NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS: THE SCENE ON THE GROUND TEN

S E C R E T MANAGUA 002377 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2026 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM NU SUBJECT: NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS: THE SCENE ON THE GROUND TEN DAYS OUT REF: A. MANAGUA 02116 ¶B. MANAGUA 02044 Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY/INTRODUCTION: With ten days remaining before Nicaragua's November 5 elections, three presidential candidates are scrambling to convince voters that they are best suited to beat Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) candidate Daniel Ortega. Ortega remains the frontrunner in all polls, surpassing the 35% mark in a poll conducted by a local university, whose predictions regarding past elections have been grossly off the mark (septel). Although Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) candidate Eduardo Montealegre continues in second place, his numbers have slipped. Placing third in reputable polls, Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) candidate Jose Rizo has gained a few points, while Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) candidate Edmundo Jarquin places fourth, and Eden Pastora of the Alternative for Change (AC) trails with barely 1%. In the most recent Cid Gallup poll, about 18% of the respondents were undecided or did not reveal their preferences, and according to the latest Borge Asociados poll, Ortega would beat Rizo in a runoff, but not Montealegre or Jarquin. ¶2. (C) SUMMARY/INTRODUCTION CONTINUED: The campaign period has been dominated by the PLC's incessant smear campaign against Montealegre to lower his numbers in the polls, while Ortega preaches peace and reconciliation and avoids confrontation. The Embassy, along with international and domestic observer organizations, continue to press the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) to deliver voter IDs and temporary voting cards before the election, and concerns about vote fraud continue to surface -- namely regarding the possibility that vote challenges (impugnaciones) by the dominant FSLN and PLC parties could alter the vote outcome. While the ALN is well on its way in preparing its party poll watchers (fiscales) and voting table (JRV) members, the MRS lacks personnel and funds to defend the vote. As in previous elections, Nicaragua's independent/undecided voters will likely determine the outcome of the election. If they rally around Montealegre, he could win the election, if not on the first round, in a runoff against Ortega. However, if independents split their votes and/or Jarquin's share of the Sandinista vote declines, Ortega may win on the first round. END SUMMARY/INTRODUCTION. NEARING THE HOME STRETCH - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) With ten days remaining before Nicaragua's November 5 national elections, three of the five presidential candidates are pulling out all the stops, each attempting to convince voters that they are best suited to beat Ortega. Contacts tell us that this campaign is the dirtiest in decades, with the PLC directing its most scathing attacks against Eduardo Montealegre. Tactics include resorting to bogus polls to persuade Nicaraguans that Rizo, not Montealegre, is Ortega's closest competitor; attempting to bribe ALN supporters to desert Montealegre; maligning female ALN candidates; and, securing Oliver North's tacit endorsement of Rizo, including North's sudden visit to Managua on October 23. Jarquin struggles with a cash-poor campaign and faces internal discord from the Movement to Rescue Sandinismo. Ortega continues preaching reconciliation and avoids confrontation, parading before the media his most prized "catch" -- ALN National Assembly candidate Salvador Talavera. However, Ortega has been less successful in his efforts to downplay the denunciation before the OAS Inter-American Human Rights Commission against Ortega and a number of other FSLN leaders for alleged atrocities against the Miskito population in the 1980s. Ortega's efforts to "buy" the Miskitos' charging him have failed. REMAINING CONCERNS: VOTER DOCUMENT DELIVERY, VOTE DEFENSE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) OAS and EU observers alike as well as our Embassy and the Carter Center have expressed concern over the CSE's snail's-paced delivery of national IDs (cedulas) and temporary voting documents (documentos supletorios, or SDs), as have the leaders of NGO Movimiento por Nicaragua (MpN). OAS Electoral Observation Mission (EOM) chief Gustavo Fernandez has called on the CSE to ensure delivery of some 400,000 documents before the elections. Rebecca Cox, an official with the European Union Electoral Observation Mission (EU/EOM),discussed EU/EOM concerns with the Elections Donor Group, informing them that CSE president Roberto Rivas recently told EU/EOM leaders that the CSE has no plan to distribute cedulas or SDs beyond the CSE's municipal (CEM) level. MpN has issued a public communique in the press calling for the CSE to do its utmost to comply with the production and delivery before November 5 of all cedulas and SDs in accordance with the constitution and on October 24 sponsored a peaceful demonstration in Managua to call on citizens to demand their cedulas or SDs. In the Ambassador's recent meeting with CSE magistrates, he impressed upon them that the delivery of cedulas and temporary voter documents is required to receive our endorsement of the electoral process. ¶5. (SBU) While the MRS has not recruited enough party poll watchers (fiscales) to defend its vote and is short on cash, the ALN appears to possess the manpower and probably