GANARAM: ENCOURAGING PLC MEMBERS TO VOTE

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 002097 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2026 TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL SUBJECT: GANARAM: ENCOURAGING PLC MEMBERS TO VOTE MONTEALEGRE ¶1. (C) Summary: Polcouns and Emboffs met with Eugenio Rodriguez, a Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) member who is part of GANARAM, a movement calling on PLC members to vote for Eduardo Montealegre. Instead of advocating a break with the PLC, GANARAM is encouraging PLC voters to support Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) candidate Eduardo Montealegre, whom GANARAM members view as a "true Liberal." Rodriguez, frustrated with the PLC leadership -- he characterized them as a "mafia" -- sees Montealegre as the perfect Liberal candidate: young, professional, and with a clean reputation. Rodriguez first began supporting Montealegre when the latter was still in the PLC and a member of the Bolanos Cabinet. Rodriguez, and other mid-level PLC members have grown increasingly disgusted with the party leadership's continued adherence to the political pact ("pacto") with the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN),poor party performance in the 2004 municipal elections, and the decision to boot Montealegre from the party. End Summary. ¶2. (C) On 20 September Polcouns and Emboffs met with Eugenio Rodriguez, a longtime PLC member who is encouraging PLC members to vote in favor of Eduardo Montealegre. Rodriguez is President of an organization called the National Action Group in Favor of Rizo Supporting Montealegre (GANARAM in its Spanish initials),whose members are committed PLC members who advocate voting for Montealegre because they are frustrated with PLC leadership and view Jose Rizo as a weak candidate chosen by a corrupt party leader -- Arnoldo Aleman. Rodriguez himself is a PLC member of Matagalpa's municipal council and a longtime PLC official, having served the party in several capacities at the municipal level and also as a party representative at the polls in previous elections. (Comment: Matagalpa itself is run by a FSLN mayors, and the FSLN also dominates the council, which includes members from other parties, such as Rodriguez. End Comment.) ¶3. According to its mission statement, GANARAM lists the following eight points as reasons for its positions: --All polls to date show that Montealegre is the clear preference for democratic voters. --These polls reveal that the sum of Montealegre and Rizo votes would guarantee the triumph of center-right candidate. --Montealegre is the only Liberal who can defeat Ortega. �A;--Montealegre is a "genuine" and accomplished Liberal. --While Rizo is a good person, supporting him will only serve to divide the right. --The division of the center-right will only result in an FSLN victory and a return to the poor conditions of Sandinista rule. --Liberals are obligated to do everything possible to avoid a FSLN win. --Montealegre should lead a united Liberal front in order to prevent a FSLN victory. ALN-PLC Divide Could Prove Disastrous - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) Rodriguez warned that the existence of two Liberal candidates divides the center-right to the point that Ortega could come out with a win. He noted that the Sandinistas could win in November because historically there has not been a large difference between PLC and FSLN vote counts, and that difference is likely to shrink further given the other candidacies voters have to choose from. Reflecting on the 2001 elections, Rodriguez recalled that the PLC won with about 1.3 million votes compared to 900,000 of the FSLN -- a difference of about 400,000 votes. This time around, the ALN and the MRS are cutting into this cushion, making it all the more likely that Ortega could win. ¶5. (C) On the opposite side of the coin, the Sandinistas are running unopposed and making use of substantial resources, to a great extent made possible by their strong showing in the 2004 elections. Rodriguez expressed frustration that the budget of Sandinista-controlled Matagalpa is 153 million Cordobas, but that the FSLN was using much of it to fill their campaign coffers. (Comment: Rodriguez did not address the impact of the MRS campaign on the Sandinistas, which we think is capable of siphoning off some of the FSLN vote. MRS officials have told us they think that they can steal at least 5 points of the FSLN vote, perhaps more. End Comment.) Eduardo the Ideal Liberal - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) Rodriguez first began supporting Montealegre when the latter was still in the PLC and a member of President Enrique Bolanos' Cabinet. He said that back then he and others saw Montealegre as the perfect Liberal candidate: young, professional, and with a clean reputation. Near the end of 2003, Rodriguez visited Montealegre when he was serving as Minister of Finance and expressed interest in backing Montealegre for the PLC's presidential nomination. Montealegre agreed to the support, and Rodriguez then joined the 'Vamos Con Eduardo' movement that in effect launched Montealegre to national status. Rodgriguez made clear he and similar-minded PLC members launched the initiative with the hope that Montealegre would become the PLC candidate. Rodriguez said that even though Montealegre has formed a new political movement, he remains a Liberal in terms of his politics and ideology. PLC Worth Saving - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (C) Despite his support for Montealegre, Rodriguez remains committed to the PLC. Instead of resigning from the party and following Montealegre to his Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN),Rodriguez