OAS UPDATES ELECTION POSTURE

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 002195

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/USOAS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/2026
TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV PINR
SUBJECT: OAS UPDATES ELECTION POSTURE


1. (C) POL TDYers met on 29 September with OAS country
electoral mission coordinator Patricio Gajardo to discuss
the OASQ observation mission and election procedural
issues. Gajardo noted that the Supreme Electoral Council
(CSE) had announced final numbers for the number of
registered voters and of polling tables to be open on
election day. He expects the total voter turnout to be
between 2.6 and 2.8 million, who will cast their votes from
one of 11,274 voting tables (JRVs). After the polls close,
the JRV officials will tally the various races and submit
the results; the data on the presidential race will be
submitted electronically direct to a CSE central
repository. The OAS will place observers at points
throughout the process, and Gajardo noted that his
organization maintains a fairly good working relationship
with the CSE. END SUMMARY.


THE NUMBERS
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2. (SBU) OAS country electoral mission coordinator
Patricio Gajardo met with POL TDYers on 29 September to
discuss the election process and the readiness of the OAS
election observation mission. He had received an advance
copy from the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) of the final
figures for the voter rolls and voting precincts indicating
there will be 11,274 individual voting tables (JRVs) at
4,296 polling places on election day. The final voter
roster (padron electoral) lists 3.6 million eligible
voters, but Gajardo estimated that the number of voters
likely to go to the polls on election day will be between
2.6 and 2.8 million. He noted that the discrepancy can be
explained by the fact that the roster does not fully
reflect people who may have left the country, died, or who
simply do not intend to vote.


3. (SBU) Gajardo was bullish on what he views as a robust
observation effort. On the international front, he said
that the OAS plans to field about 140 observers, the EU
130, and the Carter Center 50. (COMMENT: The Embassy
plans to field between 40-50 observers. END COMMENT.) He
noted that the number of national observers will be much
larger -- local NGO Etica y Transparencia alone plans to
field one observer in each of the JRVs. The NGO community
is also training members of the Liberal Nicaraguan Alliance
(ALN) and Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) to represent
their parties at the polls on election day.


CASTING THE VOTES AND COUNTING THE RESULTS
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4. (SBU) Each JRV will display four ballot boxes for
voters to insert their votes for each of the four races:
the president, national Assembly deputy slate, regional
deputy slate, and deputy slate for the Central American
Parliament (PARLACEN). Gajardo noted that the ballots are
made distinct by a color coding system. However, he noted
that the similarities between the colors for some of the
ballots could cause some confusion in those JRVs that are
poorly lit - he pointed out that much of the counting will
be done in the evening.


5. (SBU) The JRVs will be located in local schools or
other public buildings. Each location is supposed to be
equipped with a light source and electricity, but this
requirement may not always be met. Many, if not most,
locations will be hot (i.e. lacking air conditioners or
fans) and may have as little as one light source. Gajardo
commented that such conditions could cause tensions to run
high late in the evenings during the crucial counting
phase. JRV officials will need to be present from the
opening of the JRV at 0530 to begin preparations. The
polls themselves will open at 0700 and officially close at
1800, but voting will not end until all those who were in
line by 1800 have cast their ballots. (COMMENT: The JRV
members are required to be present for the entire process.
The party poll watchers (fiscales) and observers are not
bound to be present by law, but will almost certainly be
instructed by their backers, particularly those from the
various parties, to stay throughout the process. END
COMMENT.)


6. (SBU) Once the last ballot has been cast, the JRV
officials will open the ballot box for the presidential
vote and begin counting. The results are tallied by hand
on a draft sheet. Once the presidential ballot box is
emptied, the JRV members conduct a final count of the
ballots to ensure that they have counted one for each
voter. Upon entering the JRVs, voters will be handed four
ballots and are required to submit all four ballots in
their corresponding boxes after marking them. If the final
count does not correspond to the total number of voters to
have visited the JRV that day, the officials then open the
remaining boxes to see whether the missing ballots have
been misfiled.


7. (SBU) Once the presidential vote count has been
completed by the JRV, the results are transferred from the
draft tally sheet to an official one. The officials then
proceed with counting the ballots for the other races.
After the counting is complete, the results of the
presidential count are transmitted electronically to the
CSE central repository where they are compiled with the
results from the other voting places. The process of
tallying the remaining races is the same for the subsequent
three boxes, except that those results will not be
electronically submitted. Instead, the official tally
sheets will be delivered to the CSE by the JRV members.


8. (SBU) Gajardo claimed that about 80% of the electronic
ballot transmissions will be sent via fax or scanner. The
remaining ones will be sent in by satellite phone Q these
latter will be mostly from remote localities. Gajardo
noted that each of the tally sheets will be scrambled into
a code, submitted, and will only be decoded once they
arrive at the mainframe at the designated CSE processing
center. There CSE technicians will unscramble the code and
put the results into a readable number format. Gajardo
noted that there are 2-3 security controls to keep the
transcribers in check. In addition, OAS and EU technicians
will be at this facility acting as observers. (COMMENT:
We have recently heard from discussions with a phone
company executive that the transmissions may not be
scrambled at all. We are looking into this and other
transmission-related issues, on which we will report
separately. END COMMENT.)


