OAS EOM CHIEF FERNANDEZ AND AMBASSADOR DISCUSS

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 001894

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/USOAS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2016
TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL
SUBJECT: OAS EOM CHIEF FERNANDEZ AND AMBASSADOR DISCUSS
ELECTION PREPARATIONS, NICARAGUA'S POLITICAL PANORAMA

REF: A. MANAGUA 1593 B. MANAGUA 1555

Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).1.

C) SUMMARY: Ambassador recently met with the OAS
election observer mission (EOM) to assess preparations for
Nicaragua's November 5 elections and discuss the country's
volatile political climate. EOM mission leader Gustavo
Fernandez expects the Supreme Electoral Commission (CSE) will
release its electoral regulations the week of August 28. The
OAS is confident the CSE will accredit both foreign and
domestic observers. It will press the CSE to allow domestic
poll watchers access to municipal, departmental, and regional
election centers, where electoral challenges (impugnaciones)
will be decided, on Election Day. Fernandez believes that a
post-election political crisis is less likely now that both
the Sandinista Front (FSLN) and the Liberal Constitutional
Party (PLC) want to shelve the constitutional changes that
would further erode presidential powers. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Ambassador, DCM, PAO, USAID deputy, USAID elections
coordinator, and polcouns met on August 24 with members of
the OAS election observer mission (EOM) to assess
preparations for Nicaragua's November 5 elections and discuss
the country's volatile political climate. Points discussed
follow.

OAS WILL NOT BOW TO FSLN ATTACKS
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3. (C) EOM leader Gustavo Fernandez acknowledged that FSLN
candidate Daniel Ortega is increasingly antagonistic towards
the OAS. While Ortega's personal and institutional attacks
were uncalled for, Fernandez preferred not to respond in kind
-- doing so would lower the OAS to Ortega's level, the media
would distort the OAS response, and the public might perceive
the OAS as another political player rather than a neutral
observer. We suggested the OAS consider issuing a communiquQ
that clarifies the OAS mission here and reiterates its
commitment to the Nicaraguan people.

EXPLAINING LOW TURNOUT FOR CEDULA APPLICATIONS
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4. (SBU) Fernandez was not surprised by the low turnout of
applicants for the national/voter ID card (cedula) during the
two-week extension period ending August 21 (8,600 new
applications were submitted),noting the time was nonetheless
useful because Nicaraguans could rectify problems with lost
cedulas (11,000 replacement requests were made). According
to Fernandez, who met with the Movimiento por Nicaragua (MpN)
leaders on August 23, the MpN study on cedula issuance was
flawed and partially misleading. He argued that the MpN had
inflated the numbers by combining 140,000 cedulas that have
been languishing in CSE offices since 1997 (no longer valid
in his view) with 185,000 more recently issued cedulas that
have not been retrieved. Additionally, some Nicaraguans are
simply not interested in obtaining their cedulas or voting.


5. (U) Comment: According to a recent IPADE survey, 40% of
the high school respondents had not applied for cedulas
because they do not have birth certificates, which could
partially explain the low turnout during the two-week cedula
application period and previously. In a press conference on
August 24, the MpN countered CSE assertions that the grace
period was largely a loss of resources, noting that ensuring
that 20,000 additional Nicaraguans will be able to exercise
their right to vote is worth the cost. End Comment.

DOMESTIC OBSERVER ACCESS
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6. (C) Responding to our concern over apparent delays in
accreditation of domestic observers, lack of access to
computation centers (thus far, ET has received 411
accreditations out of 6,990 submitted),Fernandez replied
that the CSE is proceeding in accrediting domestic observers,
department by department. He acknowledged that the CSE has
been unwilling to date to allow domestic observers in the
national vote computation center. His team will investigate
domestic access to regional and national computation centers
and suggest international and domestic observers rotate
through these sites to increase access.

UPDATING PARTY POLL WATCHER MANUALS, TRAINING
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7. (SBU) Fernandez shared that the CSE expects to release
the final electoral regulations the week of August 28, and
political parties and the OAS have provided input. He added
that two regulations are not yet finished and potentially
raise concern: the vote challenge (impugnaciones) process,
and the formula for National Assembly seat distribution among
the competing parties. The OAS is pressing for simple, clear
regulations on both matters, e.g., the exclusion of a soiled
tally sheet as grounds for nullifying the results of a voter
table (JRV). Fernandez voiced concern that IRI's party poll
watcher (fiscales) training manuals are based on outdated
materials (i.e., regulations, vote tabulation sheets,
credentials, etc.). The Ambassador noted that IRI has pulled
the old manuals and will provide updated manuals when the new
regulations are finalized.

