MRS CANDIDATE JARQUIN: "WE ARE THE RESPONSIBLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 001572 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI NU SUBJECT: MRS CANDIDATE JARQUIN: "WE ARE THE RESPONSIBLE LEFT" REF: MANAGUA 1482 Classified By: CDA Peter Brennan for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) Summary: New MRS presidential candidate Edmundo Jarquin assured Ambassador that he will continue deceased candidate Herty Lewites' strategy of pursuing "responsible" social and economic policies and a productive relationship with the USG. Jarquin admitted that he struggles with name recognition relative to the other candidates, but predicted that he will rise in the polls after the launch of a new publicity campaign. He stated that Nicaragua has been held back by the PLC-FSLN political pact, but that President Bolanos will leave Nicaragua in good macroeconomic health. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Ambassador and poloffs met with new MRS presidential candidate Edmundo Jarquin and senior advisor Victor Hugo Tinoco on July 14 to discuss the death of former candidate Herty Lewites (reftel) and MRS' election strategy. Jarquin stated that the MRS represents the "responsible left" in Nicaragua and will promote economic and social policies that benefit Nicaragua, noting that the policies of extreme left- and right-wing governments have failed in Latin America. The MRS will also pursue a productive relationship with the USG. (Note: Ambassador mentioned recent press interviews with MRS vice presidential candidate Carlos Mejia Godoy, in which Mejia Godoy stood by the refrain he wrote for the FSLN party anthem that refers to the U.S. as the "enemy of humanity." Ambassador suggested that Jarquin could speak with Mejia Godoy about a more nuanced response. Jarquin responded that he "understood." End Note.) ¶3. (C) Jarquin was generally positive regarding the MRS' chances in the upcoming national elections, but did admit that he struggles with name recognition relative to the other candidates, and that his party has the smallest financial resources. He confirmed that the MRS will focus its resources in certain geographic areas where it draws the most support. (Comment: Jarquin was not specific, but Lewites had the highest poll numbers in Managua and other departments in the central Pacific region. Likewise, MRS contacts in Rivas, Matagalpa, Boaco, and Jinotega have complained of being starved of funds from the national campaign. End Comment.) ¶4. (C) Jarquin is confident that an MRS media campaign highlighting Lewites' legacy with the party will improve his poll numbers. (The latest MRS ad features Jarquin and Mejia Godoy leading a candlelight vigil in honor of Lewites and promising they will continue his legacy.) He also noted considerable progress in the IRI-sponsored training of MRS party poll watchers (fiscales). Jarquin and Tinoco commented that 30 percent of self-identified Sandinistas support the MRS, plus a considerable number of independent voters that "want change." ¶5. (C) Jarquin agreed with the Ambassador that Nicaragua has considerable potential for growth as long as the country does not "take a step backward" after the elections. He opined that, unlike his predecessors, President Bolanos will leave Nicaragua in good macroeconomic health and (referring to Bolanos' low approval rating) "history will judge him differently." Jarquin emphasized the need for Nicaragua to enjoy an independent and professional judiciary, unlike the pact-controlled politicized institution that currently exists. ¶6. (C) Comment: Jarquin is an affable and erudite technocrat with many years of experience in international institutions. He admitted that his many years spent outside of Nicaragua have cost him in terms of recognition and credibility, but believes that the public will ultimately support him as an anti-pact, moderately left-wing alternative to FSLN candidate Daniel Ortega. Jarquin does not project the folksy charisma that made Lewites so popular, but his running mate, legendary revolutionary songwriter (and womanizer) Carlos Mejia Godoy could compensate by balancing the MRS ticket. BRENNAN