NICARAGUAN PRESIDENTIAL POLLS -- MORE NUMBERS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 002366 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2016 TAGS: EAID KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL SUBJECT: NICARAGUAN PRESIDENTIAL POLLS -- MORE NUMBERS, MORE CONFUSION REF: A. MANAGUA 02338 ¶B. MANAGUA 02225 Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). ¶1. (C) (SBU) SUMMARY: The most recent Nicaraguan presidential polls still point to the likelihood of a runoff in the November 5 presidential election. From poll to poll the candidates have gained and lost percentage points, but Sandinista Liberation Front (FSLN) candidate Daniel Ortega has maintained a lead over Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) candidate Eduardo Montealegre. Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) candidate Jose Rizo and Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) candidate Edmundo Jarquin are in third or forth place depending on the poll. Two recent polls (with results obviously manipulated for political purposes) are confusing potential voters, and possibly increasing the likelihood that Ortega could win on a first round. END SUMMARY. THE NUMBERS - - - - - - ¶2. (C) Surveys -- intention for presidential vote Borges y Asociados (IRI poll) released publicly October 24 Daniel Ortega -- 33.9% Eduardo Montealegre -- 28.8% Edmundo Jarquin -- 13.8% Jose Rizo -- 17.2% Undecided -- 5.8% CID-Gallup (COSEP poll) released October 20 Daniel Ortega -- 32.5% Eduardo Montealegre -- 21.1% Edmundo Jarquin -- 11.8% Jose Rizo -- 16.8% Undecided -- 17.8% Zogby International/University of Miami poll released October 20 Daniel Ortega -- 35% Eduardo Montealegre -- 20% Edmundo Jarquin -- 14% Jose Rizo -- 16% Undecided -- 15% ¶3. (C) Surveys with questionable results Central American University (UCA) Daniel Ortega -- 37.5% Eduardo Montealegre -- 17.31% Edmundo Jarquin -- 12.90% Jose Rizo -- 20.11% Undecided -- 11.8% GCM Corporation (PLC poll) Daniel Ortega -- 34.27% Eduardo Montealegre -- 13.60% Edmundo Jarquin -- 11.10% Jose Rizo -- 31.70% Undecided -- 7.21% THE RESULTS - - - - - - ¶4. (C) The latest IRI-sponsored Borges y Asociados poll (1,400 people polled, 2-2.5% margin of error) shows that it is still a close race between Ortega (33.9%) and Montealegre (28.8%),followed by Rizo (17.2%),Jarquin (13.8%) and Pastora (0.6%). Of the people polled, 5.8% declined to 
respond or indicated that they were undecided. Ortega and Rizo still maintain the highest negative ratings -- when the respondents were asked "who they would never vote for," 46.1% indicated Ortega and 28.0% indicated Rizo. Respondents indicated that they would vote for the deputy candidates of the competing parties as follows: FSLN (34.3%); ALN (24.8%); PLC (17.1%); MRS (13.5%). Other results included greater support for Ortega among respondents ages 30-49 rather than among youth. Montealegre was stronger with voters ages 16-29 and those 50 and over. According to this poll, a runoff between Montealegre and Ortega seems the most likely outcome. However, Ortega is close to the 35% needed to win on the first round and still maintains a 5% lead over Montealegre. ¶5. (C) Business chamber umbrella organization COSEP sponsored a poll conducted by CID-Gallup (less than 2% margin of error). In the poll, Ortega received 32.5%; Montealegre 21.1 %; Rizo 16.8 %; Jarquin 11.8%; and Pastora less than 1%. Undecided/no response was high -- around 18%. COSEP signed a communique endorsing presidential candidate Eduardo Montealegre, following the release of the poll. In this latest poll Montealegre,s numbers dropped as did Jarquin,s, and Rizo,s numbers did not rise significantly. The high number of undecided voters indicates that they will likely determine the outcome of the November 5 election. ¶6. (C) The Zogby International poll recently cited in several Reuters articles (3.5% margin of error) shows a win on the first round for Ortega with 35% followed at a distant second by Montealegre (20%),Rizo (16%) and Jarquin (14%). The undecided vote is 15 percent. An earlier Zogby poll conducted September 1-2 showed similar results -- Ortega led with 24%, followed by Montealegre with 19%. POLL WARS - - - - - ¶7. (C) Besides the reputable polls, several others have been released with manipulated or falsified results. The University of Central America (UCA) released a poll showing Ortega with 37.50% of the vote, followed at a distant second by Rizo (20.11%),Montealegre (17.31%),Jarquin (12.90%) and Pastora (1.00%) as part of its "Electoral Forum," which is also supported by "El Nuevo Diario," Channel 10 Radio Tiempo, the Chamber of Commerce (CACONIC) and the Danish government (SEPTEL: Managua 02338). The poll was released during a live broadcast on FSLN/PLC-leaning Channel 10. After the release of the poll, several of the survey's "supporters" have distanced themselves from the results and an Embassy contact claims that the numbers were manipulated. COMMENT: According to embassy contacts, there are reasons to believe that the poll results were manipulated, to advance the interests of the FSLN-PLC pact, to show that Ortega can win without fraud on a first round and that Rizo is the only hope to defeat him. ¶8. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: Another recent "poll," was released by the PLC and shows the election going to a second round with Rizo (31.70%) just slightly behind Ortega (34.27%). Nicaraguan journalists checked into GCM (the alleged polling company) and found that it was a facade organization with vacant offices and no employees to be found. It appears that the poll was created by the PLC to show Rizo as the only candidate that can beat Ortega. We believe that this is the poll the PLC used to convince Oliver North that Rizo is neck and neck with Ortega, with Montealegre trailing behind. END COMMENT. WHERE DOES MONTEALEGRE STAND? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶9. (C) COMMENT: While Montealegre,s numbers have leveled-off or dropped in recent polls (likely in large part because of Rizo,s increasingly ugly smear campaign against him, the release of fabricated polls favoring Rizo over Montealegre, and the parading of Oliver North,s only slightly veiled endorsement of the PLC),Jarquin,s numbers also fell, and Rizo,s numbers did not rise significantly. Montealegre may still be able to reinvigorate his campaign, however -- several recent developments may strengthen Montealegre's standing and help him win over the undecided vote. ¶10. (C) With COSEP,s formal endorsement of Montealegre, comes its members, commitment to finance a robust publicity campaign in favor of Montealegre. Montealegre also recently met with MRS candidate Edmundo Jarquin, who shared the results of the latest Greenberg, Quinlan Rosner Research poll. Reportedly, the Greenberg poll shows Ortega with around 33% of the vote, followed by Montealegre with around 28%. Montealegre recounted that Jarquin conceded he cannot defeat Ortega. He agreed to refrain from attacking Montealegre and direct his energies against the FSLN-PLC pact and sought Montealegre,s help in persuading the private sector to support these efforts. According to Montealegre, ALN and MRS foreign campaign consultants will meet in Managua this week to determine how to jointly defend the vote on November 5. ¶11. (C) Montealegre still has a strong chance of garnering enough votes to go to a second round. Polls indicate that he would be the clear winner over Ortega on a second round. However, the Nicaraguan voter is being inundated with polls, some reputable and others created or manipulated for political purposes, which is creating confusion. The most recent manipulations have been designed to support the pacto -- increased confusion among the voters will mean more votes for Rizo and a better chance for an Ortega victory. If voters opt for Rizo instead of Montealegre, there is a strong chance that Ortega will win the election on the first round. END COMMENT. TRIVELLI