IRREGULARITIES MAY INFLUENCE DISTRIBUTION OF

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 002484 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/USOAS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM NU SUBJECT: IRREGULARITIES MAY INFLUENCE DISTRIBUTION OF ASSEMBLY SEATS REF: A. MANAGUA 2466 ¶B. MANAGUA 2459 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Although the November 5 national elections occurred without significant outbreaks of violence or major systemic irregularities, mission observers nevertheless noted anomalies that may have been of a magnitude sufficient to affect the outcome of the distribution of deputy positions in the National Assembly. The limited training of poll watchers for the new parties and the Electoral Police corps, as well as the sporadic absences and inattentiveness of national observers, also contributed to an environment that PLC and FSLN officials were able to exploit to the advantage of their parties. The deputy races in several departments are very close, and the loss or gain of one seat in the Assembly can strongly influence the balance of power between parties in this emerging multi-party scenario. End Summary. Additional Anomalies Noted - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (SBU) Ref B detailed several irregularities reported by Embassy observers on election day. On November 7, our electoral volunteers gathered to discuss their experiences. The following points summarize additional observations regarding anomalies and the preparation of party poll watchers, Electoral Police, and national observers: - Voter Lists Difficult to Read: Observers noted that the voter lists posted outside of polling stations (JRVs) were not numbered and were often posted on doors (constantly opening and shutting) or high on walls, making the lists difficult to read. The CSE trained several officials to help voters identify the correct JRVs, but not enough to cover all voting centers. - Selective Voiding of Ballots: Several observers noticed an apparently selective voiding of ballots by JRV officials that appeared to be biased against the ALN and MRS. In some instances, officials "signed" ballots with initials instead of a full signature and then disqualified these ballots (all ALN and MRS) based on this "error." - Open FSLN Influence: In at least one instance, an observer road from her JRV with the ballots to the Municipal Electoral Council (CEM) headquarters in a Sandinista vehicle. When she reached the CEM, she noticed a large gathering of Sandinistas with FSLN propaganda throwing a party at the CEM to celebrate their victory. We received other reports of citizens soliciting (and receiving) voting documents at local FSLN campaign houses instead of the CEMs. - FSLN collusion with AC: Many contacts expressed concern that the "Alternative for Change" (AC) was just a fabrication to provide more FSLN supporters in the JRVs under a different party name. Observers noted in some instances that the AC failed to register any votes, even with a fiscal from that party present in the JRV. One AC fiscal told an observer that the name of the party is "Accion Cristiana." - ALN Fiscales Inexperienced: Ref B reported how experienced FSLN poll watchers (fiscales) were able to dominate decision making in their JRVs. Conversely, observers commented that, while the ALN did have widespread coverage of the JRVs, ALN fiscales appeared young and inexperienced and often did not challenge clear cases of bias against their voters (such as those mentioned above). - Inconsistencies With ET Observation: Before the election, national observers Etica y Transparencia (ET) planned to cover 100 percent of the JRVs. Our volunteers noticed that ET observers were absent in 25 to 30 percent of JRVs in some areas (though ET claims that most were in place before the JRV closings to record the vote totals). Additionally, the quality of ET observers appeared to vary considerably -- some were watching every step of the process while others were absent, ignorant of electoral laws and regulations, or otherwise inattentive. - Electoral Police: The Ministry of Government typically organizes a corps of special Electoral Police to assist during national elections. Observers reported that the Electoral Police were not present at all voting centers, and many were very young or elderly and did not seem to know what their role was during the elections. In Leon, the FSLN-affiliated Municipal Electoral Council president decided MANAGUA 00002484 002 OF 002 to substitute up to 100 (out of 400) Electoral Police, a function clearly beyond his jurisdiction. PLC and ALN fiscales complained that many of these substitutes had police records and favored the FSLN. FSN Misinformed and Harassed - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (SBU) The story of a mission FSN and her struggle to vote is particularly telling. Before election day, this FSN reported that teams of "pollsters" went around her neighborhood to identify FSLN supporters. Residents who indicated that they did not support Ortega were later informed that their JRV had been changed. The FSN later confirmed from the CSE web site that she had not been moved from her original JRV. ¶4. (SBU) On election day, after first tacitly confirming with the FSLN fiscal that she was not an Ortega supporter, the JRV president told the FSN that her name was not on the voter list by claiming that her first name was listed as her family name. Although the FSN did not receive support from the other fiscales, she insisted that everything was in order and was finally allowed to vote. After casting her ballots, the JRV second member glared at her and covered half her hand with smelly indelible ink. This FSN encountered major difficulties even though she was wearing a t-shirt and badge that identified her as an ET observer. Comment - - - - ¶5. (SBU) None of these factors appeared to be widespread enough to influence the outcome of the presidential race. The allocations of deputy seats in the National Assembly, however, are decided by much smaller margins and could be influenced by the voiding of results from one JRV, or even the strategic nullification of individual votes from several JRVs. ET is conducting a comprehensive review of the deputy votes (Ref A),though the absence of observers during the closing acts in some departments may affect ET's accuracy in some races. We will continue to closely monitor the process of challenges with other national and international observer groups to attempt to prevent a biased outcome. TRIVELLI