plan to transmit to party leaders immediately after the April 2 PLC convention, is a synthesis of various plans issued by the Liberal factions and includes the fundamental conditions to promote a democratic process and minimize the influence of Arnoldo Aleman. The civil society group Movimiento por Nicaragua (MpN) would, with technical assistance and a grant of up to $500,000 from IRI, implement the proposal under the following conditions: - All participating parties and alliances will agree in advance to the selection, via primaries, of a joint presidential candidate and a joint slate of departmental deputy candidates. - Each party or alliance will appoint two representatives to serve on a primary oversight committee, which will make decisions by consensus. Meetings will be held in a neutral location. Experts, contracted to organize the process, will provide technical assistance. - The deadline to accept the proposal is April 17. Keeping in mind the Electoral Calendar, the oversight committee will decide on which date to hold the primaries. - Domestic and international observers will be invited to monitor and observe the primary process. ¶3. (SBU) Comment: The democratic contenders have failed thus far to agree on a joint proposal because none wishes to expend time and effort in holding primaries, and party leaders would rather grant deputy candidacies to powerful supporters than open the positions to competition. However, most do want to achieve the unification of the anti-FSLN forces and have pleaded with Emboffs time and again to help them achieve this goal. The pressures of the Electoral Calendar (Ref B) demand a final decision and action (or not) on primaries -- hence the ultimatum and deadline. Time is running out. ¶4. (SBU) Comment continued: The probability of PLC acceptance of the proposal is low -- Aleman's control of the party would be severely undermined if he could no longer name the departmental deputy candidates. Jose Rizo, the front-runner for the PLC nomination has, however, supported primaries in past statements. Offering primaries to Rizo may pressure him to define himself to the public, who we will then know if he is truly independent from Aleman, or merely his puppet. If the PLC's national leaders refuse the democratic path to unity offered by the proposal in deference to Aleman, Eduardo Montealegre and other dissidents may gain considerable leverage to pressure local PLC leaders and supporters to finally abandon the party. TRIVELLI