FSLN FACES DIFFICULTIES DELIVERING ON CAMPAIGN

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 002673 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ENRG KDEM NU SUBJECT: FSLN FACES DIFFICULTIES DELIVERING ON CAMPAIGN PROMISES REF: A. MANAGUA 2652 AND PREVIOUS ¶B. MANAGUA 1787 Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) Foreign Affairs Secretary Samuel Santos recently admitted that the party is having difficulty reconciling its many campaign promises. Santos specifically referred to the FSLN's desperate search for a solution to Nicaragua's ongoing energy crisis and the party's stated intention to replace only 200 top officials in the government, despite a clamor for positions from the rank and file. Santos also commented on two key pieces of legislation, claiming that the reforms to the National Assembly's procedural regulations were altered for the better to require majority approval for secret votes and that the Assembly may only issue legal summons to private individuals regarding "matters of state." On the pending Freedom of Information Law, Santos reported that the FSLN fully supports the legislation and claimed the PLC is blocking implementation. End Summary. ¶2. (C) DCM, polcouns, and poloff met with the FSLN's Foreign Affairs Secretary on December 7 to discuss pending legislation of concern and our upcoming briefing with the FSLN transition team on assistance activities. Santos also mentioned the FSLN's concern with resolving the energy crisis (Ref B) and a lack of supporters (especially women) qualified for professional positions in the government. Santos repeated that the FSLN will not support amnesty for convicted ex-President and PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman. (Note: Poloff noted that Santos' appointment board contained the following entries: Ren Jing Yu (Chinese Embassy in Mexico); Paul Oquist (FSLN transition advisor); and Union Fenosa (electricity distributor). End Note.) Energy Crisis a Central Concern for the FSLN - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) Santos commented that alleviating the energy crisis and constant power outages is a top priority for the FSLN. Ortega is counting on Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez' promises to help Nicaragua with discounted fuel oil and generators to ease the problem, he explained. According to Santos, the GON and National Assembly have behaved "shamefully" by turning the energy crisis into a political football instead of working to solve the problem. He asked for any assistance the USG could provide to investigate solutions. DCM mentioned a recent USAID-sponsored study on Nicaragua's energy crisis and offered to provide a copy of the report once it had been completed. An enthusiastic Santos requested a copy as soon as possible. FSLN will not Fire the Civil/Foreign Service - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) Santos stated that the FSLN will not engage in mass firings of the Nicaraguan civil and foreign service -- "We can not afford to," he commented. He claimed that the FSLN plans to replace functionaries in only 200 key government positions. The FSLN faces a shortage of qualified personnel, Santos admitted, and many Sandinista partisans are clamoring for government positions as a reward for helping the FSLN win the elections. The party will probably not be able to fulfill its pledge of placing women in a large number of official positions as "many of the qualified women are in the National Assembly, and we won't pull them out," Santos remarked. Organic Law Reforms - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) When DCM mentioned particularly objectionable aspects of a new law reforming National Assembly procedures ("Ley Organica" - see Ref A) -- such as a provision to allow secret votes and the Assembly's new power to issue legal summons to all citizens and residents -- Santos seemed surprised. (Comment: Santos' professed ignorance was incongruent as the "Ley Organica" had been front-page news for three days. End Comment.) He responded, however, that he understood that all of the Assembly's caucuses (including the ALN) had reached consensus on the reforms. DCM commented that the public perception is that the current Assembly is handcuffing the next legislature. Santos retorted that the U.S. system includes "contempt of Congress" regulations. DCM explained that in our case the entire House or Senate must approve the resolution first, as opposed to merely the commission according to the Nicaraguan reforms. ¶6. (C) Santos later called FSLN deputy and key Ley Organica negotiator Jose Figueroa for clarification. Figueroa explained that the article on secret votes was modified to require a majority approval from the deputies, plus the consent of all caucus heads and the Assembly president (as opposed to a one-third vote of the deputies). He also commented that the Assembly's powers to summon private individuals will only apply to "matters of state." (Note: While the bill does specify "matters of state" when referring to the summoning of public officials (Article 51),it mentions only "themes of interest to the commission" when referring to private citizens of entities (Article 52). End Note.) Status of Freedom of Information Law - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (C) When DCM raised the status of the Freedom of Information Law, which has been languishing in the Assembly for months, Santos claimed the PLC is blocking implementation of the Law, which would significantly increase transparency in government operations. He noted specifically that the PLC does not like an article of the Law that would require any project using government funds to be open to public scrutiny. Regarding an aspect of the Law regulating the media, Santos explained that newspapers and other outlets that report on investigations in progress must also report if the subject is exonerated with the same level of prominence. FSLN will not Support Aleman Amnesty - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (C) DCM and polcouns noted that several of the articles originally proposed in the Ley Organica seemed designed to facilitate amnesty for Arnoldo Aleman. Santos repeated that Aleman is a convicted criminal, and the FSLN will not free him. He noted that President Bolanos mentioned the same concern during a recent meeting. "We would be burned," Santos said, and went on to comment that the issue of Aleman's amnesty is a Liberal family feud that the FSLN does not want to be involved in. ¶9. (C) Santos added that the FSLN won the elections because of the Liberal division, and the party does not want to definitively resolve Aleman's status too soon because he is still "useful" to them. DCM replied that the FSLN could help modernize Nicaragua's legal framework by definitively de-linking money laundering from narcotrafficking (an association often used by Aleman's defense team). Comment: An Impossible Situation for the FSLN - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶10. (C) The FSLN is already encountering difficulties after promising all things to all people in order to win the elections. The party has worked hard to mollify investors and the business class by claiming that the new government will not oust the civil service wholesale, respect private property, uphold democratic practices, etc. At the same time, the FSLN promised "zero unemployment," a resolution to the energy crisis, "economic justice," and more to their working class core supporters -- pledges that Santos admits the party will find challenging (or impossible) to reconcile. FSLN support for secret votes and other objectionable elements in the Organic Law reforms already calls into question the party's true commitment to an open democracy, and Ortega's inauguration has yet to take place. TRIVELLI