NICARAGUA ATLANTIC COAST ELECTIONS: PLC SUPREME IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000556 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM SNAR SOCI NU SUBJECT: NICARAGUA ATLANTIC COAST ELECTIONS: PLC SUPREME IN RAAS, YATAMA KINGMAKER IN RAAN REF: A. MANAGUA 0511 ¶B. 05 MANAGUA 2998 Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Preliminary results for the allocation of seats on the Councils of the South Atlantic Autonomous Region (RAAS) and North Atlantic Autonomous Region (RAAN) indicate that the PLC will win enough positions to control the RAAS without having to form an alliance with another party. In the RAAN, however, none of the parties will gain an outright majority. FSLN officials claim they will control the RAAN Council with regional indigenous party Yatama, although the PLC has announced its intention to court Yatama as well. Disturbingly, Vice Foreign Minister Javier Williams Slate told the DCM that FSLN leader Daniel Ortega made a deal to assist narcotraffickers on the Atlantic Coast if they would help the FSLN win the elections. End Summary. VOTE ALLOCATION SYSTEM FAVORS FSLN AND YATAMA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (U) As reported in reftel A, the multi-member district proportional representation system allocated a disproportionate number of seats to the FSLN and Yatama than the overall popular vote would indicate. The following chart shows the final vote count and the distribution of Council seats by party. North Atlantic Autonomous Region (RAAN): PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE COUNCIL SEATS PLC 23,783 37.4% 16 FSLN 19,212 30.2% 17 Yatama 12,330 19.2% 12 ALN-PC 3,414 5.4% 0 MRS 1,441 2.3% 0 PAMUC 1.316 2.1% 0 APRE 1,268 2.0% 0 CCN 830 1.3% 0 South Atlantic Autonomous Region (RAAS): PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE COUNCIL SEATS PLC 17,577 47.8% 22 FSLN 7,690 20.9% 11 ALN-PC 5,643 15.4% 6 Yatama 3,561 9.7% 6 MRS 1,373 3.7% 0 CCN 685 1.9% 0 APRE 229 0.6% 0 PAMUC N/A N/A N/A Although a few "impugnaciones" (official challenges from party poll watchers) remain outstanding, the CSE reported that they would not affect the final results. CSE president Roberto Rivas announced that the Council would proclaim the winning candidates on March 14. ; PLC AND FSLN WILL FIGHT FOR YATAMA VOTES IN THE RAAN - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (U) The PLC won enough seats in the RAAS to control the Regional Council without needing to form an alliance with the ALN-PC. The FSLN proclaimed that they would lead the Council in the RAAN in alliance with Yatama, an indigenous party that promotes autonomy. Diogenes Solorzano, the legal representative for Yatama, confirmed that his party signed an &alliance of governability8 with the FSLN that promises the governorship to Yatama. PLC representatives indicated, however, that their party would also court Yatama in an attempt to control the RAAN Regional Council by also offering the RAAN governorship and possibly some positions in the RAAS. ORTEGA MAKES DEAL WITH NARCOTRAFFICKERS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) On March 10, Vice Foreign Minister and RAAN native Javier Williams Slate informed DCM that FSLN leader Daniel Ortega made a deal with local narcotraffickers, which would allow the traffickers free reign in the region in exchange for political and financial support. According to Williams, a Regional Council member by the name of Dereta brokered an agreement whereby Ortega would use the FSLN's influence in the court system to free a couple of traffickers from jail. One is Jorge Webster Rojas (arrested on Corn Island last year) and the other is Marvin Funez (arrested in Sandy Bay). ¶5. (C) Williams spent most of election week at his family's house in Puerto Cabezas, where he witnessed the alliance in action. From his house on the beach, he could see the traffickers using their new SUVs and pickup trucks to transport FSLN voters and election workers around town. (Comment: This is not the first time we have heard reports of FSLN/narco cooperation -- see reftel B. End Comment.) COMMENT: REST OF COUNTRY WILL "FORGET ATLANTIC COAST ELECTIONS IN TWO MONTHS" - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) Normally a forgotten stepchild, the Atlantic Coast has received intense national attention for the last several weeks as all parties have sought to position themselves for the November national elections. The PLC, FSLN, Yatama, and the ALN-PC have all spun the results positively, leaving only Herty Lewites (MRS candidate) to admit that the outcome was not what he had hoped for. Liberal candidate Jose Antonio Alvarado, although he spent relatively little time and energy on the Coast, appeared to lose some steam as the party he is most closely associated with (APRE) performed very poorly. But do the Atlantic Coast elections really presage November results? Most Nicaraguans agree that the Atlantic Coast -- given its isolation, ideological slant, small population, and ethnic differences -- is unique, and therefore, the choices of its population cannot be accurately extrapolated on a national level. One high-level contact in the Presidency told poloff that, despite the current hype, Nicaraguans will "forget the Atlantic Coast elections in two months." TRIVELLI