SIT REP 3 - NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 002473 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/USOAS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM NU SUBJECT: SIT REP 3 - NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS REF: MANAGUA 02459 Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). ¶1. (U) Summary: With the results of 91 percent of the voting tables (JRVs) in, Sandinista Liberation Front (FSLN) presidential candidate Daniel Ortega holds a virtually insurmountable nine-point lead over his closest competitor, Eduardo Montealegre of the Liberal Nicaraguan Alliance (ALN). Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) Jose Rizo is in third place, Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) Edmundo Jarquin in forth place, and Alternative for Change (AC) candidate Eden Pastora has less than 1 percent of the vote. Last night, Montealegre officially recognized Ortega's victory during a news conference, and Jarquin issued a statement this morning. The PLC still maintains that they will come in second place over Montealegre. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) On the evening of November 7, the CSE released its fifth report on election results covering 91.48 percent of the JRVs. Results for the president/vice president follow: FSLN: 38.07% (down from the previous report's 38.54%) ALN: 29.00% (down from 30.94%) PLC: 26.21% (up from 22.93%) AC: 0.27% (down from 0.29%) MRS: 6.44% (down from 7.25%) ¶3. (C) COMMENT: These latest PLC numbers are raising some eyebrows. They are several points higher than the first Etica y Transparencia (ET) quick count, which pegged them at 24.15%, and beyond the survey's expected margin of error (1.7%). The National Democratic Institute (NDI) examined the results and could not explain the anomaly. END COMMENT.) ¶4. (SBU) Preliminary results for National Assembly deputies selected at the national level: FSLN: 37.59 ALN: 26.72 PLC: 26.47 MRS: 8.69 AC: 0.54 Is the PACT over? - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (SBU) During a press conference on the evening of November 7, Montealegre recognized Ortega's victory. and visited Ortega in the FSLN's headquarters. He was the first presidential candidate to recognize Ortega's victory. During the encounter, Montealegre promised a constructive, intelligent, honest and democratic opposition for the next 5 years. Montealegre also predicted the end of the "pact" with the new balance of power and the ALN seats in the National Assembly. (COMMENT: Montealegre's acceptance of Ortega's win and his carefully crafted remarks made him seem the statesman in comparison to Rizo, who still has not recognized Ortega's victory and continues to claim that the PLC will place second. END COMMENT) ¶6. (SBU) Jarquin issued a statement the morning of November 8, recognizing Ortega, while pledging that the MRS is "here to stay." He reminded Nicaraguans that 60 percent of voters did not elect Ortega. He claimed this election signaled the end of the pact and promised to fight to make that a reality. ¶7. (U) Consejo Superior de la Empresa Privada (COSEP) president Erwin Kruger recognized Ortega's victory and said that the private sector offers him its "vote of confidence." Gustavo Fernandez, the head of the OAS' electoral observation mission, officially recognized Ortega as the next Nicaraguan president. ¶8. (C) PLC candidate Jose Rizo has not recognized Ortega's victory and maintains that the PLC will still place second over the ALN. (COMMENT: With 91% of the vote counted, this is highly unlikely. That said, some of our contacts have told us that the FSLN may have "pacted" with the PLC to alter the assignment of some of the National Assembly seats to favor the PLC to the detriment of the ALN, which might explain the discrepancy between the ET quick count and the latest numbers from the CSE. However, ALN campaign chief Adolfo Arguello told us that Montealegre's recognition of Ortega's victory would ensure that the FSLN will not allow the PLC to manipulate the vote count in its favor. FSLN Foreign Affairs chief Samuel Santos gave us a similar assessment. END COMMENT) TRIVELLI