OAS ELECTION MISSION CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 001593 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/USOAS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2026 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM NU SUBJECT: OAS ELECTION MISSION CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH ON ELECTIONS, BEARISH ON POST-ELECTION GOVERNABILITY REF: A. MANAGUA 1555 ¶B. MANAGUA 0565 ¶C. 2005 MANAGUA 2806 Classified By: Charge d'affaires Peter M. Brennan. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Ambassador recently met with the OAS election mission to assess preparations for Nicaragua's November 5 elections. OAS mission leader Gustavo Fernandez said that the OAS is engaging the Supreme Electoral Commission (CSE) on electoral regulations. The OAS has recommended that party poll watchers be allowed to observe the national/voter ID (cedula) issuance process at all stages and to have access to vote computation centers on Election Day. The OAS has succeeded with some of its objectives, missed the mark in others. Although Fernandez believes that preparations for the elections are mostly on track, some crucial issues remain. He is also concerned that Nicaragua will wake up to a political crisis on January 20 when constitutional changes further eroding presidential powers go into effect and recommends the OAS help facilitate parties to reach a governability accord before the election. END SUMMARY. ELECTION PREPARATIONS MOSTLY ON TRACK, BUT CONCERNS REMAIN - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) Ambassador and team met with the OAS election mission on March 9 to assess the status of preparations for Nicaragua's November 5 elections and discuss post-election governability concerns. Although OAS election mission leader Gustavo Fernandez believed the election preparations are mostly on track, he shared remaining concerns: --Politicized CSE: The control of the CSE by two political parties (FSLN and PLC) who advocate for their own partisan interests inhibits impartiality and independence at all stages of the electoral process and disadvantages the other parties. However, any change in the current system will have to wait until the next government takes over. -- Cedula Access: Ambassador expressed concerns that the CSE/departmental/municipal branches are biased in handling cedula applications, according priority to FSLN supporters, while stalling on applications of other Nicaraguans. Fernandez promised to track this issue. (Note: The OAS met on July 19 with Movimiento por Nicaragua (Ref. A.),which is on the forefront of this issue.) --Voter Roll (Padron) Verification: Fernandez remarked that the recent voter roll verification only partially scrubbed the padron and that it did not address the number of deceased on the list. He suggested that in the future, all Nicaraguans who do not vote in two consecutive elections should be automatically removed from the padron. --Candidate Disqualifications (Inhibiciones): Fernandez noted that thus far no parties or candidates have been disqualified/disallowed participation for politically motivated reasons. --Preventing the "Raton Loco" ("Crazy Mouse"): Fernandez is optimistic that voters will be able to vote at the JRV near their place of residence, even if they do not appear on the list for that site if their cedula demonstrates they reside in the area. (Note: Political parties have used the "Raton Loco" to confuse, discourage, and block voters unaffiliated with their parties from voting to reduce the votes of competing parties.) --Impugning Voter Site Results: Fernandez remains concerned that the controlling parties in the CSE (FSLN and to a lesser degree PLC) will attempt to impugn the voting results at certain polling sites (JRVs) to stack the presidential and legislative elections in their favor and to the detriment of the other parties/candidates. ENSURING TRANSPARENCY AND EQUAL ACCESS FOR ALL PARTIES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) Fernandez related that his mission is engaging the CSE on electoral regulations to be released around the end of July. The OAS has recommended that party poll watchers of all political parties be allowed to observe the cedula issuance process at all stages and to have access to vote computation centers on Election Day. OAS INTERIM REPORT CARD - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) In March, Fernandez delineated a number of priorities that the OAS and other partners should address and resolve by June (Ref. B). The results are mixed: --Hold at least a month of voter registry (padron) verification to scrub it of deceased members, and other anomalies. Status: The CSE arranged only two consecutive weekends for verification. --Ensure all eligible Nicaraguans have national IDs (cedulas) so they can vote. Status: Many Nicaraguans, especially youth, do not have cedulas and have not even applied for them. According to an MpN study, less than 20% of voting age students in 165 secondary schools have cedulas. August 6 is the deadline for cedula application. --Make sure observers will have complete access to the process. Status: The OAS is pressing for this. --Ensure there are no disqualifications (inhibiciones) of candidates. Status: Thus far there have been no disqualifications. --Make sure there will be adequate training of electoral officials, party monitors (fiscales),and international and domestic observers. Status: Training is being provided. --Keep the OAS foot in the CSE's door to monitor and provide technical assistance to the electoral body. Status: The OAS believes its access is adequate. POST-ELECTION GOVERNABILITY A REAL CONCERN - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - ¶5. (C) After discussing the status of election preparations, Fernandez touched on his post-election concerns, warning that Nicaraguans could wake up to a political crisis on January 20 when constitutional changes further eroding presidential powers go into effect. He enumerated three possible solutions to stem this crisis. First, hold on November 5 (as the GON and PLC candidate Jose Rizo suggest) a referendum on the constitutional changes. Second, postpone the implementation of the constitutional changes (as ALN candidate Eduardo Montealegre suggests). Third, arrange for OAS and others to facilitate Nicaraguan parties to reach a governability accord before the election. Of these options, Fernandez favored the third because there is neither the will nor wherewithal to arrange a referendum at this late date. Further, the party that is the runner up in the November election will want to maintain as much control as possible over the executive through the National Assembly. ¶6. (C) OAS election mission political adviser Raul Alconada endorsed postponing the implementation of the constitutional changes until 2013, as ALN candidate Eduardo Montealegre has recommended. Along the lines of his and Dante Caputo's efforts last year (Ref. C),the OAS would help broker a new agreement among the political parties and GON, who then would convince the National Assembly to amend the Framework Law (Ley Marco) it passed last fall. ¶7. (C) Fernandez reiterated his view that neither the FSLN nor the PLC would sign on to such an accord before the November election because the second-place party will want to use the Assembly to maintain as much control as possible over the executive. He suggested that the governability accord could include committing all parties to respect the separation of powers, requiring a 2/3 legislative majority to appoint Supreme Court and CSE magistrates, and raising the minimum percentage threshold to win the presidential election. (Note: According to the current electoral law, a presidential candidate wins the election with 35 percent of the vote if he/she leads by at least 5 percent.) ¶8. (C) Alconada suggested that former Chilean President Lagos would be a more appropriate broker of an eventual governability accord, noting that the OAS role in ensuring a clean electoral process could be muddied if it engages in the post-election governability issue. Lagos and other former presidents of the region, who will present a workshop in Managua in late September, could help with the governability accord. Fernandez replied that he will leave it to SecGen Insulza to determine who should be involved. OAS PRESENCE ON THE GROUND - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶9. (SBU) Fernandez shared that three additional OAS experts will be in Managua, and he will return on August 21 to remain here. The OAS election mission's press coordinator, Juan Cristobal Soruco, who was present at the meeting, will also remain in country. COMMENT - - - - ¶10. (C) Tensions between Fernandez and Alconada were palpable. Alconada recently started working as Dante Caputo's deputy in Washington. Thus, he will not be as much engaged with the OAS election mission as previously arranged, and much of the political aspects of the mission will fall on Fernandez's shoulders. Fernandez is probably right that neither the PLC nor the FSLN would support a postponement of the implementation of the constitutional changes. However, reaching a governability accord may also prove to be unrealistic, and if achieved, it would carry no legal weight. Post will examine the objectives presented by the MpN, the Bolanos government, the OAS Democratic Charter, and other sources to compile essential points for a notional governability accord. BRENNAN