SIT REP 5 - NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAGUA 002517 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM NU SUBJECT: SIT REP 5 - NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS REF: A. REFTEL 2491 AND PREVIOUS ¶B. REFTEL 2337 Classified By: Classified by Ambassador P. Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: ALN Deputy Yamileth Bonilla is confident the ALN will win at least 27 seats in the National Assembly which the ALN will use to influence the composition of the Assembly's executive board. The president of Bolanos' APRE party did not win an Assembly seat, but promises to help Montealegre consolidate the ALN, convert disaffected PLC deputies and mayors, and help prepare the ALN for the 2009 municipal races. The FSLN has asked President Bolanos' senior political advisor, Frank Arana, to stay in government after the January transition, an offer Arana is considering in order to provide the Sandinistas with a "voice of reason." Building on the name recognition and momentum it developed during the election, pro-democracy NGO MpN will focus on helping citizens obtain cedulas, establishing an independent national ID entity, and training future political leaders. While a power struggle threatens to divide the PLC, Montealegre is reaching out to the liberal strongholds of Matagalpa and Jinotega to consolidate support for the ALN. Recently elected MRS deputy Mario Valle abandoned the MRS to seek other alliances, leaving the MRS with only three deputies. Ortega warns representatives from rural collective organizations that he will not tolerate land seizures under his new government. END SUMMARY. ALN Assembly Deputy Certain ALN Remains in Second Place - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) According to re-elected ALN Assembly Deputy Yamileth Bonilla, the ALN remains in second place in the Presidential race, approximately 2.5 percentage points above the third-placing PLC. She told us that disputes over some of the seats continue, but estimates the ALN should gain at least 27 seats including Eduardo Montealegre,s and President Bolanos,. Bonilla noted that with the desertion of Sandinista Renovation Movement,s (MRS) Assemblyman Mario Valle to the FSLN, the MRS may lose the benefits of caucus status because it must maintain at least four members to be certified. Once the Assembly seats are resolved, the next fight will be over the composition of the Assembly executive board, which Montealegre hopes to lead, but the PLC will oppose, she said. APRE President Loses Assembly Seat, Will Support ALN, Democratic Reform - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) Over lunch on November 11, Alliance for the Republic (APRE) President/ALN National Assembly candidate Miguel Lopez Baldizon expressed disappointment that he will not win an Assembly seat. He shared with polcouns his determination to help Eduardo Montealegre consolidate the ALN, convert disaffected Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) deputies and mayors to the new party, and prepare the ALN for Nicaragua,s 2009 municipal races. Lopez Baldizon also hopes to establish a think tank to strengthen Nicaragua,s democracy and bolster the ALN,s chances to win a number of municipalities in 2009 and the presidency in 2011. Presidential Advisor Deliberates Remaining in Government - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) President Bolanos, senior political adviser, Frank Arana, may accept the FSLN,s offer to remain in government. Arana told polcouns on November 12 that the FSLN lacks expertise in running a modern, democratic presidency and has sought his help. He believes that his continuing in government would provide the Sandinistas a "voice of reason." Arana also intends to help the ALN consolidate and expand support, starting with recruiting some of the salvageable PLC lawmakers to join the ALN -- including possibly Carlos Noguera, Jorge Castillo Quant, Guillermo Osorno, Ramon Gonzalez, and Guillermo Montenegro. However, he believes Francisco Aguirre Sacasa will not leave the PLC because he aspires to assuming the presidency of the party. MpN Promises to Forge Ahead - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (SBU) In a recent meeting with the Ambassador, DCM, and poloffs, Movement for Nicaragua (MpN) promised to continue MANAGUA 00002517 002 OF 003 working towards democracy in Nicaragua, declaring "we're needed now more than ever." According to MpN's executive director, the MpN will now focus on making sure Nicaraguans can obtain cedulas (ID documents required for voting), creating a new national ID entity that is independent from the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE),and establishing a leadership institute to groom future political leaders. (NOTE/COMMENT: In the months leading up to the election, MpN gained household name recognition and established a strong network of thousands of supporters through its pro-vote, pro-democracy advocacy and its outspoken criticism of the problems related to the production and distribution of cedulas. With Eduardo Montealegre leading a strong opposition group in the Assembly and with the backing of civil society, coordinated through pro-democracy organizations like MpN, it will be much more difficult for Daniel Ortega to advance a "pro-Pact" agenda in the more pluralistic legislature. The Arnoldo Aleman-Daniel Ortega power sharing Pact has been weakened and MpN recognizes the importance of maintaining the anti-Pact momentum established during the campaign to continue pressuring for change through civil society. END NOTE/COMMENT.) Infighting Threatens to Fracture PLC, ALN Gears up for the Future - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) According to Contra leader Luis Fley, there are rumors that a power struggle between Enrique Quinonez and Wilfredo Navarro could divide the PLC, with Quinonez leading the pro-Aleman faction. (NOTE: In October, Post submitted a second advisory opinion recommending that the Department revoke Quinonez' visa for facilitating trafficking in narcotics. The case is still pending. END NOTE.) Fley noted that the ALN continues to dispute Assembly seat assignments for Boaco and Matagalpa, and possibly the North Atlantic Autonomous Region (RAAN). He also shared that within the next ten days, he will accompany Montealegre to Matagalpa and Jinotega -- traditional Contra strongholds -- to continue efforts to gain support for the ALN in the PLC-dominated rural parts of these departments. Fley confirmed that the PLC's circulation of a fake resignation letter falsely attributed to Montealegre did considerable damage in these areas, as did false claims that Rizo was the candidate favored by the U.S. MRS Falls Victim to Assembly Machinations - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (C) Mario Valle, who won a seat the National Assembly for the MRS, has rejected his alliance with the MRS in favor of a possible alliance with President-elect Daniel Ortega's Sandinista Front (FSLN) or with Salvador Talavera, the break-away member of the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) who signed a Peace Accord with Ortega and who may now form his own "bancada" (caucus) in the Assembly. Valle's defection leaves the MRS with only three Assembly seats, not enough to form an official bancada. (COMMENT: Valle's move marks the beginning of the political game of alliance-swapping as deputies and parties evaluate their options and maneuver for greater advantage. At this point, it is unclear whether Talavera will attract enough members to create a new caucus. However, with the Aleman-Ortega Pact potentially weakened, it is clear that he sees potential to sell his votes to the highest bidder. END COMMENT.) Ortega Warns Rural Supporters against Land Grab - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (C) In apparent recognition of the concern amongst landowners that the Ortega presidency will usher in a new wave of land appropriations, Ortega met over the weekend with representatives of rural collective organizations to warn them that taking land is not acceptable. Ortega reportedly asked the attendees to respect private property rights and informed them that "titled properties will be handed out in an orderly manner and those that receive them must make payments." (COMMENT: In a meeting with investors in mid-October, Ortega did not address pointed questions about the court system's failure to resolve previous land seizure cases and asserted that, while private property rights are important, poor and indigenous people also have "rights that must be respected." Thus, despite Ortega's initial post-election statements, whether or not Ortega respects property rights looms large in the minds of most Nicaraguans and investors. END COMMENT.) MANAGUA 00002517 003 OF 003 TRIVELLI