NICARAGUA'S OAS AMBASSADOR CONCERNED ABOUT FRAUD

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000223 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI NU SUBJECT: NICARAGUA'S OAS AMBASSADOR CONCERNED ABOUT FRAUD AND VENEZUELA REF: MANAGUA 220 Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (SBU) The OAS election observation team and efforts to combat election fraud may fail unless certain steps are taken, according to Nicaraguan Ambassador to the OAS Jose Luis Velasquez. Velasquez, and senior MFA advisor Ariel Granera, during a 26 January meeting with the Ambassador, DCM and Poloff, voiced their concerns about the OAS election observation team, election fraud, and Venezuelan funding for the FSLN. Both individuals stressed the importance of a clear message on election observations from the OAS and the Embassy. ¶2. (SBU) Velasquez opined that a loophole in the way the OAS election observation team was invited to Nicaragua could be used to invalidate the team's observations. He believes that the OAS team must clarify this issue. (Note: For the last few months, three PLC magistrates on the seven member board of the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) have abstained. There must be five votes in order to have a quorum, which means that the legality of any recent CSE decisions, including the invitation to the OAS observers, could be questioned. OAS envoy John Biehl (Reftel) confirmed to CSE magistrates on January 26 that the CSE invitation was not legitimate for this reason and also because it must be transmitted to the OAS via the MFA.) Velasquez observed that it is "too late for the Atlantic Coast elections," and that the 25 planned OAS election observers will only be able to gather information on problems that must be addressed before the national elections. ¶3. (SBU) Granera also expressed concerns about the OAS election team, asserting that the team must establish a minimum threshold of accomplishments to ensure free and fair elections. He believes that if the team decides a thorough scrub of the voter registry (padron) is necessary to ensure a fair election, it will be impossible to accomplish this before November and there will be a move to postpone elections. Velasquez mentioned that if the team recommends replacing the entire CSE, this too might derail the elections; both agreed that these actions must be taken after the election. They urged the United States and the OAS team to clearly state their objectives and to be completely frank with the CSE about the requirements for OAS participation and what must be accomplished. The Ambassador and DCM outlined the three-part plan for election observation, diagnosis of the problems, and technical assistance from IFES, and urged Velasquez and Granera to help correct misperceptions that IFES is a U.S. government agency. ¶4. (C) Velasquez then voiced his concerns about the February 1 release of an OAS report on the recent Venezuelan (regional) elections. He fears that the report will validate Chavez's election and pushed for a combined message from the United States and Nicaragua that forcefully rejects a process that legitimizes a fraudulent government. He believes that few countries in the region will speak out against the report. Granera claims that ties between Venezuela and Cuba are stronger than ever and that "Chavez and Fidel will not let Ortega lose." He believes that Chavez is actively funding the FSLN. When the Ambassador asked if he had any proof or names of people who received money from Chavez, Velasquez claimed that Chavez is too smart to do anything overt, but that almost everyone from the FSLN who travels to Caracas brings back money in their suitcases to finance Ortega's election campaign. TRIVELLI