will obtain the funds required to ensure that all of its supporters can deploy. According to ALN vote defense coordinator Zenalia Madrigal, the ALN will have an official present at 52% of the JRVs on election day. She shared with polcouns on October 19 the lists of ALN JRV officials and fiscales, noting that over 80,000 ALN supporters will be involved in the overall vote defense process -- which started with helping Nicaraguans obtain their cedulas and SDs. Madrigal was concerned, however, because some of these JRVs are located in isolated, sparsely populated areas -- while the ALN will have JRV officials at only 18% of the tables in Leon, a highly populated, potentially contentious department. POWER PRODUCERS AND DISTRIBUTORS GUARANTEE ENERGY SUPPLY - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (U) Power producers, distributors, and the Nicaraguan government have addressed concerns that Nicaragua's energy supply crisis could impede the electoral process on November 5 -- guaranteeing that supplies will be adequate from November 4-11. According to Rodrigo Barreto, the CSE has been performing simulated vote transmission tests to ensure that transmission will go smoothly even if there are power fluctuations or outages. POLICE/MILITARY PREPARE TO DEAL WITH ELECTION VIOLENCE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (C) Police Chief Aminta Granera has told us that there will be 20,000 electoral police, in addition to 10,000 regular police deployed on election day. However, she is concerned that Ortega could mobilize thousands to take to the streets to declare early victory. She has warned us that the police only have enough equipment (tear gas, rubber bullets, etc.) to deal with possible election-related violence for two days (six hours total). According to Granera, she had included the items in a budget request, and received everything else in the request except the anti-riot equipment. She requested support from the U.S. as the Police will hold the front line of defense on election day. ¶8. (C) According to DAO, the Nicaraguan military has expressed on several occasions that they have plans to ensure that demonstrations do not turn violent, but they have not shared any details, even when pressed. They also claim they have members "inserted in the FSLN" who will disrupt any plans to resort to violence. The military appear to be basing plans on their recent success during the Defense Ministerial meetings in Managua (no violence was planned, however) and believe their mere presence will suffice as a deterrent. Granera does not believe the military will support the Police if violence erupts and while RSO believes they have a good plan, they are incapable of handling multiple flash points, which could arise on election day. (NOTE: We are facilitating a meeting between the military and police to discuss coordination.) CASH FLOW IMPROVES FOR MONTEALEGRE, STILL TIGHT FOR JARQUIN - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶9. (S) With COSEP's October 20 formal endorsement of Eduardo Montealegre, following the release of a COSEP-sponsored poll (Ortega received 32.5 %; Montealegre 21.1 %; Rizo 16.8 %; Jarquin 11.8%; and Pastora 1%. Undecided/no response was high - around 17%),comes its members' commitment to finance a robust publicity campaign in favor of Montealegre. The Taiwanese minister counselor told us earlier in the day that following COSEP's blessing, funds will pour in for Montealegre, including from Taiwan. (COMMENT: Montealegre recently told us that the COSEP endorsement has convinced more Nicaraguan and foreign financiers to contribute. Thus far, he has received $1 million from the Taiwanese and hopes to receive an additional $1 million - in line with Taiwan's $2 million to Bolanos when he ran for office in 2001.) MORE PLC MILITANTS BACK MONTEALEGRE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶10. (C) Following Embassy efforts to encourage contact with the ALN campaign, 400 members of the PLC publicly declared their support for Eduardo Montealegre's candidacy on October 21 (see 10/2 update and Managua 2097). PLC municipal officer and president of the pro-Montealegre GANARAM movement Eugenio Rodriguez stated that he would support Montealegre as the only candidate who can defeat Daniel Ortega, even though the other candidates (Jose Rizo and Edmundo Jarquin) are trying to drag Montealegre down. Margarita Sequeira, PLC deputy candidate in Chinandega, claimed that "Eduardo represents true Liberal values, not the authoritarianism of Arnoldo Aleman and his cronies." Montealegre called upon PLC JRV members and fiscales to defend the vote against FSLN fraud and invited all Liberals to support the ALN campaign. WHO'S SUPPORTING RIZO AND WHY? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶11. (C) ALN National Assembly deputy/candidate Yamileth Bonilla recently shed light on PLC candidate Rizo's apparent sudden increase in cash flow, as evidenced by a dramatic spike in campaign spots and paraphernalia. She reported to polcouns that Mexican media mogul Angel Gonzalez contributed USD 450,000 to Rizo's campaign. Bonilla believes that this donation enabled Rizo and the PLC to ratchet up the smear campaign against Montealegre. (COMMENT: Gonzalez is partial owner of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) slanted channel 4 and holds substantial investment with the FSLN in channel 10. He also holds shares in channel 12. We cannot confirm this allegation, but Gonzalez' support for Rizo would make sense in that it helps keep Rizo in the race and the Liberals divided, which in turn increases FSLN candidate Daniel Ortega's chances to win on the first round. Gonzalez also competes with Channel 