A RUSE -- OR DO GENUINE CONCERNS DRIVE PLC'S CALL

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000464 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2016 TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL KCOR SUBJECT: A RUSE -- OR DO GENUINE CONCERNS DRIVE PLC'S CALL FOR CSE RESIGNATIONS? REF: A. MANAGUA 0430 ¶B. MANAGUA 0304 ¶C. 2005 MANAGUA 03118 Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). ¶1. (C) Many Nicaraguan political and civil society leaders are calling for the resignation of all Supreme Electoral Commission (CSE) magistrates. Asserting that the CSE's substantial irregularities and clear domination by Daniel Ortega's Sandinista (FSLN) party will cause the March 5 Atlantic Coast election to be flawed, these leaders argue that the resignation of the CSE board is the only means to ensure a clean, fair, credible, and inclusive national election in November. Visibly absent from this clamor is Liberal dissident Eduardo Montealegre, who suspects that the Liberal Constitutional Party's (PLC) call for the resignations may be PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman's ploy to regain political leverage. The Nicaraguan government (GON) shares Montealegre's assessment, believing that in all likelihood a new CSE board would be as partisan and unprofessional as the current one; rather, the pressure should be directed at the current board to do its job. The appointment of new CSE magistrates would require a vote by 2/3 of the National Assembly deputies. Both PLC and Sandinista votes would be needed for such a vote, a process that could reinforce the Ortega-Aleman pact, and perhaps lead to Aleman's amnesty. End Summary. ¶2. (U) Many political and civil society leaders are calling for the resignation of all CSE magistrates. Asserting that the CSE's substantial irregularities and clear domination by Daniel Ortega's Sandinista (FSLN) party will cause the March 5 Atlantic Coast election to be flawed and fraud ridden, these leaders argue that the resignation of the magistrates is the only means to ensure a clean, fair, credible, and inclusive national election in November. Right-of-center daily La Prensa called for the CSE leadership to step down in its February 28 edition. ¶3. (U) The PLC has been especially vocal on the subject, even though three of the seven magistrates are PLC militants. PLC-affiliated CSE magistrate Rene Herrera (Ref. B) called over the February 25-26 weekend for the resignation of all CSE magistrates and their substitutes, to be effective following the March 5 Atlantic Coast elections. He suggested 
that the only solution to the CSE crisis might be a state of emergency dissolving the CSE board. Tongue in cheek, Herrera recommended that, to save the expense of a costly November election, the CSE could appoint Daniel Ortega president and Eduardo Montealegre vice president. On February 25, PLC spokesman Leonel Teller echoed Herrera's sentiments, adding that the new magistrates should be selected via the National Dialogue mechanism established in October 2005 as part of the Framework Law (Ley Marco) to restore governability. ¶4. (C) Comment: Driving the PLC's outrage over the CSE's current state of play is the fact that the party no longer enjoys the upper hand in the electoral body. The PLC is particularly capable of "crying foul" because in the past, it employed many of the same tactics to consolidate its political position. Former PLC member Eduardo Urcuyo recently shared with us that the PLC used to back date birth certificates of young Nicaraguans so they could vote for the PLC, a practice they now accuse the Sandinistas of doing. An unabashed Urcuyo explained that "we did this for the sake of democracy." End Comment. ¶5. (U) Other political parties have joined the clamor for a complete makeover in CSE leadership, including Camino Cristiano National Assembly substitute deputy Oscar Carrion. FSLN dissident Herty Lewites has also called for the CSE magistrates to resign and stated publicly that he and his supporters will join a March 2 civil society protest calling for the magistrates to step down. While the Alianza por la Republica (APRE) has not yet reached an official position on the matter, on February 28, APRE president Miguel Lopez Baldizon shared his personal view with polcouns that ideally all the magistrates should resign, but they will not. He added the caveat that a mass resignation could place the electoral process in limbo and aggravate the crisis because the Assembly could take months to decide on replacements. While the ALN-PC has so far been reserved in its position, ALN-PC deputy Alfonso Ortega Urbina also hinted to the press that he would not oppose the measure if it served to improve the situation in Nicaragua. ¶6. (U) A number of civil society groups are also calling for the CSE magistrates to step down. On February 23, Movimiento por Nicaragua (MpN) member/former CSE magistrate, Rosa Maria Zelaya opined that the CSE magistrates must resign if they are incapable of organizing elections. On February 24, Etica y Transparencia (ET) director Roberto Courtney appealed to CSE magistrates to resign their posts following the March 5 Atlantic Coast election because the CSE leadership has have lost all credibility. A coalition comprising the Red por Nicaragua (NGO umbrella),COSEP, and Movimiento de Mujeres joined the chorus, with Red por Nicaragua and the MpN, announcing they will demonstrate in front of the CSE on March ¶2. ¶7. (C) Although visibly absent from the clamor so far, Liberal dissident/ALN-PC presidential