ASSEMBLY PRESIDENT GOMEZ ADVANCES CONSTRUCTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000301

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN, USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/OLAC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2016
TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL KCOR ETRD ECON EFIN
SUBJECT: ASSEMBLY PRESIDENT GOMEZ ADVANCES CONSTRUCTIVE
WORKING RELATIONS WITH EMBASSY


Classified By: DCM Peter M. Brennan. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In the spirit of his commitment to
maintain a close working relationship with Embassy on
legislation, National Assembly President Eduardo Gomez (Ref.)
recently met with emboffs to discuss legislative priorities
and how best to expedite them. The Embassy's priorities --
MANPADS destruction; passage of economic legislation required
for CAFTA implementation; and, the draft criminal code --
coincide in large part with Gomez' interests. Gomez expects
discussion and a vote on MANPADS destruction within the next
three weeks. He has offered to do whatever in his power to
expedite passage of legislation required for CAFTA-DR
implementation and to place the criminal code on the
Assembly's front burner. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) In the spirit of his commitment to maintain a close
working relationship with Embassy on legislation, National
Assembly President Eduardo Gomez (Ref.) met on February 6
with Econ Counselor , RLA, and Pol Counselor to discuss
legislative priorities and how best to expedite them.
Assembly Foreign Affairs chair Miguel Lopez joined the
meeting along with Assembly legal adviser Reynaldo Molina.
Embassy priorities -- MANPADS destruction, passage of
economic legislation required for CAFTA implementation, and
the draft criminal code -- coincided in large part with
Gomez' interests.

Advancing MANPADS Destruction
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3. (SBU) Gomez advised that MANPADS destruction and a
revision to the Defense law returning to the Executive the
authority to destroy MANPADS and similar weapons is on the
top of the Assembly's agenda and will be discussed and likely
voted on during the first two weeks the Assembly is in
plenary (starting February 13). To our proposal that the
Assembly vote to destroy all 1,051 MANPADS rather than only
the lot of 651 missiles, Gomez replied that he was unaware of
this proposal but would consider it. Pol Counselor noted
that President Bolanos' senior advisors appear to support the
initiative and that Embassy has also raised it with MOD
Ramirez and the Chief of the Military Halleslevens, the
latter who wishes to travel to Washington in April and who is
aware that MANPADS destruction will make his trip much more
productive.

Assembly President - Criminal Code A Key Agenda Item
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4. (SBU) On the subject of criminal justice reform, emboffs
discussed with Gomez, Lopez, and Molina pending and proposed
legislation, concerning the: 1) enactment of the proposed
criminal code; 2) amendment of the current controversial
money laundering law; 3) enactment of legislation to provide
for the proper administration of seized property, both real
and personal property; 4) awarding more authority and
autonomy to the Procurador General (or PGR, the Attorney
General Novoa's office); 5) creation of a Financial
Intelligence Unit (FIU); 6) affording legal protection to the
Superintendent of Banks; 7) replacement of Fiscal General
Centeno Gomez upon the expiration of his term in July 2006;
and, 8) the need to reform the judiciary.


5. (SBU) Gomez shared that the Assembly will discuss the
draft criminal code every Thursday and he welcomed Embassy
input. In response to our concern that trafficking in
persons (TIP) legislation included in the reform bill is
unlikely to pass before the deadline for Embassy submission
of the annual TIP report, Lopez suggested that, in the
meantime, the current criminal code could be amended to
include the reform language. Post will follow up on this
offer.


6. (SBU) Lopez acknowledged the intense political
repercussions (the Aleman effect) of money laundering
legislation reform. He favors an expansive money laundering
law that does not enumerate the possible predicate offenses
to cover a host of illegal activities as a basis for
prosecution. Lopez was more lukewarm on the law for the
administration of seized property, but he recognized the need
to remove the judiciary from that business.


7. (SBU) Lopez supported amending the code of criminal

procedure to return much-needed autonomy to the PGR so that
they can act independently in the investigation and
prosecution of criminal offenses. (Note: The PGR is the real
paladin in the fight against corruption in Nicaragua. After
the code of Dec. 2002, the PGR serves only in the capacity of
a solicitor general and its jurisdiction is limited to those
cases where the state is a victim and the Ministerio Publico
has either refused to act or specifically requested the PGR's
assistance in a particular matter. This is cumbersome at
best, impossible at worst and manifests itself as political
obstructionism by legal fiat as evidence in the Huaca II case
(the second Aleman case).) Lopez also noted that the
Assembly must tackle the naming of the Fiscal General when
Centeno Gomez' term expires this summer. He expects the post
to be vacant while political consensus for an acceptable
replacement is built and predicts it will be utilized as a
maneuver to run out
the clock on the Huaca II's Oct 2006 statute of limitations.



8. (SBU) Gomez and Lopez agreed over the need to create an
independent and non-politicized financial intelligence unit
(FIU) with its own budget, to support the police and law
enforcement in handling their increasing number of financial
investigation. Emboffs discussed the current Ponzi scheme
case of Agave Azul as an example of an investigation that
would be furthered by the creation of this specialized unit.
We mentioned that currently there are several proposals to
create a FIU before the several Assembly committees. Lopez
Baldizon referred to the apportionment of legislation among
various committees as "legislative organized crime" since it
guaranteed a certain death and burial of that piece of
legislation. The legislator also embraced our suggestion of
affording legal protection for the Superintendent of Banks
for his acts or omissions during the course of the
performance of his official duties. He promised to
reintroduce a law to this effect in the near future.


9. (SBU) Lopez Baldizon endorsed holding a constitutional
convention to amend the constitution to, among other things,
restructure the judicial system. He promised that if he is
in a political position following this year's national
election, he will work on convening such a convention.

