"EDUARDO WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT, UNLESS FSLN

S E C R E T MANAGUA 002160 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/USOAS, NSC FOR DAN FISK E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2026 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM NU SUBJECT: "EDUARDO WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT, UNLESS FSLN FRAUD PREVENTS IT," PREDICTS MONTEALEGRE,S CAMPAIGN ADVISER Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). ¶1. (C) Over lunch at the Presidency on 28 September, Eduardo Montealegre's campaign adviser Mario Elgarresta asserted to President Bolanos' chief of staff Nayo Somarriba, DCM, and polcouns that Ncaaguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) candidate Montealegre will be Nicaragua's next president -- unless Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) candidate Daniel Ortega steals the election on the first round. Elgarresta listed the departments of Managua, Matagalpa, Leon, Granada, and Chinandega as the most vulnerable areas, as these are Nicaragua's most densely populated regions. ¶2. (C) Elgarresta noted that ALN polls show that Montealegre is closing in on the FSLN candidate, placing approximately two to three points below frontrunner Ortega, while Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) candidate Jose Rizo trails Montealegre by about ten points. According to Elgarresta, Montealegre leads by 14-15 points in Chinandega and Granada, while Ortega maintains a two-point lead over Montealegre in Leon. Ortega enjoys a few points' lead over Rizo in Matagalpa, followed closely by Montealegre; however, he believes Montealegre can gain more support there. Arguing that Ortega has reached his ceiling, but Montealegre has not, Elgarresta was confident that the bulk of independent and undecided voters, as well as some PLC supporters, will shift their support to Montealegre once they are convinced that he is the only candidate who can beat Ortega. ¶3. (S) Regarding Montealegre's campaign, Elgarresta noted that it is finally shaping up and campaign money flowing in -- but not soon enough. (NOTE/COMMENT: According to Montealegre supporter Vilma Leon-York, who is assisting Eduardo Montealegre's fundraising efforts, Montealegre's wife Eliza will participate in fundraising events in Atlanta, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Miami over the next week. Eduardo will participate in a fundraising event in Miami on October 10, reportedly with the support of Mel Martinez, and an event in Washington DC on October 16, reportedly with the support of Jeanne Kirkpatrick. We also hear that the Taiwanese will support Montealegre starting early October. END NOTE/COMMENT.) ¶4. (C) Elgarresta explained that he closely monitors the communications aspects of the campaign, which includes a substantial spike in radio and television spots during the month of October. While many of the spots will focus on what Montealegre offers, some will attack Ortega, specifically warning voters that the forced conscription of the 1980s could return if the FSLN wins. One spot will feature a woman who lost one of her son's in the 1980s. Elgarresta noted that ALN will also play on Congressman Burton's recent warning that an Ortega victory could spell disaster for the some 800 million dollars or so in remittances expatriate Nicaraguans send home each year. ¶5. (C) Regarding how the U.S. can best help, Elgarresta listed ensuring a clean electoral process through massive, top-notch observation and our "encouragement" of private sector backing. (COMMENT: Other recent polls also suggest that Montealegre is closing in on Ortega; however the possibility that Ortega will do his utmost to alter the election results to win on the first round is real. In addition to manipulations through the use of vote challenges (impugnaciones),we are hearing from a number of contacts that the FSLN is planning targeted power and phone line outages in voting centers and tables (JRVs) where Ortega is weak to interrupt voting and tabulation as well as the faxing of results from these areas. Informed observers, party poll watchers, and voters can help deter and minimize the fraud. END COMMENT.) TRIVELLI