MARTINEZ CUENCA: SECOND THOUGHTS ON REFUSING

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 001513 SIPDIS SIPDIS WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM NU SUBJECT: MARTINEZ CUENCA: SECOND THOUGHTS ON REFUSING LEWITES, OFFER TO RUN AS VP CANDIDATE REF: A. MANAGUA 1482 ¶B. MANAGUA 1220 ¶C. MANAGUA 1210 Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). ¶1. (C) Alejandro Martinez Cuenca shared with Ambassador, DCM, and polcouns on July 7 his regret for not having accepted Sandinista Renewal Movement (MRS) Herty Lewites' invitation to run as his VP for the November 5 presidential race (Reftels). He recounted how a clairvoyant Lewites had feared he would die before the election. With Herty no longer in the picture, Martinez Cuenca fears the MRS will lose much of its support, citing a Nuevo Diario website poll showing respondents overwhelmingly opposed to the new MRS ticket. He added that a number of Sandinistas have also told him that he, not Edmundo Jarquin, should have replaced Lewites. Martinez Cuenca predicted that some of the MRS's independent-minded supporters will switch to PLC dissident Eduardo Montealegre, a few Sandinistas will return to FSLN candidate Daniel Ortega, while other pro-Herty Sandinistas may well abstain, thus hurting Ortega's campaign. A POSSIBLE PLACE IN THE MRS - IF THE PRINCIPLES FIT - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) Despite the setback of Herty's death, Martinez Cuenca believes that the MRS is possibly salvageable, noting that he had offered to help the MRS campaign in some capacity. He then enumerated three ideals that the MRS must uphold if he is to support it: democracy, tolerance, and rule of law - in sum, a re-engineering or transformation of Nicaraguan government. Martinez Cuenca concurred with Ambassador's suggestion of a fourth principle -- the separation of party and government -- noting that when Lewites was Mayor of Managua, he had served all Managuans, regardless of political ilk. ORTEGA HAS THE CHURCH IN HIS POCKET? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) Martinez Cuenca reiterated his previous warning that Ortega is emboldened by Cardinal Obando y Bravo's open endorsement, even suspecting that Ortega's recent visit to Rome may have included a meeting with the Vatican. He speculated that the Catholic Church might be willing to "accept" Ortega in exchange for assurances that if elected he will support the Catholic Church and limit the influence of the growing Evangelical movement. Ambassador replied that both the Nuncio and Archbishop Brenes have voiced concern that Obando's association with Ortega could give Ortega an unfair edge, and thus we doubt the Vatican would endorse Ortega - either publicly or privately. We offered, however, to verify that Ortega did not/not meet with Vatican officials. (NOTE: According to Ortega's press statements, he met with a number of Italian mayors to arrange municipal exchanges.) CSE PRESIDENT TELLS HIM ORTEGA VICTORY A "DONE DEAL" - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) Martinez Cuenca then recounted how in September 2005, Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) President Roberto Rivas (whose mother is Obando y Bravo's personal secretary) informed him that Ortega's victory is "a done deal," suggesting that "it would be better to wait your turn." According to Martinez Cuenca, further proof of Ortega's "arrogance" was his refusal to meet with former President Jimmy Carter at Carter's hotel -- thereby conveying the signal that as Nicaragua's next president, Ortega should not go to Carter. COMMENT - - - - ¶5. (C) Martinez Cuenca was fishing for our views on his role in Nicaragua's political landscape. He appears to genuinely regret not having accepted Lewites' offer to run with him and is clearly disaffected with the MRS' new ticket -- probably because he believes he should have been offered the presidential or vice-presidential slot. Undoubtedly, Martinez Cuenca is a much more moderate and qualified candidate than Mejia Godoy, who has publicly stated he still considers the U.S. an enemy -- even though he also claims he would be willing to engage us (his son was discharged from U.S. military service in a highly publicized case after refusing to serve a second tour in Iraq). Martinez Cuenca's concerns over Obando's endorsement of Ortega are also valid and we have heard similar concerns from Nicaragua's private sector. Nonetheless, we see no evidence of Vatican support for Ortega. TRIVELLI