NOT TO WORRY OVER VOTER IDS FOR POSSIBLE RUNOFF
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8. (SBU) Regarding our concern that Nicaraguan voters will
be unable to vote in the event of a runoff (December 21 if it
occurs) if the CSE retains their supplemental voting
documents, or documentos supletorios, on November 5,
Fernandez replied that the CSE has agreed to extend the
validity of these documents to January 10, 2007. It will not
take the documents from voters on November 5 as they have in
past elections.

OAS REPORTING PLANS
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9. (SBU) Fernandez noted the OAS preliminary report on
Nicaragua's election preparations will be released in
Washington on October 5. He added that its recent report on
the cedula issuance process was well received by many OAS
member states, including Ecuador, Chile, and Brazil.

GON AND CSE ON BOARD WITH VISIT OF "NOTABLES"
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10. (C) According to Fernandez, both the GON and CSE will
invite three former presidents -- Lagos, Hurtado, and
Paniagua -- to visit Nicaragua before and during the
elections. The former presidents will be used to tackle
sensitive political issues, such as the constitutional
reforms and Ley Marco.

POST-ELECTION PRIORITY: A NEW VOTER ROLL
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11. (SBU) Fernandez reiterated the need for the CSE to
create a new voter roll (padron) starting immediately after
the election and to periodically scrub the list thereafter.

ORTEGA'S EFFORTS TO MANIPULATE ELECTORAL LAW IN HIS FAVOR
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12. (C) The Ambassador related information from senior GON
officials and PLC affiliates that the FSLN will attempt to
manipulate the interpretation of the Electoral Law to his
advantage, specifically the stipulation that a candidate will
win on the first round if he/she receives at least 40% of the
vote, or at least 35% with a five-percent advantage to the
closest competitor. The FSLN is starting to argue that once
a candidate gets more than 35% of the vote, he/she does not
need a five-percent margin of victory. While the OAS
technical chief Gajardo had heard of this interpretation,
Fernandez was unaware of it. Both dismissed its validity,
but the OAS will pursue the matter.

WHAT DO TO ABOUT OBANDO
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13. (C) While Fernandez concurred with the Ambassador that
Cardinal Obando's opening the CSE's launching of the official
election campaign period on August 18 was inappropriate, he
offered no suggestions how to remedy the situation.
(Comment: We have engaged the Papal Nuncio on Obando's
inappropriate political role in the past and will revisit the
matter with him. Obando still enjoys robust popular support
and his "blessing" of Ortega's campaign may encourage some
previously anti-Ortega voters to reconsider their position.)

FRAMEWORK LAW/POST ELECTION GOVERNABILITY LESS OF AN ISSUE?
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14. (C) Fernandez opined that the Ley Marco has become "an
orphan law," with neither the FSLN nor the PLC supporting it,
while the emerging ALN and MRS parties remain ambivalent. He
expects it will be abrogated, noting that the visiting
presidents will take advantage of the candidates' desire to
consolidate their democratic credentials to broach a broader
issue: the need to depoliticize governmental institutions -
courts, CSE, etc. (Comment: Although legal interpretations
vary, the abrogation of the constitutional changes might
require votes by both the 2006 and the 2007 members of the
National Assembly. Ortega appears to be hedging his options.
If the current Assembly repeals the constitutional changes
and Ortega wins the November election, then he will press for
a second vote in January to abrogate the changes. If,
however, he loses the election, Ortega is likely to instruct
his legislators to block the second vote so that he can
continue to limit the Executive from the Assembly.)

LIBERAL DIVIDE, MRS SUPPORT ARE HOT-BUTTON POLITICAL ITEMS
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15. (C) Fernandez shared our view that the direction the
division of liberal votes among Rizo and Montealegre will
take is the most significant political process to monitor.
He was impressed with MRS candidate Mundo Jarquin, noting
that MRS numbers have not slipped since Herty Lewites'
passing. Fernandez also opined that the MRS may be pulling
more votes from the independent voters than the Sandinistas.
The Ambassador concurred with Fernandez that Nicaragua's
socio-political culture is evolving, noting that this
election could be the "caudillos' last hurrah." They also
agreed that the current electricity and water shortages could
sway voters to vote for one of the emerging parties as the
traditional corrupt and inefficient parties have failed in
delivering services to the people. (Comment: MRS contacts
assert the MRS is indeed whittling FSLN votes, arguing that
many FSLN supporters are reluctant to share their views in
polls out of fear that the FSLN will "threaten" them.)
TRIVELLI