GON Legislative Strategy for CAFTA-DR Reforms
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10. (SBU) Gomez and Lopez consider the passage of
legislation required for CAFTA-DR implementation a top
priority. Econ Counselor informed them of the time
constraints involved if Nicaragua is to join El Salvador for
a March 1 Entry in Force, urging them to work with the
Executive to pass the needed legislative package (changes in
IPR legislation and strengthened anti-corruption penalties)
under emergency procedures by February 16. As of the
meeting, however, the Executive had yet to send the draft
legislation officially to the Assembly, or discuss procedures
with the President, though Gomez said he understood the GON
was consulting with the political parties. Indeed, two weeks
previously, the Executive had told Lopez that the CAFTA
legislation, like the Executive's proposed reforms to the tax
code, was not yet ready to be sent to the Assembly. Econ
counselor explained that because the legislation was intended
to implement commitments made during the course of the
negotiations, it was important that all parties agree that
the proposed legislation did indeed fulfill those commitments
before it was submitted to the Assembly; however, this
agreement was now achieved and if Nicaragua did not want El
Salvador to be the only country to enter CAFTA in the first
group, it would be necessary to act quickly.


11. (SBU) During the February 7 closing of a two-day forum
on CAFTA-DR implementation sponsored by INCAE and the
Ministry of Trade(MIFIC),Trade Minister Alejandro Arguello
expressed continuing optimism about passage of the CAFTA-DR
legislative reforms before February 16, despite the fact that
only two legislative days - February 14 and 15 - remain
before the deadline. It became clear during the discussion
that Arguello had been entirely sidelined from the
legislative strategy concerning the CAFTA-DR reforms, such
that he had spent most of the two preceding days at the CAFTA
forum, to which 10 deputies had confirmed their
participation, but only Sandinista Bayardo Arce appeared
briefly to argue the merits of a proposed development bank.

Arguello admitted that Secretary of the Presidency Leonardo
Somarriba and Presidential Advisor Frank Arana were managing
a legislative strategy headed by Minister of Finance Mario
Arana and aimed at achieving political consensus through the
National Dialogue process. He admitted that he had not been
consulted. Arguello also asked for Embassy intercession to
encourage National Assembly party leaders to meet with him,
as they had yet to return his calls requesting meetings. In
a separate conversation with Econoff, Nicaraguan Chamber of
Commerce President Jase Adan Aguire threw up his hands in
exasperation when queried about the wisdom of running the
CAFTA reforms through the National Dialugue.


12. (SBU) Econoff called Luis Alejandro Matus, Chief of
Staff to Mario Arana, on the evening of February 7, to
determine if a head-counting exercise of pro-CAFTA forces was
running parallel to a more inclusive process of political
consensus through the National Dialogue. Matus offered that
Arana had met with four liberal deputies earlier in the day,
including Economic Commission Chairman Wilfredo Navarro to
secure commitments on the timing of the CAFTA vote. He added
that the CAFTA emergency measure would be included in a
larger package of economic legislation, including tax code
amendments law and other IMF/World Bank priorities. Matus
reinforced Minister Arguello's message about the primacy of
the National Dialogue, acknowledging this dialogue will be
"messy", especially with transportation and medical strikes
to resolve. When pressed, Matus confessed that it will be a
"miracle" if the CAFTA reforms pass before the February 16
deadline.

Other Economic Priorities
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13. (SBU) Tax code amendments: Econ counselor pointed out
four articles in the newly-enacted tax code that, if not
revised, would drastically limit the tax authority's ability
to continue its past record of increasing tax collections and
thus leave the budget woefully under-funded. Lopez appeared
very familiar with the issue. Coastal law: Lopez said that
there was little likelihood that this controversial law -
brainchild of "missionary" San Juan del Sur deputy Geraldo
Miranda, the hero/villain of the Assembly's January election
drama - or the similarly problematic water law would be
passed this year, as their FSLN proponents did not want to
antagonize the private sector before the elections. Civil
Aviation Law: Lopez said that this law, which is a sine qua
non for any FAA upgrade of Nicaragua to Category 1, was
already on the agenda for the Assembly's session (comment:
true, but the law has been stuck halfway through its second
reading for over a year, with no noticeable progress).


14. (C) Comment: Chances are surely dimming for passage of
the required CAFTA-DR reforms before the deadline. It
appears that the reforms will get bogged down in a series of
too-clever-by-a-half political and parliamentary maneuvers.
Nicaragua's National Dialogue, a high-level group of
political leaders from the major parties which includes
Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega and the GON, has served
alternately as a means of setting national policy - generally
by resolving disputes - or of increasing political rancor and
prolonging debate. It has never been a tidy affair. There
are clear advantages to fronting the effort with Minister of
Finance Mario Arana, who led MIFIC during the CAFTA
negotiations and has Sandinista roots. He enjoys broader
political credibility than his cabinet counterparts and
command of CAFTA-DR issues. Arana can also counter any
rumblings about the package containing new or unexpected
issues by referring to his personal knowledge of the
negotiations as head of MIFIC. However, i
ncluding the reforms in a high-wire discussion about ongoing
strikes seems counterintuitive to a quick and quiet
legislative resolution.


15. (SBU) Comment, continued: The notion of including the
relatively simple CAFTA legislative fixes in a Christmas tree
legislative package of more contentious reforms also seems
wrongheaded. Sadly, the weekend evolution of the CAFTA
strategy from a head-counting exercise of pro-CAFTA forces to
a more inclusive, but complicated, process of political
consensus is likely to backfire. Bottom line: the smart but
discouraging bet is against Nicaragua entering the CAFTA-DR
agreement into force by March 1. End Comment.
TRIVELLI