candidate Eduardo Montealegre -- who suspects that the PLC's call for all magistrates to resign may be part of PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman's ruse to restore some of his political leverage -- told DCM March 1 that he and his group favor continued pressure on the CSE, even though he doubted that any magistrates would in fact resign. The resignation of the magistrates would prompt a vote by 2/3 (56 votes) of the National Assembly deputies to replace them, which would require both PLC and Sandinista votes to accomplish and could lead to a bolstering of the Ortega-Aleman pact, perhaps according Aleman the opportunity to swap more seats for the FSLN on the CSE for his amnesty. ¶8. (C) ALN-PC legal adviser Eliseo Nunez alleged to the media on February 28 that to establish the CSE's required quorum, PLC magistrates resorted in 2001 to the same trick of appointing their own substitutes to fill in for recalcitrant Sandinista magistrates boycotting the sessions. Referring to the PLC-led challenge to the Supreme Court ruling in favor of CSE president Rivas' appointment of Sandinista and Conservative substitutes to fill in for the absent PLC magistrates, Nunez asserted that the problem lies in the politicization of the CSE, not in the interpretation of an article (Ref. A) of the Electoral Law . (Note: Montealegre and ALN-PC caucus leader Maria Eugenia Sequeira told us March 1 that the ALN-PC will support the new bill, but on the condition that the PLC magistrates do their jobs.) ¶9. (C) President Bolanos' senior political adviser Frank Arana echoed Montealegre's position, telling polcouns on March 1 that Bolanos is skeptical of the PLC's insistence on replacing the CSE magistrates and suspects it is a ploy to renew the Ortega-Aleman pact to help the PLC regain political leverage vis a vis the Sandinistas to achieve Aleman's amnesty. Arana voiced concern that civil society demands for a new CSE board could backfire and divert attention from real issues. If the magistrates step down, which Arana doubts, a Sandinista-PLC accord would be required to select the new CSE board; they would likely select the same sort of conniving, partisan lot, opined Arana. Instead, civil society should pressure the current magistrates to do their jobs. ¶10. (C) Predictably, the CSE's Sandinista magistrates and pro-Sandinista president Roberto Rivas have refused to resign, while daring their PLC counterparts to step down. FSLN Assembly caucus chair Edwin Castro dismissed the attacks on the CSE, asserting that if nobody protested the CSE in past national elections, they have no reason to do so now. He accused the PLC and its allies of creating the scandal because they are trying to justify their defeat in the Atlantic Coast election in advance. Sandinista presidential candidate Daniel Ortega blames the U.S.G.'s "anti-democratic meddling" for driving the political and civil society movement calling for the resignation of the CSE board. In a February 27 communique, Ortega warns that the U.S. and the Nicaraguan right will fail in their efforts to derail the March and November elections, asserting the Sandinistas will emerge as the victors in both contests. (Comment: Ortega's Left-Right rhetoric rings hollow, especially in light of Herty Lewites' new-Left, Sandinista-light candidacy -- and his seeking the Ambassador's assistance regarding the CSE's recent removal of a number of his candidates running for the Atlantic Coast election (while some Herty candidates rejoined Ortega, others did not). End Comment.) Chief Civil Servant: "The CSE is a Giant Mess" - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶11. (C) On February 28, CSE head civil servant Rodrigo Barreto (Ref. C) expressed his exasperation with the CSE magistrates' antics to poloff, calling the situation a "giant mess." He agreed in principle with civil society groups calling on the magistrates to resign, but claimed that the selection of new magistrates would inevitably be "more of the same" - political hacks chosen by Aleman and Ortega. Barreto noted that, legally, the magistrates cannot be forced out or impeached - not even by reason of insanity. They must voluntarily resign. Personally, Barreto is growing increasingly frustrated and would readily resign, along with several other senior staff, if he could afford to do so. Comment - - - - ¶12. (C) There are justifications for calling for the resignation of the CSE board, but the GON's and Montealegre's concerns over this PLC-led initiative are also valid. One can argue that if all the magistrates were to resign -- for now highly unlikely -- civil society and political forces could pressure the Assembly to accept truly non-partisan, capable replacements who reflect the diversity of Nicaragua's political landscape. Another possible outcome, however, is the Ortega-Aleman pact would replace the CSE magistrates with more of the same, or a long drawn-out impasse would leave the CSE leaderless for months, endangering the November election. President Bolanos has publicly stated that he will scrutinize the Atlantic Coast electoral process and the CSE's preparations for the November election, and if need be, he will declare a state of emergency in accordance with his legal authority to ensure that a fair and transparent election occurs as scheduled in November. In our view, our job, and that of the OAS and the rest of the international community, is to encourage Nicaraguans to advocate for their rights and pressure the CSE to perform professionally and without partisan bias. TRIVELLI