said that he and others have decided to stay in the PLC in hopes of fixing the party from within. Rodriguez still sees the party as having a valuable infrastructure, and directs his ire solely toward the senior leadership strata. He noted that the PLC maintains an extremely loyal rural party base, which in fact could prove challenging in the election. He noted that many people in rural areas, who are not well informed on the detrimental effects of the pacto, are committed to the PLC and see the party as the only vehicle capable of defeating the Sandinistas -- because these people have always voted Liberal, they will do so again. The Pacto Lives - - - - - - - - ¶8. (C) Rodriguez's disdain for PLC leadership stems largely from the pacto's negative impact on the party. He blames this agreement for weakening the PLC while at the same time strengthening their longtime enemies, the Sandinistas. His unease and dissatisfaction reached the boiling point shortly after the 2004 municipal elections, when it became clear that the PLC had surrendered several municipalities not based on results at the ballot box, but negotiated with the FSLN behind closed doors. He was especially frustrated in 2004 because the PLC did not reconvene following its defeat to discuss what went wrong. Rodriguez said that many in the party had expected greater introspection and drew upon the analogy that any respectable sports team would do the same following a loss. Instead, the party said that it was better to "move on." Rodriguez claims that the pacto is alive and well today and that the agreement has prompted Arnoldo Aleman to purposefully run a weak presidential campaign. ¶9. (C) Rodriguez also reported that he heard from a Manuel Zuniga, a former Sandinista mayor of La Dalia, that Aleman in the summer of 2005 agreed with Ortega that Ortega would win November's election in return for Aleman's freedom and a promise that the Liberals would take office in 2012. He claimed that Jaime Morales Carazo's decision to become Ortega's running mate is part of the deal. Rodriguez asserted that Ortega made Aleman choose a weak presidential candidate (i.e. Rizo) who could be easily beaten, and required an Aleman ally to join his campaign to appeal to non FSLN voters and demonstrate his moderate leanings and strengthen his own campaign. ¶10. (C) Rodriguez opined that Ortega maintains the upper hand in the pacto because his control over the judiciary gives him control over the keys to Aleman's freedom or imprisonment. Rodriguez speculated that if Ortega wins, contrary to Aleman's expectations, Ortega will probably further marginalize Aleman rather than liberate him. To reduce the international scrutiny that is bound to become focused on a Sandinista government, Ortega will attempt to improve his image -- and solidify his position -- by further prosecuting Aleman, returning him to prison, perhaps even sending him to Panama to face trial there. This move would enable him to burnish anti-corruption credentials. Frustrated By PLC "Mafia" - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶11. (C) Rodriguez likened the PLC to a mafia, and said that a common sentiment among party leaders is 'either you are with us or against us.' Following the 2004 elections he was told to "forget about it and move on." When asked how Aleman has managed to retain so much influence over the party, Rodriguez replied that Aleman draws much of his power from having been responsible for putting so many people into their positions. These people remain loyal to Aleman knowing that he could break them as well -- it is a loyalty born of the perceived threat of retribution if one steps out of line. He told Emboffs that because of his opposition to the party leadership he has been threatened. Rodriquez has subsequently begun adopting a greater awareness over his personal security, particularly while traveling. He now prefers to take buses or taxis to his destinations and minimizes motorcycle travel because he feels too vulnerable. GANARAM Stretching its Wings - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶12. (C) Rodriguez reported that GANARAM is gaining momentum and has representatives in 127 of Nicaragua's 153 municipalities. He said that while the movement is strongest in Matagalpa department, members are also present in Esteli, Nueva Segovia, Managua and its surroundings, and Jinotega. The group appears to enjoy the support of disparate former and current political officials -- including mayors, vice mayors, municipal council members, and other party representatives. He noted that GANARAM has contact with the ALN, including with Montealegre himself, Edmundo Leal (Montealegre's chief of staff) and other campaign figures. GANARAM appears to have at least some financial resources, as Rodriguez told Emboffs that the movement had recently paid for a television advertisement featuring Rodriguez. According to Rodriguez, the spot begins with him garbed in PLC colors expressing his disgust that the party leadership has become so far removed from party values. The bit ends with Rodriguez decked out in pro-Montealegre garb making the case for Liberals to vote for Montealegre, who embodies true Liberal politics. Rodriguez then concludes with the catchy Spanish equivalent of: "He who fools me once has no shame; he who fools me twice shames me." ¶13. (C) Comment: Emboffs plan further meetings with Rodriguez and other GANARAM adherents to explore their strength, reach, and overall plan. On the surface, the idea of committed and recognizable PLC members campaigning in their localities in favor of a pro-Montealegre vote may have more traction than similar efforts by the ALN, the Embassy, or any other organizations. End Comment. TRIVELLI