SIT REP 7 - NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 002537 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM NU SUBJECT: SIT REP 7 - NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS REF: MANAGUA 2531 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (U) Summary: With the deadline to submit formal complaints regarding the vote count fast approaching at midnight on November 17, the political parties are rushing to check the official numbers against the results provided by their poll watchers -- a task made especially arduous because the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) has refused to provide parties or observers with an electronic version of the results. The CSE has already admitted to major counting errors in Masaya. Movimiento por Nicaragua (MpN) criticized the slow pace of the CSE's release of results, and called on the Council to respect the will of the people when allocating National Assembly seats. Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) Presidential candidate Jose Rizo has publicly blamed the PLC-Sandinista Liberation Front (FSLN) pact for the FSLN's victory and called for a full reorganization of the PLC leadership structure, including the withdrawal of Arnoldo Aleman from political life. End Summary. CSE Refuses to Share Actas - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (SBU) The CSE released the final provisional results to the media on November 15 (reftel),giving the parties until midnight on November 17 to register any formal complaints regarding vote tallies. The parties are comparing their results (actas) with the official CSE results, but are inhibited by the CSE's refusal to release the final results electronically. The CSE previously released a DVD with over 60 percent of the actas and posted over 91 percent of the actas on its web site for only about one day before removing them. ¶3. (C) The parties have alerted local and international observer groups of the CSE's unwillingness to share the final data with them. (Comment: The CSE has also refused to release the actas to observer groups. CSE chief of staff Rodrigo Barreto told poloff that the CSE will not provide the DVDs because party poll watchers are using copies of CSE-provided actas to file complaints instead of their own original copies, which they must submit according to CSE regulations. End Comment.) CSE Admits Mistakes in Masaya - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (U) Following an ALN press conference revealing major inconsistencies in the departmental deputy vote count in Masaya (reftel),the CSE released a statement admitting the errors. Masaya Departmental Electoral Council (CED) president Thelma Espinosa explained that the results of certain municipalities had been omitted from the CED's official tally. The corrected count added thousands of votes to the totals for the ALN, FSLN and PLC, but do not appear to change the outcome of the allotment of deputy seats for Masaya. (Comment: ALN chief poll watcher Carlos Garcia informed polcouns that the final results will probably not alter the outcome for the ALN. End Comment.) MpN Criticizes Slow Pace of Results - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (U) The Movimiento por Nicaragua (MpN) released a statement on November 16 criticizing the CSE for the slow publication of vote results and the delay in defining the distribution of National Assembly seats. MpN publicly wondered why the CSE took eight days to release the final eight percent of results after counting 92 percent in the first three days. MpN encouraged the political parties to issue formal complaints regarding inaccurate or manipulated results and urged the CSE to "respect the will of the people" when deciding the final distribution of National Assembly seats. ¶6. (SBU) MpN also urged the new deputies-elect to appoint qualified candidates for the Supreme Court and National Prosecutor's office (Fiscalia). (Comment: Emboffs have been working with civil society groups to pressure the National Assembly to select qualified candidates for the governmental institutions subject to Assembly appointments. Civil society pressure resulted in the current Assembly's postponing the selection of new justices and Fiscalia officials until the newly-elected representatives can make the decision next year. End Comment.) MANAGUA 00002537 002 OF 002 Rizo Calls for Aleman's Resignation - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (U) The internal PLC power struggles heated up on November 16 when PLC Presidential candidate Jose Rizo called for PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman's withdrawal from the party. Rizo blamed Aleman for the FSLN victory, stating that the PLC should never have agreed to lower the threshold for a first round victory from 45 percent to 35 percent. He claimed that "intransigent attitudes" within the PLC drove the creation of the ALN and the defection of many PLC members to the new party. Rizo called for the "complete and total" renovation of PLC leadership. Meeting with ET and NDI - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (C) In Ambassador's November 16 meeting with National Democratic Institute (NDI) country director Deborah Ullmer and Etica y Transparencia (ET) director Roberto Courtney, they shared ET's analysis of the assignment of National Assembly deputy seats (based on 94.94% of the JRVs tallied). Courtney explained that ET's numbers coincide closely to the CSE's, except that ET results suggest that the MRS should have a sixth seat and the FSLN should have 37 seats, not 38. He acknowledged, however, that the ET count did not obtain adequate information to fully assess the results in Chinandega, Managua, Granada, Matagalpa, RAAN, and RAAS, given the closeness of the races in those departments. (Note: The PLC says it will challenge a seat in RAAN, while the ALN expects to challenge seats in Chinandega and Managua. End Note.) ¶9. (C) Courtney voiced concern that the CSE's final provisional results by JRV had not been posted on the CSE's web page. When he learned from us that the ALN and MRS had not received the diskettes with this information, he was alarmed, claiming that he had assumed the CSE had provided the parties the information when it announced the results on November 15. Courtney suggested that the parties call for an extension of the November 17 deadline for parties to submit appeals regarding the election results. He commented that observers cannot intercede on behalf of the parties unless the parties inform them of their problems; he promised to follow up with the ALN and MRS on the matter. (Note: We heard since that Courtney had talked to the ALN and MRS and offered to assist them -- including providing the ALN with a number of the 51 actas it is missing. End Note.) ALN intends to submit appeals before the midnight deadline - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶10. (C) ALN administrator Kitty Monterrey confirmed with polcouns on November 17 that she had met with Courtney and ET had provided the ALN 29 of the 51 actas the ALN was missing. She added that the ALN will submit all of its appeals before the CSE in advance of the November 17 midnight deadline. According to Monterrey, the ALN will include not only its appeals regarding Assembly seat allocations in some of the departments and on the national level, but also, its overall observations of the irregularities it has detected in the vote tally process. She will share an electronic summary of the ALN's report. Comment - - - - ¶11. (C) The CSE's refusal to provide the parties with a final electronic version of the actas has greatly impeded their ability to compare vote results. The significant inconsistencies (in Masaya, for example) and blatant attempts at manipulation (in Carazo, for example -- see reftel) suggest that the parties have ample reason to be suspicious of the official CSE results. We will continue to monitor the situation and facilitate communication between the parties and observer groups. TRIVELLI