CEDULA CRISIS FORCES EDG TO RECONSIDER PUBLIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 001630 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN AND EUR/ERA E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/25/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM GM CA DA SP FI JA NO NL SW NU SUBJECT: CEDULA CRISIS FORCES EDG TO RECONSIDER PUBLIC STATEMENT REF: A. MANAGUA 1565 ¶B. STATE 114848 ¶C. MANAGUA 1426 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Peter Brennan for reasons 1.4 (b and d ) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Nicaraguan Elections Donor Group (EDG) decided to reconsider releasing a public statement regarding the electoral process after leaders of the NGO Movimiento por Nicaragua (MpN) gave a presentation on their recent investigation revealing that large segments of the population are having difficulty applying for and/or obtaining their national/voter ID card (cedula). Canadian and USG representatives strongly argued for the release of an EDG statement, and the Finnish representative will bring the issue back to the European Union chiefs of mission for reconsideration. The EDG agreed to call a meeting between EDG chiefs of mission and Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) President Roberto Rivas to discuss the cedula problems. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Leaders of the NGO Movimiento por Nicaragua (MpN) presented their report on the state of cedula solicitation and issuance (ref A) to the EDG on July 25. Representatives from the German, Finnish, Norwegian, Canadian, and U.S. embassies were present, as well as officials from the EU mission to Nicaragua. The MpN representatives revealed that 81 percent of secondary students do not have a cedula in hand and stated that many municipalities are obstructing cedula application procedures by refusing to issue birth certificates (necessary to apply for a cedula) in an efficient manner -- at least to applicants not affiliated with the mayor's political party. ¶3. (C) In addition, MpN claimed that the CSE has accepted only 2,300 of 6,500 cedula applications from MpN's eight citizen attention centers and has only issued 80 cedulas so far. When asked by EU DCM Jose Luis Martinez if one particular party is benefiting from these manipulative tactics, MpN project coordinator Benjamin Lujo stated unequivocally that the Sandinista Front (FSLN) is the great beneficiary, as the FSLN controls the cedula issuance machinery and FSLN supporters have not had difficulty obtaining the document. (Comment: The FSLN's apparent advantage in enabling its followers to obtain cedulas and the "forced abstention" of non-FSLN supporters could tip the outcome of the November election in FSLN presidential candidate Daniel Ortega's favor. End Comment.) ¶4. (C) After the MpN representatives departed, German DCM and EDG chair Guenter Sautter asked if the Group would reconsider the appropriateness of releasing a public statement (ref C). Canadian Ambassador Mario Lague and Emboffs strongly argued in favor of issuing a statement. As an alternative to releasing a general statement (as drafted in version 4), Sautter and Emboffs proposed creating a declaration specifically regarding the cedula issue. As current holder of the EU presidency, the Finnish representative agreed to bring the issue back to the EU chiefs of mission for reconsideration. The Norwegian representative said she would present the proposals to her charge d'affairs, but that the Norwegians have decided to support the EU consensus. ¶5. (C) Martinez commented that issuing a declaration before the August 6 cedula application deadline may be too precipitous and suggested waiting until after the deadline passes to "verify the situation." Lague and Emboffs responded that a declaration after the deadline would be meaningless and encouraged a preventive, rather than a reactive posture from the EDG. Sautter then proposed arranging a meeting between the EDG ambassadors and CSE President Roberto Rivas to discuss cedulation. The Group agreed on this step, but poloff remarked that the obstructive measures of the mayors are equally as damaging to the cedulation process prior to the August 6 deadline and should also be addressed by the Group. ¶6. (C) Comment: Although the European embassy representatives did not directly challenge the EU COMs' decision to delay issuance of an EDG statement, several were clearly alarmed by the MpN presentation and seemed to personally agree with the need to speak out. Sautter mentioned to poloff before the meeting (without prompting) that he would again raise the issue of the EDG declaration. The Canadian Ambassador's impassioned argument in favor of making a statement seemed to convince everyone except Martinez. At least the Canadians seem to understand that the EDG's window of opportunity to make a positive difference in the Nicaraguan electoral process by speaking out against fraud is rapidly closing. BRENNAN