OAS EOM CHIEF SEES NO NEED FOR OCTOBER INTERIM

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 002074 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/USOAS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM NU SUBJECT: OAS EOM CHIEF SEES NO NEED FOR OCTOBER INTERIM REPORT, BUT WILL ISSUE ONE AT GON,S REQUEST REF: A. MANAGUA 1593 ¶B. MANAGUA 1555 ¶C. MANAGUA 0565 Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Ambassador and WHA/CEN director recently met with the OAS election mission to assess developments in the preparations for Nicaragua's November 5 elections. While Mission head Gustavo Fernandez sees no need for a second OAS interim report on Nicaragua's electoral process, Ambassador urged Fernandez to reconsider, noting that issuing a second report would allow OAS member countries to make observations. Fernandez clarified that OAS will issue a report if President Bolanos so requests. According to President Bolanos senior political adviser, President Bolanos intends to request a second report. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Ambassador, WHA director John Feeley, DCM, and polcouns met on September 12 with the OAS EOM leader Gustavo Fernandez and OAS-contracted technical director Patricio Gajardo to discuss preparations for Nicaragua's November 5 elections. Fernandez saw no need for a second OAS interim report on Nicaragua's electoral process, noting his plans to issue public statements instead. According to Fernandez, the Nicaraguan government (GON) has agreed with this approach. Ambassador urged Fernandez to reconsider, noting that issuing a second report would allow OAS member countries to make observations. Fernandez clarified that he will respect the wishes of the GON; if Bolanos requests a second report, the OAS will comply. FACILITATING CLOSURE ON IRI CASE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) Fernandez was supportive of Ambassador's assertion that the Supreme Electoral Council's (CSE) attacks against the International Republican Institute (IRI) are unmerited and politically driven -- in part to raise a smoke screen to divert attention from the CSE's flawed regulations concerning vote result challenges (impugnaciones). Fernandez offered to weigh in with CSE President Roberto Rivas on the IRI case. THE DEVIL'S IN THE REGS - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (SBU) Continuing on the subject of impugnaciones, Fernandez shared that the CSE has welcomed additional OAS input. Fernandez asserted that the regulations are flawed and confusing, specifically regarding the nullification of vote tabulations at voting tables (JRVs),vote result challenges (impugnaciones),and appeals. However, contrary to the view of Etica y Transparencia (ET) leader Roberto Courtney and others, Fernandez did not see a problem with the regulation requiring signatures of the JRV officials and party poll watchers (fiscales) to verify the result of the vote tally because if an official or fiscal refuses to sign, he/she must justify the refusal. Further, not requiring the signatures of all officials/fiscales would present a greater risk because certain political parties could connive and agree on inaccurate vote tallies without the approval of other parties. CSE TO ISSUE 200,000 TEMPORARY VOTING DOCUMENTS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (SBU) Fernandez shared that the CSE will issue some 200,000 temporary voting documents (documentos supletorios) and must also deliver up to (many have not been retrieved for years) 170,000 national ID/voter cards, or cedulas (many of these cedulas have been in the CSE's possession for years). The OAS will accompany the CSE in the document delivery process. Regarding the CSE's inflated voter roll (padron),Fernandez confirmed that the CSE has closed the list, estimating that while the roll contains as many as 3.5 million supposedly eligible voters, probably only 2.4 million of the names are current because included in the roll are thousands of Nicaraguans residing abroad and hundreds of deceased. OAS BEEFS UP OBSERVATION TEAM, FOLDS IN "NOTABLES" - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) Fernandez reported that the OAS will increase its number of observers from 130 to 200 to ensure better coverage of the electoral process. He noted that despite its efforts, the OAS was unable to arrange for the arrival of the Madrid Club "group of notables" well in advance of the OAS observation team. Rather, the notables will be incorporated into the OAS team. (COMMENT: According to senior Bolanos advisers, the OAS caved to Sandinista Front (FSLN) pressure to refrain from bringing in the Madrid Club notables in September to participate in conferences with political parties/civil society and meet with the press. In light of Daniel Ortega's criticism of what he terms the OAS' political meddling in the electoral process, the notables program as a stand alone event was shelved. Ironically, it was Ortega who originally insisted that the OAS contain both a technical and political team, the latter to make sure "the gringos" did not step out of bounds.) CAPUTO TO FOCUS ON GOVERNABILITY - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (C) Fernandez confirmed that Dante Caputo will arrive September 22 and will focus on helping the GON and political parties resolve the issue of constitutional changes scheduled to go into effect 20 January 2007. He added that the OAS has offered to help print a flow chart/posters of the voting process for use at the JRVs tables and to inform officials, party poll watchers, observers, and the public. OAS will check with IFES to ensure they are not duplicating IFES' efforts (IFES is issuing the "step-by step" (paso por paso) manual.) ORTEGA COULD WIN IF THE LIBERALS REMAIN DIVIDED - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (C) To Fernandez, Ortega could win the November 5 election if the Liberals remain disunited. He remarked that Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) candidate Edmundo Jarquin's campaign is beating all expectations; while many people predicted that the MRS would lose steam following Herty Lewites' death, Jarquin has maintained, even increased, support for the MRS. Fernandez related that in his recent meeting with Jarquin, "Mundo" Jarquin told him that about 11 of his 18/20 points in the polls could potentially migrate to Montealegre on Election Day if these largely independent voters determine that Montealegre is the candidate who can beat Ortega. Fernandez, who appears well disposed towards Jarquin, noted that the MRS has the potential to eventually replace the FSLN. HOW MUCH FRAUD IS POSSIBLE, LIKELY? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶9. (C) Fernandez differed with the common assumption that Ortega can or will steal up to 5% of the vote. However, he concurred with Ambassador that the FSLN and PLC could use their control of the CSE to influence the elections of Assembly candidates via "minor" irregularities. Fernandez assured Ambassador that the OAS is taking precautions, including raising its number of observers to offset any efforts to commit fraud. The OAS will also work closely with other leading observation groups before releasing conclusive statements. GON WILLING TO RECONSIDER POSITION ON OAS INTERIM REPORT - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶10. (C) Later the same day, President Bolanos' chief of staff Leonardo Somarriba confirmed to WHA/CEN director John Feeley that the GON does not require a second interim report. Feeley suggested that the option of a second report could help pressure the CSE to stay on track. He added that a report would allow OAS member countries to keep Nicaragua's electoral process on the Hemisphere's radar scope and re-enforce the importance of international observers, especially in light of Ortega's continuing attacks on the OAS EOM. A second report would also allow OAS members to signal concern with any pre-electoral irregularities, should they occur. Somarriba explained that he had agreed with Fernandez' recommendation on the condition that Fernandez will speak out regarding any anomalies that arise from now until the November election. In light of Feeley's observations, however, Somarriba said the GON is willing to reconsider its position. (NOTE: On September 20, President Bolanos' senior political adviser informed polcouns that in light of concerns arising from the CSE's impugnaciones regulations, President Bolanos now plans on requesting a second interim OAS report.) TRIVELLI