SIT REP 8 - NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 002546 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM NU SUBJECT: SIT REP 8 - NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS REF: MANAGUA 2537 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (U) Summary: The deadline for political parties to submit formal complaints regarding the vote count has passed. The OAS has noted some anomalies in the National Assembly race, but claims they were mostly resolved. According to an analysis of the election observation effort presented by the OAS to election donor embassies, the election, while not perfect, was adequate. Etica y Transparencia (ET) presented their final report and issued a strong statement against the "suspicious" assignment of deputy seats. End Summary. OAS notes anomalies... - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) On November 20, OAS Election Observation Mission (EOM) technical director Patricio Gajardo presented to election donor embassies the OAS,s preliminary assessment of Nicaragua's electoral process. He and two other members of the technical team will remain in country until at least 30 November, and longer if the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) has not finalized its results. He thanked representatives from donor countries for the financial support and their participation in the observation effort. ¶3. (C) Gajardo confirmed that EOM chief Gustavo Fernandez will present an oral summary before the OAS Permanent Council on November 22 and will deliver the final written report to member countries sometime in December. After the members approve the final report, it will be released, probably sometime in February, according to Gajardo. For Gajardo, the OAS final report will likely focus on three areas that require improvement: national/voter ID (cedula) process (issuance, delivery, etc.); the voter roll (padron); and, electoral law and regulations. Gajardo acknowledged that the OAS has still not received complete information from the CSE on the total number of cedulas that applicants did not retrieve before the November 5 election. He said that of 114,000 temporary voting documents, only 17,000 remained in the CSE's possession, while the CSE had reported that it still possesses 113,000 undelivered cedulas. However, the CSE has not clarified whether these are cedulas that have been in the CSE's possession for years or ones more recently issued to Nicaraguans hoping to vote in the election. ¶4. (C) OAS legal advisor Hector Garcia noted that the OAS obtained clear evidence that in Carazo department the Sandinista Liberation Front (FSLN) had systematically attempted to remove votes for the Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) and add them to the FSLN's total. The issue was resolved at the departmental level, where electoral officials rationalized the error by claiming that people were "exhausted" and had "made a mistake." Garcia added that the OAS also received reports of vote manipulation in Masaya, Matagalpa, and Managua, but had seen no evidence to back the claims. (NOTE: We had heard from MRS contacts a few weeks before the November 5 election that the FSLN planned this type of vote count manipulation. END NOTE.) Regarding vote result challenges (impugnaciones),Gajardo clarified that of the 121 impugnaciones submitted, only 16 remained pending at the CSE; the others had been resolved at the municipal or departmental level. The CSE magistrates informed the OAS that the outcomes of these 16 cases will not/not affect election results. ¶5. (C) According to Garcia, the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) and the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) submitted on November 17 their appeals to the CSE in response to the CSE's provisional results. Polcouns questioned the CSE's refusal to share the final provisional results (over 98%) of the election with the political parties (we expect the CSE gave copies to the parties that control it -- the FSLN and PLC) and observers; noting that without the information it was difficult for the parties to compare their results with the CSE's provisional tallies. Gajardo replied that the CSE had told the OAS that many of the formal vote tally sheets (actas) that arrived toward the end of the computation process were blurred, and thus could not be shared. Polcouns observed that it is incomprehensible that all of actas arriving after the CSE had released the results for 92% of the JRVs -- the remaining 8% or so -- would be blurred. Further, if they were so blurred, how could the CSE use them? She reminded the group that even a few votes here or there could affect the outcome of a departmental National Assembly seat. Gajardo promised to follow up on the matter, MANAGUA 00002546 002 OF 002 reiterating however, that the OAS can do nothing unless the parties make formal complaints. ¶6. (C) In general terms, Gajardo opined that the technical aspects of observation for the November election went well -- they were not perfect, but adequate. He suggested that setting more specific time frames for observer groups would help, noting that U.S. and Canadian assistance to the OAS allowed them to be present in Nicaragua for the March Atlantic Coast elections and remain through the November elections. Regarding coordination efforts among observers, Gajardo gave strong marks to OAS coordination with the EU, Carter Center, and other international groups, but noted that work with domestic observers was spottier. While he deemed coordination with Etica y Transparencia (ET) and IPADE to be positive, Gajardo said that coordination with Hagamos Democracia and Movimiento por Nicaragua (MpN) was less effective. Gajardo suggested that the MpN's dual role caused it difficulties. While he praised MpN's efforts to help Nicaraguans obtain birth certificates (or updated ones in many cases) as one of the best election projects of all, Gajardo remarked that the MpN's anti-PLC/FSLN pact position detracted from its other efforts. ¶7. (C) Gajardo recommended that the election donor group work with the new government, the CSE, the new legislature, and civil society to encourage improvements in the cedula process and overall civil registry; clean up the padron; and, promote electoral law and regulatory reforms that would depoliticize the electoral process. Gajardo cited what he termed "an overdose of aid" had flooded Nicaragua during the year before the November 5 election. He remarked that more sustained assistance over a period of five years would be more beneficial, adding that preparations for the 2008 municipal elections should start now. He also suggested that the UNDP, through its Central American political leadership program, work with the OAS and donors to consolidate the new political parties and groom young political leaders. ...while ET signals possible fraud - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (SBU) Etica y Transparencia issued their report November 17 on the allocation of National Assembly seats. In the report, they pointed out several "suspicious" cases. Overall, ET's number were close to those of the CSE -- 25 PLC deputy seats, 37 FSLN deputy seats, 23 ALN deputy seats and 5 MRS deputy seats. However, he stated in the press conference that ET had found discrepancies in three departmental seats -- Matagalpa, Chinandega and the RAAN. ET Executive Director Roberto Courtney stated that ET helped the ALN and MRS obtain copies of actas that the CSE would not give them. He also signaled that the delay by the CSE in publishing final deputy results is "suspicious." TRIVELLI