CONSERVATIVE PARTY PRESIDENT DELIBERATES ALLIANCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 002651 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM NU SUBJECT: CONSERVATIVE PARTY PRESIDENT DELIBERATES ALLIANCE WITH ALN, ROLE IN NATIONAL ASSEMBLY REF: MANAGUA 2059 Classified By: Charge d'affaires Peter M. Brennan. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Conservative Party (PC) president Azalia Aviles Salmeron is determined to maintain her party's affiliation with Eduardo Montealegre's Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN),but not to the detriment of the PC's role in the National Assembly. According to PC by-laws, Conservative lawmakers should establish their own caucus in the Assembly, but Aviles is reluctant to form a separate caucus if doing so would endanger the future of the ALN-PC alliance. She believes that if Montealegre is willing to name the caucus ALN-PC, instead of ALN, and if Conservative lawmakers in the alliance are given leadership roles, maintaining one caucus would be more viable. Aviles claims that some of Montealegre's advisors are misguiding him and he is not giving leaders of allied parties the respect and political space they merit. We have encouraged her to raise these concerns with Montealegre and the presidents of other ALN-allied parties and will meet with Montealegre within the next few days to impress upon him the importance of cultivating and consolidating his alliance. END SUMMARY. A MATTER OF RESPECT - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) On December 2, Conservative Party (PC) president Azalia Aviles Salmeron conveyed to polcouns her growing frustration over the "negative" influence of certain advisors of ALN leader/former presidential candidate Eduardo Montealegre. According to Aviles, Eliseo Nunez, Jr. and Sr., along with Mauricio Montealegre, have built a "wall" around Eduardo Montealegre, making access to him difficult for her and for most of the other presidents of ALN-allied parties. As a case in point, she mentioned that Eduardo Montealegre recently visited PC headquarters in Granada as part of his post-election recognition of departmental support. However, while PC Assembly deputies were invited to the event, the ALN did not invite Aviles, who attended anyway. ¶3. (C) Following the Granada incident, Aviles met with Montealegre and conveyed her concern that the ALN is not respecting the lines of communication and her role as Conservative party president. She related that Montealegre was receptive and reminded her that he has told alliance �0A;party leaders that the consolidation of the ALN depends in large part on the strength of its member parties. Aviles acknowledged that part of the problem lies within the Conservatives themselves, sharing that Montealegre's PC-associated running mate Fabricio Cajina had let his position "get to his head" and Cajina had tried to assume leadership of the party when he does not have the authority. THE GOOD OF NICARAGUA OUR FIRST COMMITMENT - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - ¶4. (C) Despite her frustration with the ALN leadership, Aviles insisted she does not want to form a separate caucus if doing so would endanger the future of the ALN-PC alliance. She reiterated her commitment to the alliance "for the good of Nicaragua." Nonetheless, Aviles was equally adamant that she cannot afford to allow the PC's relationship with the ALN to hurt her party's participation in the National Assembly. She explained that according to PC by-laws, Conservative lawmakers are expected to form their own caucus in the Assembly if they qualify, and they do because five Conservative deputies will join the new Assembly in January. (Note/Comment: A minimum of four deputies are required to form a caucus. By forming its own caucus, the PC would benefit from substantial administrative support and maintain its party identity. End Note/Comment.) OTHER ALN ALLIES SHARE FRUSTRATION - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) Evangelical leader/current Assembly deputy Delia Arellano, who broke with her Camino Cristiano party to support Montealegre's candidacy and was not re-elected, was also present at the meeting. Arellano said she had warned Montealegre not to place Nicaraguan Resistance Party (PRN) turncoat Salvador Talavera (Reftel) so high on his slate of Assembly candidates (third) because he was not trustworthy; now Talavera would vote with the FSLN bloc in the Assembly. She also lamented the fact that she was relegated to ninth place and thus was not re-elected. Even so, Arellano said she is determined to support Montealegre and recently met with him to present a strategy to attract more evangelicals to the ALN cause, in part as a way for the alliance to make inroads into Nicaragua's deep-rural population where many evangelists reside. According to Arellano, up to 40% of Nicaragua's population is evangelical. (Note: According to the 2005 census, 55% of Nicaraguans aged five and older are Catholic, 22% evangelical, 16% no stated religious preference, and 4% of another religion. End Note.) ¶6. (C) According to Aviles, she is not the only party leader allied with Montealegre that is frustrated over Montealegre's lack of attention to his allies' needs. Aviles related that Nicaraguan Resistance Party (PRN) leader Luis Fley (septel) and other PRN "commandantes" had shared similar frustrations and felt marginalized by the ALN "watchdogs" Nunez-Mauricio Montealegre. Further, Alliance for the Republic (APRE) President Miguel Lopez Baldizon was poised to withdraw APRE from the ALN alliance, warned Aviles. (Note: Lopez Baldizon is currently in Japan. We will meet with him upon his return. End Note.) Polcouns reiterated the need for direct communication and urged Aviles to talk with Montealegre directly. She agreed to do so and will also meet with the other disaffected party leaders to broach with Montealegre constructive ideas to strengthen the alliance. A POSSIBLE WAY FORWARD - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (C) Aviles suggested that naming the caucus ALN-PC, instead of ALN, would offer a way out of the conundrum. She added that according Conservative lawmakers in the ALN-PC caucus "leadership roles" would help, for example allowing PC deputy Javier Vallejo Fernandez (Granada) to serve as the VP of the ALN-PC caucus. To lead the joint caucus, recognizing that the presidency of the caucus should go to an ALN member, Aviles suggested that ALN deputy Luis Callejas (Chinandega) would be a suitable candidate, as he is young and a "fresh face" that would demonstrate to the public that the ALN is not merely a "PLC retread." COMMENT - - - - ¶8. (C) If the Conservative Party forms its own caucus from the get-go, the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) and the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) will likely claim that this move spells the demise of Montealegre's alliance. Further complicating the ALN's integrity is the increasing fragmentation of PRN leaders, including some who have publicly stated that the PRN's alliance with the ALN ended after the electoral period and possibly the estrangement of the APRE president. Montealegre's reliance on the Nunez family and his cousin Mauricio Montealegre has been problematic in the past, and Aviles' observations about their inordinate control over the ALN are not unique. We will meet with Eduardo Montealegre within the next few days to share these concerns and impress upon him the importance of cultivating and consolidating his alliance. BRENNAN