2, whose owners back Montealegre. Further, more recently, Channel 10 backed the Central American University (UCA) poll, whose results favor Ortega and Rizo. According to some students involved in the poll, the results were manipulated. END COMMENT.) ¶12. (C) Jordanian-Nicaraguan Ismat Tarek Khatib is another reported PLC supporter, who allegedly is supplying the PLC with cloth for banners, t-shirts, and hats. Khatib's U.S. visa was recently revoked under 212 (A) (3) (B) for terrorist activities, including fundraising. He has also been reportedly involved in customs scams, including paying low taxes on undervalued luxury vehicles and textiles, as well as in the illegal movement of people and possibly trafficking in persons. He was detained on September 14 while attempting to bring in two Indonesian women who told polcouns they believed their final destination was the United States. ARCHBISHOP REITERATES NEED TO SCRUTINIZE CANDIDATES' PAST RECORDS, CARDENAL MUTES HIS ENDORSEMENT OF ORTEGA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶13. (C) Drawing on the Catholic Church's August pastoral letter regarding the upcoming elections, Archbishop Leopoldo Brenes appealed to Nicaraguans to vote, and to "choose the ideal person to govern the country, the person who has principles, a person of God, sincere and transparent." He also urged voters to look at the candidates' pasts and the programs they offer. The local papers also highlighted Pope Benedict XVI's recent call for Catholic Church leaders to refrain from politicking. Likely in response to the Pope's remarks, Cardenal Obando y Bravo -- who has appeared over the months with Daniel Ortega in clear endorsement of the FSLN presidential candidate -- attempted to justify his association with Ortega by asserting that he supports certain qualities and principles, not a particular candidate. Since the Pope's statement, Obando has appeared less frequently with Ortega and has met with Arnoldo Aleman. However, he continues to support candidates who call for "peace and reconciliation," Ortega's campaign motto. CONTACTS' PREDICTIONS RUN THE GAMUT, MOST POINT TO RUNOFF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶14. (C) Several Embassy interlocutors have shared their predictions regarding Nicaragua's November 5 election outcome. A sampling of predictions follows: --Nuncio Jean Paul Gobel believes that Ortega's victory is "possible but not probable," warning us that that popular support for the FSLN has grown in some areas of the country, including in traditionally Conservative Granada, where entire barrios now support the FSLN. --Foreign Minister Norman Caldera predicts that Montealegre can garner 35% of the vote in the first round. According to Caldera, the polling organizations employ weighting models based on U.S. demographics that give similar weight to each age category, while the polls should use a "pyramid-shaped" demographic model that gives more weight to the younger age groups. He also believes that poll participants are reluctant to reveal non-Ortega voting intentions to the young college students conducting the polls because the participants assume the students are Sandinistas. --Nicaraguan Minister of Defense Avil Ramirez is confident that Montealegre will win the presidential elections in the first round. He claims that Montealegre has met with Army chief Gen. Omar Halleslevens and that the Army wants Montealegre to win because he would not threaten the Army's relationship with the USG. (Comment: This information conflicts with reports that the Army has supported FSLN officials with transportation on the Atlantic Coast and other rural areas.) --Chief Police Commissioner Aminta Granera believes Ortega will likely win the elections given the divided Right and the fact that he requires only 35% to win on the first round if his nearest competitor trails by 5% or more. --FSLN dissident Alejandro Martinez Cuenca fears Daniel Ortega will win because Rizo and Montealegre will divide the Right and Sandinista dissident Jarquin has not been able to obtain much of the FSLN vote. --MRS Assembly candidate Dora Maria Tellez does not believe the FSLN can win fairly but is certain that the FSLN is prepared to commit fraud to steal the elections. She told us recently that the MRS will warn the FSLN that if it steals the election, the MRS will "take to the streets," opining that this is the "only kind of message Ortega understands." --MFA International Organizations Director, Ambassador Mauricio Diaz, confided to us recently that Supreme Court Justice Payo Solis (FSLN) told him Ortega will probably win the November 5 election. Moreover, Solis claimed that if Ortega falls short, the FSLN will steal the points required to win -- ensuring that a "Mexico scenario" does not occur, Solis said. --CSE Executive Director Rodrigo Barreto shared with us on October 24 that this time the Sandinistas are confident victory is in their reach, adding that while his family is anti-Ortega, this time they are debating between backing Montealegre or Rizo. North's recent visit to Managua in support of Rizo has furthered confused some family members, he explained, although he is clear that the PLC is merely attempting to confuse non-Sandinista voters so that they consider voting for Rizo instead of Montealegre. COMMENT - - - - ¶15. (C) As in previous elections, Nicaragua's independent/undecided voters will likely determine the outcome of the election. If they rally around Montealegre, he could win the election, if not on the first round, in a runoff against Ortega. However, if independents split their votes and/or Jarquin's share of the Sandinista vote declines, Ortega may win on the first round. TRIVELLI