9. (SBU) Gajardo estimated that the faster-moving tables
could finish the whole counting process in about four hours
after the polls close. Assuming that voting stops around
1800, these JRVs could begin submitting their results by
about 2200. The JRVs are not allowed to break until they
wrap up their efforts. Thus, some JRVs could be counting
far into the night or early the next morning.


10. (SBU) Gajardo noted that the ballot boxes will
ultimately be sealed by the JRV workers and transported to
CSE headquarters. The ballots themselves will be
transported in a CSE vehicle, while accompanied by a
caravan of police or military escort, the fiscales, and
other party representatives. The official results of the
elections must be announced by 15 November when all
challenges must also have been resolved.


OAS CONTROLS
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11. (SBU) OAS observers plan to track the presidential
tallies from approximately 100 randomly chosen polling
centers to ensure that they make it through the entire
process without manipulation. At these locations the
observers will oversee the entire counting process as well
as the transmission of the data. OAS observers working at
the CSE central repository of the transmissions will
witness how CSE technicians process the data and
incorporate it into the final official results.


12. (SBU) Gajardo noted that the OAS will be mounting a
quick count effort at about 70 tables selected from rural
and urban areas in all departments. The results will go
straight to the OAS election center; Gajardo expects these
to be accurate within a margin of 1.5 to 2%. He admitted,
however, that in a close election these counts would not
necessarily be able to firmly predict the outcome. He
noted that Etica y Transparencia will be doing another
quick count with a much larger sample Q in the range of
about 1,000 tables.


WHAT ABOUT A SECOND ROUND?
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13. (SBU) Gajardo noted that the OAS has thought about a
second round observation mission, but has not yet worked
out the details. He estimated that the OAS would field
only around 30 observers, but that the organization had yet
to work out the finances. He expects a second round
mission of about this size to cost around $400,000.


OAS-CSE RELATIONS
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14. (SBU) Gajardo said that his relations with the CSE are
relatively good, noting that he enjoys access to all
divisions of the council, and that he meets weekly with
Rodrigo Barreto, whom he characterized as CSE President
Roberto RivasQ right-hand-man. He added that the CSE has
been responsive to his suggestions on occasions, and cited
the CSEQs decision to change some of the procedural
requirements at the JRV level which the OAS cited as
potentially problematic. Specifically, Gajardo referred to
the CSEQs announcement that all JRV members had to sign the
official paperwork of the JRV, changing the pre-existing
stipulation that said the failure of one JRV representative
to sign would be grounds to throw out the all the votes
from that voting table.


PLC AND FSLN BETTER PREPARED THAN THEIR NEWER COUNTERPARTS
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15. (SBU) Gajardo noted that the Sandinista National
Liberation Front (FSLN) is clearly the best-prepared of the
political parties. QThey know everythingQ he said when
referring to Sandinista knowledge of the rules and
regulations pertaining to the election. The same holds
true for the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC),which
according to Gajardo, Qknows this by heart.Q Much of this
expertise is due, he said, to the fact that these parties
have been involved in writing and re-writing the electoral
code to suit their interests since 1990.


16. (C) By contrast, Gajardo noted that the Sandinista
Renovation Movement (MRS) and the Nicaraguan Liberal
Alliance (ALN) are less familiar with the details and are
somewhat Qnaove.Q He noted that representatives from these
parties' central headquarters often Qdo not know what is
going onQ or that they are too hesitant to raise complaints
with the CSE; they would rather raise a fuss after the
election when it may be too late. That said, Gajardo was
upbeat when referring to the fiscales and JRV
representatives now going through the ALN and MRS training
processes. He noted that the parties have worked very
closely with local NGOs to develop solid training measures,
which frequently include mock elections. (COMMENT:
According to ALN and MRS contacts, many of their party poll
watchers and JRV officials are experienced as they worked
in these positions in the past with the PLC and FSLN,
respectively. END COMMENT.)


IRI MANUALS WATER UNDER THE BRIDGEQFOR THE MOST PART
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17. (C) Gajardo noted that while IRI faces a pending legal
case filed by the CSE over its issuance of training manuals
the CSE claims contained outdated information, IRI will
most likely be allowed to continue its operations. He
suggested, however, that the manuals had irked many besides
the CSE board. He said that the colors (red, white, and
blue) and reference to former President Ronald Reagan in
the introductory note turned many people off and raised
questions that the material was politicized. While the IRI
will probably be able to resolve its legal battles, Gajardo
suspects that the CSE will make former IRI official
Gilberto Valdez, who is now working with the ALN, the Q
fall guy.Q


18. (C) COMMENT: Post has heard from several sources that
the electronic transmission process of the results may be
susceptible to several problems, including power outages,
faulty or missing telephone cables, or fraud. We are
following up on these possibilities and will report on our
findings septel. END COMMENT.
TRIVELLI